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Why do more favourites get up in the WET
Why do more favourites get up in the wet? A casual observation yes, but it seems to ring true nevertheless. The unpredictable appears to be somewhat more predictable!
Anyone got stats on this? Cheers LG |
Without knowing stats i would say because fewer horses can handle wet conditions it is easier to find those that can, in dry conditions horses have a more even chance of winning.
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Shaun, I've heard that theory, but I also heard that some of the top punters won't bet on rain-affected tracks because of the unpredictability.
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I didn't know they did.
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Not the case at all. Quite the opposite. Last 1000 days results show:
Fast - 30.9% (small sample 643 races) Good - 32.6% (32,000 races) Soft - 31.6% (9,000 races) Heavy - 30.9% (3,600 races) |
It could be that rain affected tracks see smaller fields which would just naturally see a higher % of favourites
interesting to see the stats on fields of say 12-14 on good tracks versus 12 to 14 starters in wet tracks |
Bit OT from favs.
I have a different slant on things re. wet tracks, when I still dabbled in gallops I found that my ratings worked better or more true on wet tracks that is slow to heavy. I think it had to do with what someone alluded to, the ability of the horse to handle the conditions . Avoided "dead" tracks if I could. Have no idea what the new track-condition classifications mean. |
Just returned from checking on the tenant farmers, my lord?
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Faves & Going
ALL
Good* ..... 32.47% ... (146,355) Soft* ....... 31,05% ... ( 61,354) Heavy* .... 29.69% ... ( 17,944) 12 - 14 starters ONLY Good* ...... 29.19% .. 45,386 Soft* ........ 27.40% .. 20,364 Heavy* ..... 24.57% .. 4,521 |
Quote:
NAILED IT speedy Cheers LG |
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