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- - What if.. ? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=29308)

Lord Greystoke

8th November 2014 09:54 PM

What if.. ?

What if the world was really upside down - inside out - back the front.

E.G The last 3 runs

What if most of us are reading it backwards?

Cheers LG

darkydog2002

9th November 2014 11:14 AM

Yeah.
Most punters rely on the last run without ever considering what Class of race it was .
i.e up in class , drop in class, same class.

Is that what you were referring to?

Rinconpaul

9th November 2014 11:32 AM

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke

What if the world was really upside down - inside out - back the front.

E.G The last 3 runs

What if most of us are reading it backwards?

Cheers LG

I think what LG is referring to is something like Held Hostage's form?
1 2 5 due for a win again? and did at $7.80

Lord Greystoke

9th November 2014 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

I think what LG is referring to is something like Held Hostage's form?
1 2 5 due for a win again? and did at $7.80

Jeepers. You know me better than I do RP! Any thoughts on this one gentlemen??

Cheers LG

darkydog2002

9th November 2014 11:49 AM

Rinconpaul

Might be but how would one know without considering ALL the form factors that produce winners.
i.e Class /weight etc etc

Lord Greystoke

9th November 2014 11:56 AM

Was thinking more on these angles Darky...

1. The horse is in the race because the trainer thinks it has some chance of winning. Regardless of current form

2. It has been successful before based on its earlier form

3. We get better value given its best form is not its most recent

LG

Rinconpaul

9th November 2014 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkydog2002

Rinconpaul

Might be but how would one know without considering ALL the form factors that produce winners.
i.e Class /weight etc etc

Well considering that assessing horses based on recent form only produces 1 in 3 winners, then LG's contrarian approach is as good as any, in my book ;)
Looking at Flemington yesterday the winners L3s were:
1
125
699
x11
532
115
x11
N31
x13

Just an observation, but I'd be dropping that one LG in favour of: Had a win in last three starts? 7 out of 9 :)

Lord Greystoke

9th November 2014 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

Well considering that assessing horses based on recent form only produces 1 in 3 winners, then LG's contrarian approach is as good as any, in my book ;)
Looking at Flemington yesterday the winners L3s were:
1 (1) 16.10
125 (4) 7.80
699 (3) 10.60
x11 (11) 3.10
532 (5) 5.50
115 (8) 9.70
x11 (5) 9.50
N31 (5) 7.00
x13 (4) 4.40

Just an observation, but I'd be dropping that one LG in favour of: Had a win in last three starts? 7 out of 9 :)

Food for thought RP. Have listed the no. of selections in each race with a win in last 3 starts and the div on unitab as a guide.

Cheers LG

darkydog2002

9th November 2014 12:52 PM

Hi Rincon ,
Perhaps you would run that through your R2W data base.
I,m interested in the outcome

Cheers and thanks

darkydog2002

9th November 2014 01:05 PM

LG,
Is your thinking along the lines of excluding LS winners but including 3rd and 2nd runs in current campaign.

I love this sort of intellectual challenge.

Thanks for posting.

ps I will look along the lines of price ranges i.e $2 - $11 but today ALL price ranges.

Good luck with it.

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