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-   -   Will this fly? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=27556)

SpeedyBen 17th November 2013 06:00 PM

Will this fly?
 
I want to put my under employed bot to work on Oz races and I have been trying to find a method of doing so for some time. I think I have found it but I need a little info. My method revolves around backing favs where they are also top rated on a set of ratings which come into my possession daily. Over a lengthy period it has consistently hit at 40% and has shown a 2.5% pot using Vic tote divies. I'm confident that it will do better on BF and may even be quite lucrative.
My question is can anyone tell me how much better BF is than Vic tote on winners ( or just runners ) priced at 4.5 (approx) or lower?

michaelg 17th November 2013 06:37 PM

Speedy Ben, the Tab takes out about 16% commission on Win bets and generally a further few percentage points by shaving the dividend to comply with their $0.05 rule.

Hopefully this explains the "shaving" rule which has been referred to as Ned Kellyesque or tantamount to theft.

Good luck.

UselessBettor 17th November 2013 06:39 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
I want to put my under employed bot to work on Oz races and I have been trying to find a method of doing so for some time. I think I have found it but I need a little info. My method revolves around backing favs where they are also top rated on a set of ratings which come into my possession daily. Over a lengthy period it has consistently hit at 40% and has shown a 2.5% pot using Vic tote divies. I'm confident that it will do better on BF and may even be quite lucrative.
My question is can anyone tell me how much better BF is than Vic tote on winners ( or just runners ) priced at 4.5 (approx) or lower?
That's a large range.

Acording to my figures after commission betfair pays about 7% less then best tote returns in that range.

I don't keep the individual totes prices anymore so can't do a compare to that.

UselessBettor 17th November 2013 06:42 PM

Compare that to $20+ winners and betfair pays 217% more

The value on betfair is on the longer selections. After commission the shorter selections just don't work out to be any better value.

beton 17th November 2013 07:33 PM

I concur with UB. BF is less below $5. I have some figures but the filing system has gone for a holiday.

evajb001 18th November 2013 08:51 AM

UB or anyone else with the relevant database, are you able to estimate where the breakeven point is between best-tote and betfair then?

Does that mean one of the companies who offer Best Tote +5% would be the best option for basically anything under $5 ignoring the possibility of restrictions or bans?

beton 18th November 2013 09:52 AM

Breakeven BF / Best tote $8-10. Just the winners. 5-7% difference below and blows out exponentially to $92 Vs $52 on tote

stugots 18th November 2013 10:14 AM

so pointy end back tote & lay bf, should be simple right;)

beton 18th November 2013 10:19 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by stugots
so pointy end back tote & lay bf, should be simple right;)
if only.
I will dig up the results of best tote vs top fluc. But I think off memory that it will confirm the same.

SpeedyBen 18th November 2013 11:36 AM

Thanks everybody for the input. The reason I picked on Vic tote was simply because it was easy to research using just one tote. Obviously, best tote will be better than a single tote so the method would have legs based on my research. I have been running it for the last 3 days and BF has outperformed Vic tote by one unit after (my) commission. Doesn't sound like much but that equates to about 120 units profit per annum.
The reason I wanted BF to succeed is that I can set the bot and let it run and I could increase my current discount level with a decent bet size.


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