One system that forms a foundation
 

This foundation of rules I remember was the basis for a good system

Without any database anymore, I was wondering if someone could rule the system as far back as possible

Love to here suggestions on improvements once the results have been posted

1. Days Last start 1 - 7
2. Last Start Position 4 - 24
3. Has Won at the course

Regards

Selections 26,080

Winners 2,616 Place 7,632
S/R 10.03% 29.26%
Profit/Loss -$1135.50 -$2012.35
P.O.T -4.35% -7.72%

For the win, -4.35% isn't too bad considering just 3 rules. Looks like a fairly good base which could be refined a bit.

Have a look at the thread "System 6 " for some ideas.

have a look at 'crash' no brainer. excellent thing

System 6 - flop
Crash had some good ideas.

Why is it with more technology and form analysis methods going the place and available online is the favourite still winning the same % of races.

Only the price you get changes, because a lot of money goes on those obvious favourites, and even more goes on second or third favourites early that end up favourites at the jump and their price is crushed by the sheep ;)

A Dud in its present form.Imagine the frustration of beavering away over that number of bets and be behind 4+% at the end of it.

I would,nt be looking for any insight with the No Brainer as that was also a dud.

Only requires another simple rule for profit while the large sample provides punters that confidence level of continued trends

Why its given me enough profit to pay for my next holiday to Sweden!

I,d be looking at Baghwans work myself.

did a lot of testing of his systems to find they made profits for around a year then most went into losses for future periods

Follows the nature of Racing.
Run of Wins followed by a run of losses.

A while back I tried out his backing the 3rd fav in the first 6 races in time order which went okay for about 3 months then fell in a hole.

I was also trying out a system myself that went good for 4 months and then down the tubes.

That would be fine, it's the in between ups and downs where there are random patterns that get you.

as a general comment IMHO its very hard to get that last 10% of POT to make you a long term winner.

any number of systems can can you down to about -5%.
but that's no good really as you still lose money.

The main reason I multi- bet in the main Aussie.

No it wasn't darky.

Hi Tipsy,
Then I guess you modified it a fair bit to make it work.
And isn,t that what systems are really about in the main (A first step)

By the way did Crash fall off the perch?

Cheers

The reasons that most systems go ok for awhile then fall in a hole is because they don't take in to account the strength of the race for different times of the year, even ratings can suffer this problem.

As far as backing multis there is no difference in backing 1 runner a race or backing 3 the strike rate + the average price still needs to be higher than the outlay, if you think of each bet as a separate bet it works best, why would you continue to back a selection that wins constantly at 15% but average price is $5, just makes no sense.

Very true.
What works effectively for me is adding 1 to the number of selections and accepting nothing less than that price.
i.e 5 selections in a race I want a minimum of $6.
Over the long term one can never go broke unlike those of the 1 selection per race persuasion.
For me to bet 1 horse per race it would need to be asessed price around $1.30.
In other words generally the price one gets is a massive overlay.
These are few and far between.
1.e Kilcoy R 6 asessed $1.28 Price got was $21
It lost but there are so many that win and adds to the yearly bottom line.

What ever way one chooses it must make sense and suit ones own comfortability and risk.

Cheers

So darkydog2002, does that mean that you don't bet at all if all 5 selections are not over $6 or you bet on only the ones that are over $6? So you may bet on 2 or 3 selections out of the 5 if they are over $6. Is that right?

Hi Ocho.

Yes.Only those at $6 or better (No cutoff point either)

Cheers

darkydog, there were a couple of pages at the end of the thread that mysteriously disappeared, I'm sure there are some who have the content, including me. Don't know about crash, thought he got banned. He was a great poster.

Hi Tipsy,
I dont know whether he got banned or not.
I agree he was one of the better posters.
And gee havent we lost a few over the years.
Maybe death , old age or lost interest could be the cause..

I remember MK saying to me once he got so good at his own ratings and making money that he didnt have the time to spend on forums.

Cheers

Liking this Darky.So you have 5 selections including the favourite which you dump, and back the other 4 which are all over $6?

Yeah, sure!

Hi Kiwi,
Yes thats it.
Cheers