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Price Winning Percentage
I know it is in here somewhere but can't find it, can anyone tell me the percentage chance based on fav position if winning.
Fav winning 30% 2nd fav winning ? 3rd fav wining? I know price plays a big factor but am just after an estimate. |
Roughly
34% 22% 15% |
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cheers mate, that's a bit higher than i thought. |
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I actually wrote them down without looking it up but then went and checked the database to confirm. The numbers are right. |
So if one were Multi Betting then the first 3 in the betting would be the ones to concentate on @ 71% strike rate.
Might actually trial this. Thanks. |
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The payouts will be hopeless. Not worth it. |
Yes.
The prices and returns were hopeless. Didn,t take me long to chuck that idea aside. |
FAV 30%
2nd- 25 3rd- 15 4th- 10 5th- 5 Total 85% Favs % can vary a bit depending on number ot odds on shots in sample batch. If you remove all odds on shots in that 1st FAVs 30% fig. S/R drops to 27% |
Metro Melb Sat only 1850 Races, 6 Dead Heats
PrePost Herald Sun, Divs Are BSP--Figures are rounded
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The more I play with the stats the more i realise that the price is the indicator of success.
This table looks at races (287,983) and uses TAB price with Fav. Rank to generate WSR's. The selected field size was 9 - 13 starters. RANK..........1.............2............3........ .....4........ $2.0...........44.8%......XX........XX..........XX $2.5...........34.1.........XX........XX.......... XX $3.0...........28.7........29.9.......33.3........ .XX $3.5...........23.7........23.3.......24.1........ .XX $4.0...........20.0........20.2.......18.4........ 16.7 $4.5...........17.9........18.1.......17.6........ 19.3 $5.0...........15.6........14.9.......14.7........ 12.9 The average Aus Field is 11 (rounded .... I can't deal with 0.18 of a horse). Doubtless it would be possible to correct either/both WSR and Price to BSP (I haven't looked). |
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