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i call this the 2000 plus 40
this little system is working for me.
I thought I might share it. self devised... 1. look at races 2000m or more ( just to save time ). 2. (number of wins plus number of second placings), divided into number of starts to be 40% or more. ( after time it gets easy to calculate. - add 1's and 2's and multiply by 2.5 ) 3. last start odds SP of 10.00 or less. 4. number of wins to be equal or more than number of seconds. 5. todays odds under 11.0 ( or 10/1). 6. average prizemoney of horse to 2ooo or more ( most are ). results march 2014 bets 25, wins 11, return 46.50 april so far 2014 bets 10, wins 3 , return 16.00 |
Thanks Mick.
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mickthemiller, looks interesting, rule no. 5 though, is it fixed odds? if so when and where? I've found that with a rule like this you have to have a definite procedure and never alter from it. For example, you could say todays pre-post odds using Tab Form (or whatever) but always from the same source, otherwise you can get distorted data. eg if you're using SP. it could be showing $11.10c just b4 the off ( so no bet) and $10.90c after it has won.
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I JUST REMEMBERED ONE MORE THING...
only bet on races with open age racing. races with only 3yo or only 2 yo, lead to too many qualifiers. in rgds to rule5 I use best of three totes. if one of them reaches odds 11.00 ( 10/1 ) just before the jump, then I pass on the horse. |
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At $11 level I'd go up to $12 to $13 even, if the system requires such precision, given the volatility of the market it's not worth bothering about. (if it had been proven that it never won over $11 then it's an different matter!!) With prices at a lower level like $2 to $4 I might consider a 50 cents range. Just my opinion! If anyone disagrees no problem. |
for further information....
I kept a record of all contenders. those horses since 1st March to now ( last start 10.00 SP or more ) 47 horses, 2 winners , return $6. this imo, justifies this rule. all horses who began at best tote odds of 11.00 or more.... 61 horses, no winners.... this could justify this rule, imo. |
a further analysis gives a better POT.
one which I call the "specials" apply this rule.. last start unplaced. less action, however.. since march 1 to now...19 starts - 8 winners - $41.80 win return. good luck happy easter. follow voleuse de coeurs, Sertorius, and boban if starting under 11.00 tote |
REGARDING POST #7
IGNORE RULE 4. FOR THIS RESULT |
Hi Mickthemiller,
If i have this correct then the qualifiers at Caulfield for the Easter Cup on Saturday are Banca Mo - 23 starts 11 wins 3 seconds (60.8%) $4.60 last start expected $8 Saint Or Sinner - 13 starts 6 wins 1 second (53.8%) $1.80 last start expected $8. Good luck with this system!! |
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correct. good work.
how easy was it to follow ? |
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Mick Do you have the figures for a place for the rejects? |
after getting all horses which qualify under rule 1 and 2 and 6.
ignore rule 4. from these qualifiers I eliminated those which don't comply to rule 3 i.e ls odds of 10.00SP or more. ( 47 runs, 2 wins $ 6.00 rtn..... 12 places $ 50.80 return ) of these those that began at 11.00 or more ( 0/29 wins, 7/29 placegetters for $ 40.10 worth noting is that 18 of these began under 11.00 odds ( 2 wins $6 rtn, 5 places for $ 10.70 now those further that began over 11.00 odds , but passed rule 3 were 32 horses ( 0 wins, 3 places $ 12.70 rtn ) thus 47 2 6.00 12 50.8 + 32 0 0.00 3 12.7 = 79 2 6.00 15 63.5 less 18 2 6.00 5 10.7 equals 61 horses 0 wins 10 places 52.80 rtn |
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thanks for your input Dennis.
this fact 47 runs, 2 wins $ 6 return refers to horses which do not meet rule 3 ( last start odds of 10.00 or more ) I may have made it difficult to understand. ls odds of 10.00SP or more , should be last start odds of 10.00Sp or more. Thanks mickthemiller |
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