i call this the 2000 plus 40
 

this little system is working for me.
I thought I might share it.
self devised...

1. look at races 2000m or more ( just to save time ).
2. (number of wins plus number of second placings), divided into number of starts to be 40% or more. ( after time it gets easy to calculate. - add 1's and 2's and multiply by 2.5 )
3. last start odds SP of 10.00 or less.
4. number of wins to be equal or more than number of seconds.
5. todays odds under 11.0 ( or 10/1).
6. average prizemoney of horse to 2ooo or more ( most are ).

results march 2014 bets 25, wins 11, return 46.50
april so far 2014 bets 10, wins 3 , return 16.00

Thanks Mick.

mickthemiller, looks interesting, rule no. 5 though, is it fixed odds? if so when and where? I've found that with a rule like this you have to have a definite procedure and never alter from it. For example, you could say todays pre-post odds using Tab Form (or whatever) but always from the same source, otherwise you can get distorted data. eg if you're using SP. it could be showing $11.10c just b4 the off ( so no bet) and $10.90c after it has won.

I JUST REMEMBERED ONE MORE THING...

only bet on races with open age racing.
races with only 3yo or only 2 yo, lead to too many qualifiers.



in rgds to rule5
I use best of three totes.
if one of them reaches odds 11.00 ( 10/1 ) just before the jump, then I pass on the horse.

Party even with my own system I'm very weary when a price limit is needed.
At $11 level I'd go up to $12 to $13 even, if the system requires such precision, given the volatility of the market it's not worth bothering about.
(if it had been proven that it never won over $11 then it's an different matter!!)
With prices at a lower level like $2 to $4 I might consider a 50 cents range.

Just my opinion! If anyone disagrees no problem.

for further information....

I kept a record of all contenders.

those horses since 1st March to now
( last start 10.00 SP or more )
47 horses, 2 winners , return $6.
this imo, justifies this rule.

all horses who began at best tote odds of 11.00 or more....
61 horses, no winners....
this could justify this rule, imo.

a further analysis gives a better POT.

one which I call the "specials"

apply this rule.. last start unplaced.

less action, however..
since march 1 to now...19 starts - 8 winners - $41.80 win return.

good luck
happy easter.

follow voleuse de coeurs, Sertorius, and boban if starting under 11.00 tote

REGARDING POST #7
IGNORE RULE 4. FOR THIS RESULT

Hi Mickthemiller,

If i have this correct then the qualifiers at Caulfield for the Easter Cup on Saturday are

Banca Mo - 23 starts 11 wins 3 seconds (60.8%) $4.60 last start expected $8
Saint Or Sinner - 13 starts 6 wins 1 second (53.8%) $1.80 last start expected $8.

Good luck with this system!!

I thought that's what I said. In fact seeing that they don't win a lot over $10, that could be the upper cut off limit.

correct. good work.
how easy was it to follow ?

Mick
Do you have the figures for a place for the rejects?

after getting all horses which qualify under rule 1 and 2 and 6.
ignore rule 4.
from these qualifiers I eliminated those which don't comply to rule 3
i.e ls odds of 10.00SP or more.
( 47 runs, 2 wins $ 6.00 rtn..... 12 places $ 50.80 return )
of these those that began at 11.00 or more ( 0/29 wins, 7/29 placegetters for $ 40.10

worth noting is that 18 of these began under 11.00 odds ( 2 wins $6 rtn, 5 places for $ 10.70


now those further that began over 11.00 odds , but passed rule 3 were
32 horses ( 0 wins, 3 places $ 12.70 rtn )

thus 47 2 6.00 12 50.8
+ 32 0 0.00 3 12.7

= 79 2 6.00 15 63.5
less 18 2 6.00 5 10.7

equals 61 horses 0 wins 10 places 52.80 rtn

Mick, I may have missed something or perhaps I'm just stupid, but if there were 2 winners at "odds of 10.00SP or more" how can the return be less that $20.00?

thanks for your input Dennis.

this fact 47 runs, 2 wins $ 6 return

refers to horses which do not meet rule 3
( last start odds of 10.00 or more )

I may have made it difficult to understand.
ls odds of 10.00SP or more , should be last start odds of 10.00Sp or more.

Thanks
mickthemiller