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-   -   Swarm / RoR Approach (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=31124)

evajb001 18th May 2016 11:44 AM

Swarm / RoR Approach
 
Off the back of the discussion in the general section I've taken a bit of a mechanical approach to what was talked about in the Swarm thread. Basically I've taken 7 ratings sources and created a single rating to price the runners. I've adjusted the weighting for each race based on race distance and race prizemoney and the historical results each ratings source has had in those race bands. The following are the top 4 raters and my calculated odds based on a 117% market for the races today with what I deem enough data for the ratings to be viable.

What i've decided to do just for a bit of fun today is back the runners in the top 4 that are overlays (or thereabouts) based on current fixed odds with only backing a maximum of two per race. I hope that makes sense and i've marked them with an X below.

Will be interesting to see how the Swarm / Rating of Ratings approach goes for a bit of fun and maybe some further discussion either in this thread or the thread in the general forum.

IPSWICH - 3
1 - 1 - VA VA VENI - $2.72 X
2 - 4 - PANNO ROSSA - $4.87
3 - 3 - DENONINATOR - $5.67
4 - 2 - ELECTRIC DEE JAY - $5.99 X

IPSWICH - 4
1 - 3 - MOSS HARRY - $3.48
2 - 2 - SUNSET SHOWDOWN - $5.30 X
3 - 5 - LORD TSCHARKE - $5.33
4 - 1 - MR CHA CHA - $6.29 X

IPSWICH - 6
1 - 3 - BEAUXBATON - $3.30 X
2 - 1 - JACK LANCASTER - $4.44 X
3 - 2 - MY COUSIN BOSSY - $4.57
4 - 5 - NO MORE MISTAKES - $8.45

IPSWICH - 7
1 - 5 - TOP TONE - $3.23
2 - 6 - RED BOWERS - $3.56 X
3 - 3 - G'DAY OLD MATE - $4.75 X
4 - 2 - CASARATI - $9.62

IPSWICH - 8
1 - 9 - MAGAZINE MISS - $5.32 X
2 - 2 - TESTATIME - $5.32
3 - 4 - NEVETUS - $6.76 X
4 - 3 - TAMBO'S HEART - $6.79

RANDWICK - 4
1 - 5 - VASSAL - $4.58
2 - 4 - HUNTER JACK - $5.36 X
3 - 11 - HOLLYWOOD BARBIE - $5.42
4 - 9 - LANI GIRL - $6.36 X

RANDWICK - 5
1 - 10 - DINGHU MOUNTAIN - $3.56
2 - 13 - GOLDEN SHOES - $4.14 X
3 - 6 - OH SO ADORABLE - $9.50 X
4 - 7 - GENDEBIEN - $10.07

RANDWICK - 6
1 - 14 - CIARLET - $2.63 X
2 - 12 - PASSIONFLOWER - $8.41 X
3 - 5 - KEIKOSAN - $10.20
4 - 7 - WAHNG WAH - $11.53

RANDWICK - 7
1 - 1 - FAROLITOS - $3.84 X
2 - 16 - PIRATE BEN - $5.02 X
3 - 5 - MONTAUK - $5.10
4 - 14 - TENDER - $6.64

BALLARAT - 5
1 - 2 - VIANDEN - $3.32 X
2 - 1 - FELLSPUR - $3.70 X
3 - 8 - EFFORTLESS MISS - $7.22
4 - 4 - FOUR BY FOUR - $7.83

BALLARAT - 6
1 - 2 - CHASE THE HORIZON - $2.62 X
2 - 3 - CHARLIE GARCON - $4.35
3 - 10 - SHADOWBROOK LASS - $5.21 X
4 - 4 - THE CARD PLAYERS - $6.33

BALLARAT - 7
1 - 5 - ROCKETS RED GLARE - $2.90 X
2 - 7 - GOD FORBID - $4.77 X
3 - 1 - JARRAH TWIST - $5.98
4 - 9 - PRINCE TARKEIDA - $6.57

BALLARAT - 8
1 - 8 - HESHIMA - $3.76 X
2 - 4 - BETTER LAND - $3.90
3 - 3 - NAME THE DAY - $4.44 X
4 - 6 - DECOUPEZ - $6.99

MURRAY BRIDGE - 4
1 - 4 - JOCKS GLEN - $3.40 X
2 - 5 - ROD'S OPINION - $3.48 X
3 - 3 - UMALUKA - $3.78
4 - 2 - NOT A ZERPRISE - $4.80

MURRAY BRIDGE - 5
1 - 5 - KOSMOS TERCEDES - $3.75 X
2 - 3 - THE OTHER GUY - $3.88
3 - 1 - WISE JOURNEY - $4.05 X
4 - 2 - WHERE'S TIM - $4.80

MURRAY BRIDGE - 6
1 - 2 - COOL TARGET - $2.77 X
2 - 4 - MR LAMBORGHINI - $3.99 X
3 - 1 - EXALTED LIGHTNING - $7.15
4 - 9 - FLYING SKIPPER - $11.44

MURRAY BRIDGE - 7
1 - 3 - SHELBY APPLES - $2.33 X
2 - 1 - GEORDIE'S SECOND - $4.25 X
3 - 4 - CRYSTAL MOMENT - $5.11
4 - 2 - GALRIGUEZ - $9.51

MURRAY BRIDGE - 8
1 - 8 - MANHATTAN MELODY - $4.72
2 - 2 - WISE AND HAPPY - $5.17 X
3 - 3 - ALITAKA - $5.24 X
4 - 6 - BELEAGUER - $5.81

BELMONT - 2
1 - 1 - PARIS OF TROY - $3.97 X
2 - 5 - BORDER SCOT - $4.42
3 - 2 - SECRET ASSAULT - $5.28
4 - 7 - TIRRENO - $5.58 X

BELMONT - 5
1 - 3 - LOW FLYING - $4.82 X
2 - 2 - WINZA MOMENT - $6.08 X
3 - 4 - RIPPER RIO - $6.54
4 - 8 - LE SCHILLER - $7.70

BELMONT - 6
1 - 8 - RULING ANGEL - $5.38 X
2 - 2 - ASSURANCE - $5.78
3 - 3 - CYBERPUNK - $6.28 X
4 - 1 - FLYING IMAGE - $7.62

Every Topic 18th May 2016 05:21 PM

Belmont race 5 you would have picked up a very nice trifecta lol
about 2 grand.
well done

evajb001 18th May 2016 06:44 PM

Results Today:

Betting all 4 (Win):
1) -9.7u / 19.0% SR
2) +17.7u / 33.3% SR
3) -2.8u / 4.8% SR
4) +30.3u / 19.0% SR

Overall +35.5u

Betting all 4 (Place):
1) -5.1u / 38.1% SR
2) +11.3u / 66.7% SR
3) +8.1u / 47.6% SR
4) -1.6u / 28.6% SR

Overall +12.7u

Betting overlays (Win - those marked X)
1) -9.6u / 13.3% SR
2) +18.3u / 33.3% SR
3) -8.0u / 0.0% SR
4) +4.9u / 25.0% SR

Overall +5.6u

Betting overlays (Place - those marked X)
1) -3.0u / 33.3% SR
2) +7.2u / 53.3% SR
3) +10.0u / 62.5% SR
4) -1.3u / 25.0% SR

Overall +12.9u

Only one day so not going to go and start looking for ferrari's but nice results. I have a hunch that the 2nd to 4th rated horses will show the better results because they are more likely to be the underbet horses whereas the top rater is likely to be the top favorite or a horse that is overbet in the market and hence offers no value.

In addition to the above if boxing all 4 in each race you would've hit 52.4% quinella's for +$49.2 if betting $12 for 100%. If boxing all 4 in each race you would've hit 38.1% trifectas for +$2,407.5 if betting $24 for 100%.

I'll try and run this over a week long period time permitting to see how it goes.

Every Topic 18th May 2016 06:54 PM

Not sure what prices you are using.
e.g. Le Schiller paid $21.40 on Tatts tote but you are quoting $7.70 above.

Your selections are very similar to the Skyform ratings - which I guess makes sense.

Hope you post again on this, it is interesting.

evajb001 18th May 2016 06:56 PM

The prices in the first post are my own quoted prices based on the % chance I believe each horse has of winning by combining the ratings from a number of various sources.

The results i've shown were top tote (win), mid tote (place) and tatts (exotics).

evajb001 19th May 2016 12:53 PM

Here's the picks for today lets see if it collapses in a heap or not:

TOWNSVILLE - 3
1 - 4 - SAIL THE STARS - $3.53
2 - 5 - TRY ME DOL - $4.22 X
3 - 1 - STANDFORD - $6.34 X
4 - 6 - VO TREASURE - $6.82

TOWNSVILLE - 4
1 - 3 - ROSIE'S COMMAND - $2.8 X
2 - 2 - ONE FOR THE MONEY - $2.96
3 - 4 - ZIGGY'S SPIRIT - $6.62 X
4 - 5 - RAINING DOLLARS - $8.26

TOWNSVILLE - 5
1 - 2 - GUEPARDO - $2.56 X
2 - 4 - MAN AROUND TOWN - $4.12
3 - 9 - SERGEANT SHRIVER - $9.42
4 - 7 - SUSSEX STREET - $11.1 X

TOWNSVILLE - 6
1 - 2 - MOUNTAIN VIEW - $5.31
2 - 3 - OKAY SWIFT - $5.32 X
3 - 7 - LOCEANO - $6.04
4 - 6 - KING COBIA - $6.13 X

TOWNSVILLE - 7
1 - 1 - KAYLEE - $2.67 X
2 - 6 - CORONATION JOURNEY - $5.62 X
3 - 8 - THE HANKINATOR - $6.14
4 - 4 - CARLINO'S WAY - $6.48

HAWKESBURY - 3
1 - 1 - ADJECTIVE - $3.37 X
2 - 6 - ART OF EXCELLENCE - $3.46 X
3 - 4 - WINNING SUPREME - $5.73
4 - 5 - NAVUA MIST - $6.2

HAWKESBURY - 4
1 - 1 - COLONEL CUSTER - $2.35 X
2 - 2 - STAR APPEARANCE - $2.78
3 - 4 - SAYRIEN - $5.99 X
4 - 3 - ANTHONY'S BEST - $10.84

HAWKESBURY - 5
1 - 2 - SACRED JOURNEY - $4.72 X
2 - 3 - CHARMING LAD - $5.36 X
3 - 1 - RUSSIAN RIVER - $6.15
4 - 5 - RADICAL IMPACT - $6.78

HAWKESBURY - 6
1 - 2 - ZEDFAST - $2.23 X
2 - 4 - GET ON THE GRANGE - $6.62 X
3 - 8 - SET PIECE - $9.75
4 - 7 - ROCK MYLADY - $10.14

ARARAT - 5
1 - 7 - CRAFTY DEVIL - $4.72
2 - 4 - TREAT ME RIGHT - $5.07
3 - 5 - KAYE CLUB - $6
4 - 1 - NORDIC DUKE - $7.69 X

ARARAT - 6
1 - 1 - DANGEROUS BREEDING - $2.83
2 - 10 - LUSKIN BELLE - $5.67
3 - 4 - SAVAGE COUP - $5.99 X
4 - 3 - KOLONAKI - $6.43 X

ARARAT - 7
1 - 3 - VAIN KINGDOM - $4.83
2 - 5 - WRITTEN ADDICTION - $6.43 X
3 - 1 - DEXTEROUS - $7.21
4 - 12 - LEMON SOJU - $7.99 X

ARARAT - 8
1 - 2 - IN FAIRNESS - $5.43
2 - 11 - RISING HOPE - $6.47
3 - 3 - SAGAPUSS - $6.73 X
4 - 12 - SATURDAY FIRST - $7.32 X

PINJARRA - 6
1 - 4 - YOU'RE UP - $5.09
2 - 2 - WELL SPOKEN MAN - $5.15 X
3 - 9 - OUR ROYAL DEMON - $5.76 X
4 - 5 - UNIVERSAL KING - $9.13

PINJARRA - 7
1 - 9 - BORN BLUE - $4.61 X
2 - 6 - GENEROUS CHOICE - $5.99
3 - 2 - ANCIENT SPELL - $7.66 X
4 - 7 - I DONE IT - $7.74

PINJARRA - 8
1 - 4 - SECRET MINX - $2.17 X
2 - 1 - NICCATRICE - $3.42 X
3 - 5 - COMPANY EXCHANGE - $13.09
4 - 3 - FRINGED - $14.11

PINJARRA - 9
1 - 9 - UPTOWN FUNK - $5.21 X
2 - 10 - BELLA BLITZ - $5.89 X
3 - 5 - WICHITA LINESMAN - $5.92
4 - 6 - AWESOME AS - $6.92

PAKENHAM - 5
1 - 3 - MURPHY'S REWARD - $3.89
2 - 5 - MELANION - $4.64 X
3 - 2 - TYCOON FELIX - $5.29
4 - 1 - NITRO NICK - $5.46

PAKENHAM - 6
1 - 2 - ARCTIC SONG - $2.58 X
2 - 7 - OXBOW - $4.53 X
3 - 3 - ALL ABOUT RHYTHM - $5.2
4 - 6 - HONFLEURS - $5.55

PAKENHAM - 7
1 - 4 - ORUJO - $4.64 X
2 - 2 - SOLAR DUCHESS - $5.6 X
3 - 10 - TYKIATO - $5.79
4 - 7 - HOTEL SIERRA - $6.13

PAKENHAM - 8
1 - 5 - INTRIGO - $4.7 X
2 - 9 - EOLANDE - $5.78
3 - 4 - ANGEL EIGHT - $6.99 X
4 - 10 - CRAFTY MISS - $7.06

evajb001 20th May 2016 11:54 AM

Here are todays bets. I'll post the results to date later today as well with some discussion around everything.

ROCKHAMPTON - 1
1 - 8 - ALPINTORO - $2.75 X
2 - 1 - COVENTRY - $3.89 X
3 - 3 - MONSIEUR HUGHES - $6.81
4 - 5 - TIP RAT - $8.54

ROCKHAMPTON - 7
1 - 5 - STAR FURY - $5.39
2 - 4 - MUSCOVY - $7.04
3 - 6 - DEEP DOWN - $7.12
4 - 1 - CORNISH TALES - $7.12

WAGGA - 2
1 - 1 - DIRECT STRATEGY - $2.07 X
2 - 2 - NOBLE DESCENT - $5.02
3 - 3 - WILLY WHITE SOCKS - $5.78 X
4 - 4 - HELLO CHINA - $9.17

WAGGA - 5
1 - 1 - JO JO GIRL - $4.18
2 - 2 - SURGING WAVE - $4.42
3 - 3 - VIDEO SHOW - $5.04 X
4 - 7 - ASHTOMINA - $8.01

WAGGA - 6
1 - 8 - STRATUM'S SIREN - $3.53
2 - 1 - HUSSON'S SHOUT - $5.38 X
3 - 9 - TUDOR RULE - $6.4 X
4 - 2 - AXION - $7.28

WAGGA - 7
1 - 13 - WAITAHA PROPHECY - $4.91 X
2 - 10 - TO A DEGREE - $5.05 X
3 - 3 - CHINZIA - $5.33
4 - 1 - ULTIMA CHANCE - $9.39

GEELONG - 5
1 - 5 - WESTERN HUNTER - $3.31 X
2 - 6 - WOLF EYES - $4.69 X
3 - 7 - STREET PRIDE - $5.85
4 - 4 - ASCENDANCE - $5.99

GEELONG - 6
1 - 2 - BLUE VIPER - $4.28
2 - 8 - SUPREME GODDESS - $4.37 X
3 - 5 - IT'S A GUN - $6.29 X
4 - 4 - EYE CONTACT - $8

GEELONG - 7
1 - 1 - COOL COOL WORLD - $4.48 X
2 - 4 - BARNSLEY - $5.08
3 - 2 - DUGAN - $6.83 X
4 - 7 - SHORTSPRESSO - $6.96

GEELONG - 8
1 - 6 - ROBBIE'S STAR - $5.4
2 - 5 - LAST DEAL - $5.66 X
3 - 4 - GIANT CIRCUS - $6.77 X
4 - 8 - DYNAMIC DAY - $6.79

GEELONG - 9
1 - 7 - SALAMAAT - $5.64
2 - 3 - SANGRE CALIENTE - $6.07 X
3 - 1 - HOLLYWOOD TYCOON - $6.68 X
4 - 10 - THE BIG LABROWNSKI - $7.49

GRAFTON - 3
1 - 4 - CONGRESS - $3.9 X
2 - 3 - STAR OF LEGS - $4.66
3 - 6 - BINGO BOBBY - $4.8
4 - 1 - NEURUM ROAD - $5.23

GRAFTON - 4
1 - 5 - EL TOBY - $3.45 X
2 - 2 - KINGSTON TIME - $5.26 X
3 - 7 - REFUSTRESS - $5.64
4 - 6 - CAMAYOC - $5.65

GRAFTON - 6
1 - 1 - AIMALAC MILLIE - $3.82
2 - 5 - I LIKE CANDY - $5.61
3 - 2 - INCUBUS - $6.82 X
4 - 3 - ZIZUMBA - $7.93

GRAFTON - 7
1 - 9 - FAR DOOLEY - $4.16 X
2 - 6 - REDWOLF - $4.57 X
3 - 4 - KNIGHT TEMPLAR - $6.73
4 - 7 - EBONY REIN - $6.89

CRANBOURNE - 5
1 - 4 - MUST BE MINK - $3.91
2 - 1 - YELLEN - $5.57
3 - 5 - A LITTLEBITOFCLASS - $6.24
4 - 7 - DYMPHNA - $6.26 X

CRANBOURNE - 7
1 - 1 - KING DEANO - $4.29 X
2 - 6 - PRAECEREUS - $4.96
3 - 4 - TAVERNIER BLUE - $6.64
4 - 11 - RED BIDDY - $9.3 X

CRANBOURNE - 8
1 - 3 - CHIAVARI - $3.36 X
2 - 1 - JUNGLE EDGE - $5.1 X
3 - 4 - BELLE MELBA - $5.95
4 - 11 - GEMMALENAH - $7.46


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