Would it be a fair assumption......
 

..... to say tht if a system was posted that claimed good results over a prolonged period (say >15% pot over 5+ years) that if posted and suffered the posting curse, that after 4-6 weeks of negative results - most (if not all) followers would file it in the round file (bin)?

My assumption is yes..........

Which to me would demonstrate, most punters are far too short sighted and undisciplined to stick with a "particular" approach (system, handicap or other approcah) for long enough to see results and that most punters are betting and gambling outside of their means/comfort level.... quick bucks sort with no appreciation of what a POT of 2-10% (let alone greater) can mean over 6+ months.

IMHO

Stix,
Your assumption is spot on I think.
Just look at the threads with some really good stuff that get abandoned after two losing weeks.
Some systems in the archives are still kicking butt, just like Partypoopers Plum Movers and others.
The nature of the beast is that many are seeking the holy grail, the one that doubles the bank every week or even makes a profit every week.
In reality, I don't think that sort of return exists.

However, the nature of prices on Betfair for the PPM horses, means a profit can be made, if you ask for the right prices - just not every week.

I'd agree with Chrome on this one. There is no such thing as a good system that won't strike runs of outs. Yet that's what a lot of punters are looking for.
Another problem for system players is sticking to a system without a lot of action and often the best systems haven't much action. It might only dish out a few selections a week, be making a profit, but is being overwhelmed by the punter losing money elsewhere!

As Chome mentioned getting good prices seem to be the difference between system profit and loss.

I often wonder why many punters here get a bit precious about their system rules. No system is going to be over-run with other punter's betting money. First run of outs and they bail out. It's been said before, you can write a genuine long term winning system on the footpath outside Ranwick and it won't make a scrap of difference to prices.

I don't know if I can agree because often you don't know whether it is a good or bad system. After a downturn you could easily be chasing "bad money" and dig yourself deeper into a hole.

I knew someone who for one year (may even have been two) had a trifecta system which won him very good money, but the next year he just about lost it all.

You could have a "good" system but it still loses. The TAB deducts on average 16 cents in the dollar, which effectively means that to show the minimum profit your $0.84 must return $1.01.

As Chrome and Crash says, we must get good prices which is near impossible with the TAB.

There is an agency (can't mention it here) that gives the best Win Divvy of the three TABs for all meetings which is brilliant for Win punters.

There are a stack of outlets offering generally better than TAB prices. I got 20/1 on horse that paid 12/1 and 10/1 [Stab and Unitab] on a Sydney winner.

Would it be a fair assumption...
 

I am always interested in discussing systems/plans - whatever we call them - I posted introductory details of a system I use on another thread but no-one even bothered to respond. The plan I follow has had good success over fifteen months and the longest run of outs was eight and seven last year.
Unfortunately there isnt enough bets and that was why I posted - in an
attempt to improve the system by discussing it with others. 80% POT over
twelve months is pretty good - if you bet say 3% of your bank the profit
would be higher. I suppose no-one is interested in a system unless it wins
bucketloads of cash on a regular basis. That type of system doesnt eexist.

I guess I will just plod alone with my plan and take my lkimited number of bets
and add other bets on a daily basis to increase the action.
Cafe Bar to-day and Tribal Warrior yesterday makes it a profitable weekend.

Cheers:cool:

Sorry mate, but I don't believe there is ANY system that produces 80% POT long term [over 12mths]. Care to print the rules to prove me wrong? No I don't think so, for whatever reason you come up with.

Would it be a fair assumption if...
 

Mate I dont mind giving the rules, but are you able to assist in making this a better system????

Operates on QLD VIC and SA non metrop. meetings sunday to friday

1000m to 1200m only
L/s winner and won 2 out of three starts this preparation
Tier 1 filter 2/1 to 10/1 only
Max weight after allowances 58K
Field size 14 max
Winning s/r 1 in 6 or better
Delete if won three straight including spells
Must have 5 race starts

If more than one qualifier in race back high TAB number - if deleted under Tier 1 filter then go to next qualifier down.

Tier 2 filter
Bet as late as possible to avoid late market alterations.

Now its your turn mate.....can you or anyone else improve on it

adios amigos:cool:

There is definitely those here with the data base that will look into the reality of this system, but don't worry, if it is a success system it will have it's runs of outs and it won't be followed for long. 80% POT? I very much doubt it. Though I will be pleased to be proved wrong. There is no personal debase meant in any of my comments.

Would it be a fair assumption...
 

Thanks for responding Crash - the POT of 80% is genuine for 2007.
I will bet my left **************** on that. As for other years - who knows -
I havnt got the database to confirm or otherwise for other years.
The whole purpose of this post was to improve the "theory"
Lets hope we can do it.

Cheers:cool: