Age or starts shall not tire them?
 

Hi team,

A quick query on age related matters.

Do you believe limiting your investments to commodities aged <=6yo is a wise way to go?

Or perhaps if they're older than 6, they must have had no more than 40 starts max?

I'd be interested in any feedback!

A longshot system I run shows it's best results in the age bracket 5yo-7yo, with 8yo-10yo acceptable, while 4yo & under is the big loser.

Pointy end probably suits those 6yo & under.

I totally agree stugots

Hi mate

Older horse ie 7 years upwards, can be a real headaches for system analysts. I use a win to runs percentage rule, eg 80 starts must have won 20 and marginally less percentage required it it may only have had 30 or 40 starts. A good example is in Melbourne on Saturday. 'Another Prelate' is 99% in my system but the age and percentage of wins puts him right on the borderline. 'Spacecraft' is also close but is eliminated on weight. What I do on such occasions is to halve my bet on both horses so as not to totally miss out by not backing a winner, or conversely be satisfied with a smaller win.

Cheers
Dave

Interesting comments thus far, thank you kind folk for weighing in on the debate!

I have a few different methods I'm testing at the moment and it has been profitable leaving out the >=8yo's. I'm looking for further testing regarding the 7yo bracket.

Any further ideas/comments duly encouraged!

TheSchmile, are you aware of the where the words come from in the title of the thread you have used?

Hi Shifty,

I am aware. Apologies if you found it in bad taste, it wasn't my intention. I've asked the moderators to amend if possible.

We all should know where it comes from, but what is there to take offence at??

Totally agree. The diggers all liked a punt... and it was used in a complimentary way.

The potential for disrespect, perhaps.. as unintended as it was. Hence the follow up response from TS.

LG

Hi all,

Thanks for your comments.

Hopefully put to bed now and we can get on with this business of grafting a profit.

Have a fine evening and let's slay the bookies tomorrow!!

My grandfather on the paternal side and one of his mates ran the Crown and Anchor game on one of the ships on the way back from the Middle East during WW2.
I know for a fact he would not have been offended, quite the contrary I suspect.

I do believe we are getting a touch paranoid of late.

TS, couple of my thoughts that may help, all imho of course -

- I dont pay too much attention to the number of starts an older horse has had provided the win strike rate (as opposed to place strike rate) does not stink the place up - lot's of older consistent gallopers have had plenty of starts because they need the racing to be competitive & thrive on it (as an aside, over raced younger horses are more likely to be a risk)

- I prefer my oldsters in a provincial environment rather than in the big smoke, but there are always exceptions.

- A reasonable average prizemoney ranking in today race is a required element, & I usually avoid them early in a prep without a solid history to suggest they can perform well early.

- Mares, you do see the odd old mare doing laps...think Richard Dreyfuss in Let It Ride asking everyone what they like & crossing them out;)

- Moving away from systems - a smart trainer & jockey combo can work wonders - R.Thompson & Youthful Jack one of the more obvious recent examples (another aside, Thompson must surely be knighted once he hangs up his whip with 4000 winners now on the horizon)

My last thought is that older horses still win their fair share of races, so to ignore them is to ignore a potential profit source.


edit - agree with jose comments above

The independent variable "CAREERSTARTS" (number of career starts) used to be one of the most important independent variables in Mr. William Benter's multiple logistic regression model (T-Ratio = -9.98, coefficient estimate = -.0143).