Do Carnivals affect your Systems?
 

Does anyone review their systems after Spring, Autumn or Winter Carnivals and see how they have performed against the rest of the year? Obviously it will depend on the systems we work with but with so many good/great horses returning (47 first up from a spell at Flemington tomorrow and another 39 that have had only 1 start from a spell) does the strike rate take a hit?

Over the past 3 weeks (Saturday - A,B,M&S) the winners for a system I run have fallen from 12 to 8 to 7 (over 32 races). Should I expect another drop tomorrow?

Any thoughts?

TTA,

After turning $30 into $1,100 over the space of last month, I found it hard to get into any sort of groove last weekend with my betting.

I don't run any systems at the moment but my first conclusion drawn last weekend was the same as yours, that first starters had an impact on my process. I'm worried the same may occur this weekend as well so I think ill be betting more cautiously.

That probably doesn't help much but just my experience over the last month and a half.

Short answer is no - I find public holidays & the weeks either side of xmas are the times things can go off the rails.

Well there are two outcomes depending on your approach.
Carnival time is often full of surprise winners that don't come in with systems that perform well rest of the time.
However, the calibre of good horses is better, so the standout horses to follow seem to come in regularly because of their superior class.

Of course there are exceptions to all rules to keep the bookies happy :(

A rating service that I used in the past stopped recommending their ratings during the spring carnival. Although they still posted their ratings, they said history could not support them during that period. They continued to post purely as a service to their clients at no charge.