Ratings and The Stradbroke.
 

Surely there were some ratings that selected Linton, the winner of the Stradbroke. After all, this race was full of horses with plenty of exposed form!!, but it seems that these are the types of races where ratings fall down the most. How come??

About the only thing that comes close is jockey/trainer algorithm in neurals Barny! 2nd rated behind Sizzling. It was a masterful ride.
Just don't bet these sought of races I say!
The two's. Too much talent, too many horses!
RP

Think the average pizemoney put it second.

One of the really / most important elements is not taken into consideration and that is the tempo of the race / luck in running / slipstreaming, which apparently can save a horse much exertion if it lobs in behind a horse and is able to pull out at the optimum moment. Another one is fitness. How can ratings ascertain fitness, esp with those horses trained privately. Too many holes for mine ..... AND ..... the known factors which ratings use would surely be overemphasised if only for the lack of known factors from other horses.

Hardly. The top weight went down by 3/4 length, having beaten 16 other horses home and I for one thought it had the best chance of nailing it, based on all the ratings-based data I could get my hands on pre-race.

LG

Hi Barny,

One could also ask, why didn't the bookies open it as favourite?

The facts were, whether using ratings or not, Linton had recently raced in Adelaide in Listed and Group3 company beating the likes of Road Warrior and Lucky Penny, which didn't exactly 'rate' it that highly. I suspect the bookmakers and ratings experts took all of these factors into the equation and put up an initial price of $41. It was obviously liked by a few prudent punters as it started at $31.

Question:
When you say 'these are the types of races where ratings fall down' could you be more specific?
1/ What races are you referring to? Group handicap races with large fields run in QLD?
2/ Which ratings are you referring to?

It's my experience that the ratings I use work best in better class races.

Reading ratings is like reading form, it is simply a figure assigned to a particular run. I prefer rating services that rate every single run of a horses career, so that you can follow the ebbs and flows.

In terms of the Stradbroke, I actually left the race alone as I couldn't make hide nor hair of it in the end. Mostly due to the wet weather leading up to the race, which left me struggling to ascertain who was in the best form, ratings or not.

Sometimes it pays to admit a race has you beaten and enjoy the spectacle. Money stays in your pocket.

To conclude though, if you assume there is a ratings team that had Linton on top, one could also assume they own a large Island in the tropics?....

I had Linton on Weights and Measures coming about 6th, and I think the glorious 'saloon passage' he enjoyed along the rails made up many lengths on the opposition. You'll need a ratings program that will be able to predict "from barrier 21 Linton will go straight to the back, have a leisurely run till the 500m, then not pass a horse and win pulling away" Great when it happens....

Although i don,t do much ratings these days i ran that race over mine and found about the same thing, yes 2 wins in a row may look good but there were others in the race that had better form, as i said it was second on api so you may have had it on that bit of info, only one race and we cant win em all.

On another note i rated a runner today 3rd in a maiden it paid 50+ no way would i have backed it as i dont bet maidens but just goes to show how each race is different.

People some times think ratings are a magical way to find winners, i think they are no different to any other form study, only difference for me is every bit of form is determined the same way with no emotion, all the emotion has been built in to the ratings because every one values bits of form differently

Linton's opening price was $26 and it's SP was $26.
My method of deleting horses (which has been posted) left me with 6 runners. They ran 1st-2nd-3rd-9th-11th-14th. The winner was my 2nd best result in the race. Happy days.

Wizard Timeform Best Form (12 mths) Recent Form Distance Class Consensus

Buffering Streama Buffering Buffering Buffering Famous Seamus Buffering

Streama Buffering Linton Linton Fontelina Belltone Streama

Your Song Your Song Spirit Of Boom Epaulette Epaulette Fontelina Linton

Poll:- Buffering(14), Streama( 5), Linton( 4), Famous Seamus( 3), Fontelina( 3), Epaulette( 2), Your Song( 2), Belltone( 2), Spirit Of Boom( 1)


I use the consensus panel (poll down the bottom) when using these ratings as they,
Incorporate all ratings plus a distance factor.

Was in the top-3 here no problems for these ratings.

IF YOU WANT ALL THE RACES FOR EAGLE FARM ON THAT DAY,
LEAVE ME YOUR EMAIL AND I WILL SEND YOU THE ORIGINAL

CHEERS.