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Overbet Form Factor
After running some analysis on my ratings for Saturday Metro races over the past 14 months since January 2013 I have found something interesting. Overall my top rated horse has the following results with no additional filters based on NSWTAB dividends:
Races - 2323 Wins - 651 S/R - 28% Return - 2371 P/L - 48 POT - 2.1% Now after running through some filters I found that 1 filter had almost identical bets and wins but a very different return. The filter is "Won at the Track", here is what I found: Not Won At The Track Races - 1162 Wins - 321 S/R - 28% Return - 1252 P/L - 90 POT - 8% Won At The Track Races - 1161 Wins - 330 S/R - 28% Return - 1118 P/L - -42 LOT - 4% With almost identical bets and wins the only conclusion I can draw is that this factor has no actual bearing on whether the horse will or won't win but it has a very big bearing on the price of the horse on the TAB......very interesting. |
Quote:
Yes Mattio there are certainly some profitable niches to be found for those prepared to put in the time looking and having a great searchable database. I found a good one this morning for Back betting. For a particular State and Favourite rank: Track condition suitable based on past performance. 77 Bets 23 Wins 30% SR 5.69% POT Track condition unsuitable based on past performance 13 Bets 4 Wins 30% SR 96.92% POT :) You can see here a contrarian view. The bookmakers, analysts and tipsters have studied past performance, seen a favourite running on say a 'Slow' track for the first time, Opened the price higher and the punters have let it drift. Same strike rate, big difference in dividend. Great fun finding these! |
Mattio
Are you able to break your selns down by started ( or not ) at the track? |
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WON AT TRACK (a) the horse isn't a maiden (b) the horse has raced at the track before (c) >= 8 starters Today ................ WAT ............................ NWAT SR.............10.28% ......................... 7.87% Div..............$8.10 ........................... $10.37 R.F. ............1.183 .......................... 0.899 Looking at the RF's the WAT has an advantage. ....... moving right along :- WON AT DISTANCE (a) the horse isn't a maiden (b) the horse has raced at the distance before (c) >= 8 starters .................WAD .......................... NWAD SR.............9.7% ......................... 8.25% Div..............$8.08 ........................... $9.84 R.F. ............1.079 .......................... 0.917 ....... and even further ................. WON IN WET (a) the horse isn't a maiden (b) the horse has raced in Slow and Heavy before (c) >= 8 starters .................. WIW ......................... NWIW SR.............10.02% ......................... 7.86% Div..............$7.90 ........................... $10.70 R.F. ............1.240 .......................... 0.910 The sample size is 1,436,167 horses in several races. It is my opinion that the relationship between Av.Div and Relative Frequency tells the story. |
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