RaceCensus
 

A new thread, please keep all posts relevant.

Another good day for the RaceCensus systems!

FITSPEED:

ALICE SPRINGS 

R1 RAPID CANNY WON  3.30 PL  1.60

HALIDON 

R7 EMBELISE 2ND       PL  1.50



Win Strike Rate: 50.0%

Place Strike Rate: 100.0%

Average Win Dividend  : $3.30

Average Place Dividend  : $1.55



                 WIN      PLACE

Races Bet:       2         2

Races Won:       1         2

S.R.:       50.0%    100.0%

Outlay:       2.00      2.00

Return:       3.30      3.10

Profit :        1.30      1.10

P.O.T. :      65.0%     55.0%

This brings the total for September:

                 WIN      PLACE

Races Bet:      19        19

Races Won:       7        15

S.R.:      35.00%     75.00%

Outlay:      20.00     20.00

Return   :      25.70     28.40

Profit :       5.70      8.40

P.O.T. :      28.50%     42.00%

Average Win Dividend: 3.67

Average Place Dividend: 1.89

Another massive day for the RaceCensus Systems:

NEWCASTLE
R 6 #12 SUADELA WON $4.10 PL $2.00
GOLD COAST
R 6 # 1 A TAD APART WON $5.60 PL $1.90
R 3 # 1 ELIAZAR 3RD PL $1.30
EAGLE FARM
R 1 # 1 BOREHOLE WON $4.50 PL $1.70
R 1 # 1 BOREHOLE WON $4.50 PL $1.70 (double qualifier)
R 1 # 1 BOREHOLE WON $4.50 PL $1.70 (triple qualifier)
BELMONT PARK
R 8 # 7 THE ALLEGED


Average Win Dividend: $4.64
Average Place Dividend: $1.72
Win S/R: 71.40%
Place S/R: 85.70%

                WIN      PLACE

Outlay:       $7.00      $7.00

Return:       $23.20     $10.30

Profit:      $16.20      $3.30

P.O.T.:      231.40%     47.10%

*Note only Tattsbet dividends were used, returns would have greatly increased using best tote, Betfair SP etc.

If you would so kind as to report to Bletchley Park today at 1500 hrs, Mr Prince - there is an interesting chap there I would like you to meet.


Cheers LG

Will do LG ;)

The RaceCensus systems finished September with a profit.
Detailed below are the summary statistics and an important highlight of the importance of obtaining the best price, or at least better than a single tote price.

September:

                      WIN      PLACE

Races Bet:            98        98

Races Won:            31        62

Strike Rate:          31.00%     62.00%

Outlay:             $100.00    $100.00

Return:            $107.54     $99.78

Profit:               $7.54     $-0.22

P.O.T.:                7.50%     -0.20%

Average Dividend:     $3.47      $1.61

Using Best Tote for these selections returned $112.84
Using Betfair SP (less commission) returned $113.29*
*Assuming full 5% commission.

Using Betfair SP returned a profit for September of 13.29 units and a POT of 13.29%.
The strike rate was similar to favourites, although many were not first favourite.
The maximum win dividend for Betfair was $6.71 (Net), meaning no double figure winners made up the profit!
The average Betfair win dividend was only $3.65 (Net).

And we kicked off October on a winning note:

02/10/2013 CANTERBURY

R 3 # 6  WIND BENDER          WON  $2.10 PL  $1.40

02/10/2013 BELMONT 

R 5 # 8  PERFECT KISS         WON  $2.30 PL  $1.40*

02/10/2013 BELMONT

R 5 # 8  PERFECT KISS         WON  $2.30 PL  $1.40**

02/10/2013 BELMONT

R 1 # 1  OUR ROAD TRADER      WON  $1.70 PL  $1.30 

R 5 # 8  PERFECT KISS         WON  $2.30 PL  $1.40***

01/10/2013 TOWNSVILLE

R 6 # 2  EUREKA DUBAI  unplaced    



Perfect Kiss was a triple selection highlighted in three of our systems.                     



October statistics:

                 WIN      PLACE

Selections:       6         6

Winners:          5         5

S.R.:        83.30%     83.30%

Outlay:       $6.00      $6.00

Return   :     $10.70      $6.90

Profit :       $4.70      $0.90

P.O.T. :      78.30%     15.00%



The October results are single tote returns only.



A video overview of RaceCensus is available by clicking the last link in my signature.

Hi CP

Great work.

One point worth noting and updating in your results/software is that from May 1 2012, Betfair's market base rate on all thoroughbred, harness and greyhound races in Australia and New Zealand increased from 5% to 6.5%. Overall, this would of course have a significant affect on the results for Betfair based dividends.

Anybody serious about their punting would not be on anywhere near the 6.5% comm, Paul.
I'm pretty sure I remember reading a quote from CP where he said that if you are on full commission you are not trying hard enough.

Thanks Paul, in that case one would certainly do better using Best Tote products.

Hi Speedy
I have to disagree. I know a number of serious punters that do not bet all that much of their turnover through Betfair. Many of these punters predominantly bet win or place only into fixed odds betting markets and prefer to use Betfair as a lying tool only.

On my calculations, using a currency rate of 1 AUD being = to 57.92 pence sterling, and assuming a 5% profit edge, the turnover required to reduce your Betfair commission rate from the current maximum of 6.5% to 5% means that you would have to be betting $69,080 each and every week without any change to your turnover. This implies a discount rate of 22% sufficient to bring you back to paying the 5% in question. To double your discount rate to 44% would require a weekly turnover of $211,000 (assuming the same 5% edge).

My point in relation to what you have raised is simply that most people would not be turning over anywhere near the required amounts to reduce their commission from 6.5% to 5% let alone more than that figure. This implies by your statement that anyone turning over less than these weekly amounts is not serious about their punting. I submit that is not correct.

Not sure a bout those figures Paul, my commission rate is currently 4.80% and there's no way I'm turning over anywhere near that amount and I don't even use Betfair every week?