Mister 10%
 

This isn't a new one, in fact it's an old one from years ago by Mark.
I've just embellished it a little.

Rules, LAY all:
Non Maidens
All horses with <= 10% Win strike rate
Selection must have had prev 3 starts this campaign.

Yesterday there were 54 selections for 2 accidents.
POS (original stake as liability / profit * 100) = 69%

Interesting to see how this one performed over the last 3 months say? If anyone could crunch the numbers and let us know. It could probably do with a couple more filters (race distance for e.g.)

It picks up some good priced horses to Lay. Accidents are rare so a recovery staking plan could help.
Anyone want to run with it??
RP

RP any chance you can show the POT result as well? Not exactly sure how this POS calculation works, maybe my brain is a bit fried for a Friday.

EDIT: I think I understand it now, so anything above 100% means you've made over 1x your liability for the day, anything from 0-100% means you've partially made enough to cover 1x liability and anything under 0% means you've made a loss for the day, correct?

Better than earlier thought!
 

I'm glad you raised the query Eva because I just checked and realised the "=SUM(Range)" on the spreadsheet was wrong, I had left it on an old setting. So the POS was 299%
54 bets @ $100 = $5400
Profit for the day based on $100 liability = $299
POT is $299 divided by $5400 = 5.5%

Thanks for that........RP

Your welcome, looks like a healthy little system although obviously needs some more time to fully grasp its potential.

Appreciate your constant innovation RP its definitely helping to turn the cogs in my head and think of ways I can approach things.

Cheers

Add On
 

You can add on to this if you want to include maidens, Mark's rule was to Lay all maidens that hadn't broken through after 10 starts or more.
I would still apply the, "must have 3 prev starts in this campaign" filter, it just cuts out so many surprises!

RP

Well, I've just thought of the first filter to apply? Not to be Layed if start Favourite. See Ipswich R3 "Green Cashmere" just broke her maiden after 10 straight!
RP

Results today:
Canberra 13 selections, no accidents, 115% POS
Grafton 33 selections, no accidents, 127% POS
Ipswich 6 selections, no accidents 0.18% POS
Swan Hill 4 selections, one accident -76% POS

So, for a $100 liability:
Turnover 56 bets @ $100 = $5,600
Nett profit $184
POT 3.3%

Not too bad!...........RP

Well done RP!
 

Looking good!!

I found this to be around a 8.24% strike with an avg dividend of around $9.20

I use this in conjunciton with horses running with the same weight or less as Last start or horses outside the top 5 API rank.

Drops the strike rate down to around 6%; same avg dividend

Just remember mist of Marks work was done on Sat metro races.