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dutching
can someone remind me of the maths involved backing 2 horses, 1 is the main pick and the other is just a stake saver for both, so not Dutching perse' ?
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Well, not sure if there's another way, but this is pretty much it I think when you have a main pick and a saver.
How much you bet on the saver = how much you're willing to bet overall divided by the saver horse's price. Then what ever is left over out of the total amount is all put on the main pick. So, for example.... 2 horses, main pick @ $3, saver @ $5, willing to spend $50, You would have $10 on the saver to get $50 and that leaves $40 to bet on your main pick to get back $120. Personally, I would actually want to get a bit more back on the "saver". Seems a bit annoying to win and yet just get your money back. ;) |
.....alternatively, using the above example, if the $5 horse was your main pick and the $3 horse was your saver, then you would have $17 on the saver to get back $51 and that would leave you with $33 to put on the main pick to get back $165.
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Thanks sportz, yeah maybe there isn't a formula, as I have a fixed amount to bet on the no1 pick (varies with each bet) eg. say I have an amount to bet of $21 @ fixed odds of say 6-1, then my saver is to recover that $21 + the stake on the saver (should the saver win that is) if nether wins then the next bet is to a fixed amount + the losses on previous race etc. Now don't everyone start screaming about the dangers/stupidity of chasing losses, I know all that this is a plan full of safety measures which can only lose a small initial amount, but builds up from winnings only (hoping) for that golden run!
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partypooper, if you can give a more precise example then I could do something up in excel i'm sure of it.
i.e. give an example of say a 3 race sequence where the first 2 races both horses lost and i'll do up a spreadsheet that will calculate what your after. Is the following essentially what your after? also what determines how much is placed on your #1 pick? Race 1: $10 to be placed on Horse 1 @ $6.50 Horse 2 needs to recover own stake and $10 @ odds of $4.10 $3.23 placed on Horse 2 If both above lose, Race 2: $12 to be placed on Horse 1 @ $5.80 Horse 2 needs to recover own stake, $12 from Horse 1 and $13.23 from previous race @ odds of $4.30 $7.65 placed on Horse 2 If both above lose, Race 3: $11 to be placed on Horse 1 @ $5.20 Horse 2 needs to recover own stake, $11 from Horse 1, $13.23 from Race 1, $19.65 from Race 2 @ odds of $5.60 $9.54 placed on Horse 2 Assume that one of the horses wins Race 3, your either break even after 3 races or in profit, Assuming you take into account commission if on BF as well. Is that example essentially what your after? EDIT: All odds are just an example, essentially the odds don't matter because the equation takes them into account, all that really matters is your staking on Horse 1 and the Odds of each horse in each race. |
Thanks for hat Puntz, I'll have to study that , the old grey matter not as quick as it used to be you know!
evajb001 Thats great just about exactly what I was after, gets slightly more complicated in that I have a fixed aim to win each race i.e. Aim to win say $20 per race, so race 1 main pick is@ $5 , saver pick is@ say, $3, both lose , race 2 ATW is now $40 + losses on race 1 (main pick say $6) and the saver on pick 2 @say, $4 etc etc. What I need is the formula (if there is one) to work out the stakes. I've probably made that sound much more complicated, I'm famous for that. |
partypooper, I understand what your after just not 100% sure its possible or not as easy to calculate as I may be capable of. The issue lies in that both the stakes would then be dependant on each other somewhat. For example I can make it so that on Horse 1 your profit is $20 and thats fine, it would just mean that you'd have to take your stake on Horse 2 away from that which would reduce the profit below your $20 mark. The problem with then increasing the stake of horse 1 to cover that loss on horse 2, is that you then have to increase the stake on horse 2 to break even, and then your going around in circles. The following is the best I think you can achieve:
Race 1: Horse 1: Stake $3.64 @ $6.50 to make $20 profit Horse 2: Stake $1.17 @ $4.10 to break even If Horse 1 wins total profit is $18.83, If Horse 2 wins you break even, If neither Horse wins go to Race 2 Race 2: Horse 1: Stake $9.34 @ $5.80 to make $40 profit Horse 2: Stake $4.29 @ $4.30 to break even If Horse 1 wins total profit is $35.71 across all bets to date, If Horse 2 wins you break even, If neither Horse wins go to Race 3 Race 3: Horse 1: Stake $18.67 @ $5.20 to make $60 profit Horse 2: Stake $8.07 @ $5.60 to break even If Horse 1 wins total profit is $51.93 across all bets to date, If Horse 2 wins you break even Thats about as good as i'm aware to be able to get it? Hope that helps? If thats what your after let me know and I'll do up a spreadsheet |
evajb001 Yes I agree, that sounds as close as we can get so I'll settle for that. The plot thickens now though, what I'm thinking is either to always make the higher pre post price the no1 pick, or the other way round or split by some other means.
We now get into deeper water i.e. do we make the pre-post price the minimum accepted or no bet (basically using the PP as a rated price) or PP+a given % say 20% or no bet........ |
partypooper, the bet or no bet part is totally up to you as it depends on what system/approach your taking with your selections and whether they meet your criteria that provides an ongoing profit.
How many races in a row do you think you'll need? I'd assume that by the time you reach the 5th race your stakes will be getting pretty high. Also how do you progressively increase your desired profit? I just assumed that you increased it by $20 each race however you may double it each race, i.e. $20, $40, $80, $160 etc etc although doing it this way will just increase your staking even further. I'll see if I can do something up for you and post it here, then you can have a play with it. |
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