NRLStats - Anyone extracted the data
 

Anyone

I am looking at going through the NRLStats for next year and combining it will the odds from oddschecker. Im also looking at from the point of fantasy teams too :)

Before I go reinventing the wheel has anyone already extracted the data and could share it (or their code) ? otherwise I'll code it up myself using webharvest but its a lot of work to do if I don't need to.

very up and down game imo

Which possibly means it is ripe for analysis. I have a few ideas but I need to download the stats and spend a few months doing analysis.

Well I ended up writing a basic extract to get some of the team data. I would be interested in some help on my process.

I m thinking I should do some regression analysis of each variable against the points scored and points conceeded and points difference.

My aim is to find the variables that matter. I also have some not so obvious variables which are derived from the stats which look promising.

After I determine which factors in each game have a good coefficient I am then going to get the player data.

I am then going to do some trend analysis on player performance to see if I can come up with any patterns. Hopefully from this I can predict a players contribution to a game for each variable that matters.

If I get to this point and its "reasonable" at prediction I should then be able to analyse the team list for each game and predict the values which matter to winning a game based on the players who will play in the game. From this I can determine a price and whether or not I am getting value.

Does this sound like a good plan for analysis ? I have given myself at least 6 months before the season starts again to get all of the above done. Am I missing something crucial ?

Maybe start by handicapping the handicappers/punters, which will verify this earlier statement "Which possibly means it is ripe for analysis"
There are other wagering opportunities that show akin to the Pareto principle, where less then 20% of the people win more then 80% of the available wagered money and where a large portion of that 80% of the money is wagered thru "quick picks" and returns less then 10% of the available wagered money, now that is ripe fruit for the picking.

SO..
Play opposite to the tote / bank / machine / superior players and we end with the mush on the ground.

Play with this group and against the rest and we starting picking the ripe stuff ?

We either have to handicap the punters or model the ghost in the machine, it seems.

LG