It makes no difference...
 

"It makes no difference who you put on a donkey......it's still a donkey", a recent quote from a Racing identity.

Fact or Fiction?

I ran a test over two years results for SP $50+ starters. I used Trainers and Jockeys rated as excellent and poor.
The results:

Excellent Trainer or Jockey.......0.525% Win Strike Rate

Poor Trainer or Jockey.....0.48% Win Strike Rate

Only a miniscule 0.045% advantage to the better class of Trainer/Jockey.

Consensus opinion: The best Trainer & Jockey cannot 'LIFT' a 'Poor' horse to a better performance. Now I just know, that some will disagree with that premise, so what about at the other end of the spectrum?

For horses with a SP <= $3:

Excellent Trainer or Jockey.......39.475% Win Strike Rate

Poor Trainer or Jockey.......36.815% Win Strike Rate

So a turnaround at the Favourite end. An excellent Trainer/Jockey makes for a 2.66% better Strike Rate which will add up to a real dollar improvement.

i would say the quote itself - or at least for it to come from a trainer - is probably fictional.
Just about every owner has an aspirational view of their horse and thinks if its not great today - one day it will be. the whole game is built on that gamble.

A trainer has to rely on that feeling to get them to pay $100+ per day to train it.
if they start saying its a donkey - or refer generally to donkeys - well -there goes your 100.


- punters will say it.
- racing commentators will say it.
but trainers - most unlikely.


back to topic though - a good jockey will inspire confidence to the owners and give them something to talk about and in most cases will ride the horse to its best advantage.

in fact if you watch as many races as i do you will see that some rides are for the owners only - to give them hope and keep paying the bills.
the horse will jump moderateley - settle in the last 1/4 of the field and then make a mid race move only to fade in the last 300 - all for the owners.
it could have lobbed along mid field and did nothing and no one would be excited at all.

from a punting aspect - generally a good jockey on a poorly performed horse will improve the prices of the others.

i think that's as far as it could go - they cant carry them.

JMO

Comes back to ratings and impact values at the end of the day. What is better a good jockey or a rider that knows the horse? Hopefully it is a good jockey that knows the horse.

Wouldn't the horse with the better trainer or jockey then have a lower price though?

Hi The Ocho

Logically you would think so however the market often gets their assessment of jockeys and trainers wrong. Most punters rely on stats that are widely available or their own observations. That is what creates the edge for others that have the ability and/or tools to form a better assessment using data that isn't widely available.

The issue of many punters is that they rely on Jockey's and to some degree on Trainer in their ratings. While a good jockey will undoubtedly (and likely but not always) give the horse its best chance, give it an unencumbered run, timed perfectly; there is no way that it can 'improve' its performance above that which the horse is able to deliver when at its best.

I have never seen Nash get off a horse and 'lift' it over the line! The best jockeys get the best out of a horse but they can't get more then the horse is able to give.

The analysis of long-shots provided by RP shows exactly that, and confirms that Jockeys do make a difference at the opposite end of the market. Of course you need a good software, (like Axis with our unique algorithm), to be able to do this well. Using the normal wins/places stats that are freely available are ...... well, freely available and offer less as a result.

Not Bad - every comment is a selling opportunity

There becomes a point where good advice melds into hype. A point where one is eager to read a post and has already deemed the post as more rar rar rar. I think that most forum users are aware of the programs available and when ready, will make a decision whether to or not trial them. I agree that to be constantly reminded is annoying. It is a forum and ads can go in the side column.

...and I don't like ads on TV either...