Calling Chrome
 

Hi mate

My email has flipped out and I've lost all my addresses hence why I'm asking this on here.

What's your take on Betfair SP these days? You wrote that something's going on but did not elaborate. The SP's last Saturday were possibly the worst (from a layers point of view) that I have seen since I started following them. Pretty much negative across the board for almost every race. This on a day choc full of Group races which in the past have been the best.

ps If anyone knows how to recover lost addresses all help appreciated.

Depending how long ago this happened i would try windows system restore, right click the my computer icon and click properties you will find it in there, you can go back a few days or more this should solve the issue.

In regards to the SP i have seen similar findings, with the sheet i use to place my bets for the rated runners it shows back prices and SP, i have been placing bets about 10 seconds before start time and most times the SP is better than my price and this is not restricted to just the lower priced runners.

Actually I emailed you last week, this explains why you probably didn't receive it.
You are correct, something is going on.
BFSP turnover has not increased substantially over recent months according to my records.
Neither has it decreased substantially.
There is only one conclusion that can be made from the market percentages, but I'm reluctant to expand.

Suffice to say that I always wondered why layers weren't given the option to lay to payout x amount rather than liability.
Liability, unless you can calculate exactly, means that you are always over exposed on certain runners.
This in turn gives "a third party" opportunity to match the overexposure and then take any old price about outsiders up to and including 100% market.

Without getting too technical, the end result is that horses over a certain price have all been pushed higher, while the overexposed horses remain in the same ballpark.

The average market percentage on Australian races was in excess of 103% six months ago. This has vanished like magic without any turnover variation.
In fact they are now paying below 100% in most cases.

Two other members on this forum are wise to the caper as are a select few on the BF forum.

Shaun, thank you, all addresses are back.

Chrome, no I didn't receive anything from you. I've only noticed a change over the last few weeks, to my detriment as I bet bigger on SP over the carnivals, but stayed right out last Saturday. Last year (from memory) I went in to the tune of around $10000 on the Slipper and cleaned up when it came up around 107%, this year nothing, and it was one of the few races to go a touch over 100. I am reluctant to back SP as that's is not what I do.

Strangely there were quite a few good %'s on Sunday on light turnover.

This is exactly what I have noticed.
I have stopped laying double figure horses since CP gave me a few pointers, and the bottom line has improved, albeit slightly, as a result.
If what is happening is what I think is happening, and i have no reason to think otherwise, I reckon it is an effing disgrace.
Greed! How much do these thieving b######s want?

They got the exchange model correct and people flocked and fluttered to it.
It was a much needed and revolutionary portal, that finally gave some chance of getting set if you're a winner and basically better odds.

Unfortunately they botched the profit and commission business model entirely.
It's actually not a matter of greed in my opinion now, it's a matter of making up for some very poor mistakes and spending money like it's water.

I would hate to guess, but the future looks very bleak indeed.

They still retain a majority market share, but have lost a significant amount of that majority.

Anyone like to guess the amount of money spent on lawyers, applications, licences, advertising, site exchange games, needless beta site, forum improvements etc etc etc.
It's an upside down funnel at this point in time, and they are running out of clients and attracting almost nil new business.

Licence restrictions have seen them out of South Africa, part of America, they will be at least part out of Australia, France, Italy, Spain etc etc.

This is just my opinion, but users are just about fed up, they are sick of increasing fees and charges and losing access to markets left right and centre.

With some foresight and some industry nouse, it could all be repaired, but unfortunately they have already approached it all in the wrong way. They are almost out of options.
The need a complete and transparent fixed business plan of commission structure and industry tax.
It needs to be a guarantee of service to clients and the racing industry for x number of years.
The goal posts have to stop shifting, customers have to have confidence that they are not being taken advantage of behind closed doors with crossmatching and other internal bots.

So far today just about every SP market is under 100%

Yes CP you are probably right re the greed thing and yes they must have spent countless millions on lawyers etc.

Why in the name of fortune the TAB's, or indeed the Race clubs themselves, cannot set up an exchange I do not know.

because they can see where betfair is going and would rather run a risk free operation.

I hope you are wrong Shaun, but I fear you may be right.

Re the below 100% markets. The prosecution rests!!!

So it would seem the general consensus is that Betfair is eventually doomed to fail, at least as far as their coverage of horse racing is concerned?

Hopefully not completely doomed as CP says they can turn it around with a bit of tweeking. Unfortunately there is no viable alternative. Tote betting is for mugs and if you win on the bookies you get banned. Today I had my second a/c banned by Sportsbet.

Also got my fingers x'd they get their act together longterm, as the thought of having to go back to tote only betting makes me kind of ill....

Ouch! Thanks for that Mark.

Some of the mugs do very well thankyou at considerably better odds than Betfew can offer.

Maybe your brush strokes are a little broad. My feeling is that the number of angles left in this game is underestimated.

Sorry Twobets, no offence intended. Not knowing the possible return just doesn't sit right with me.

Hi Mark,

if you don't mind me asking, what exactly was your 'crime' at SB and is there a way to avoid / delay for future reference?

Cheers LG

I was unfortunate enough to win. And if there is a way around it please let me know.

Not sure what you mean Mark, but if you want to avoid winning just follow the tipsters.

Yes I know what you mean and I've graduated from that class some time ago and now I'm betting almost exclusively with the TAB.

Some with BF but not a lot, as I am not a layer and as a backer can't get matched for the amount I want, in the price range I'm operating in, or at least not easily.

Don't get me wrong, they are doomed as it stands currently.

As I understand it, and I could be wrong, they moved their operation to Malta because of turnover tax in GB, however, they cannot do that here. I understand that the whole reason for the Hobart operation was to be granted a licence. If they move offshore to negate the turnover tax, they cannot offer anything Australian under the Gaming Act.

That's my understanding of it, and I could be wrong.

Betfair have a number of options and those options are either not viable for Betfair, or not viable for clients.

I'm hoping one of the guru lawyers who gets the big bucks can pull a rabbit out of a hat and hey presto :D

I'm not even half bottle on the intricacies of the system but how come they can operate on the US races from here and on the UK races from Malta?

Also if they set up business in say Vanuatu, what is stopping them to bet on OZ races?
I was in Europe recently and had no problem betting on the TAB or downloading my form files.

Just wondering if it's only a gentleman's agreement in the end or are the laws enforceable?

Yes, I'm not au fait with it all either, but they operate on the USA races from Malta also, we just have access. However, TVG have pulled a legal loophole on them recently which bans them from operating on any USA meeting covered by the TVG network.

The laws are enforceable, as I understand it the gaming act in the UK differs greatly to the Australian Gaming Act. This is why the other exchanges cannot offer Australian races at all. They must be resident in Australia and licenced. I think Vanuatu and Norfolk Island got around this because they had offices in Australia as well as those areas. They paid licence fees but not tax. Betfair is different, their market share means it is worth the Clubs going after them.

Maybe they can do something similar, but I doubt it because judgements have already been made, and that's the crux of the problem now.

After a little research, it's the Interactive Gambling Act that is the problem.

Here are some snipped passages which may provide a little more insight.

To operate on Australian race meetings, bookmakers and betting exchanges need to be licensed with the various state racing authorities. As well, betting on sport and sporting events needs licensing agreements with the sports.

Licensing agreements with racing bodies and sporting codes ensure the betting agencies pay a fee for the right to use the racefields and fixtures but also agree to co-operate fully with authorities if they become aware of any suspicious betting patterns or unauthorised sports people or officials placing bets.

a $60,000 fine every day an unlicensed agency bets on racefields

As posted in another thread, Racing Victoria has announced they will move to turnover based fee model 'based on 1.5% of turnover, increasing to 2% during the months of October and November'.

Expect QLD et al will follow shortly.

I wonder how many years the licences are good for.

Like any business dealings , there is usually a memorandum of understanding.

If new taxes want to be imposed , that would usually be at the end of the original licence agreement rather than during.

Anything that changes could make the original agreement void.

Like we have seen with the Aust Soccer Federation where that Sports Group with a 20 year licence, have claimed the Federation has not delivered on their part of the deal and now wish to hand back their licence rather than lose any more money.

That 1.50% is a massive whack .
If betting stayed the same , that would produce billions of dollars.

I feel the authorities have zero understanding how the betting industry functions & the small profit margins that they work with.
They must see it as a small cost on top, like the Mining Tax, which it isn't, its a massive cost on top.

How on earth is this sustainable for any Betfair user?
It simply isn't.
If one backs or lays more than one horse in a race, it becomes a massive hit.

I just did a realtime example @ 5% commission over a certain timespan.

Turnover $44,296.62
Profit $710.81
POT 1.60%
1.50% turnover tax -$664.45
Nett Profit $46.36
So POT drops to 0.10%
And if it goes to 2%, -$175.12, or LOT 0.39%

It cannot be successful.

So will they apply the levy to backers only, layers only, split between matched bets, or perish the thought.....both!!!!

Over the years isn't this exactly what Peter v Landys,
Mission in life has been.

To kill off all competition from corporates betfair bookmakers,
In general so that everybody is forced to the Draconian method,
Of betting on an individual tote.

This started years ago with this bloke.
This time "UNFORTUNATELY" a huge nail,
In the coffin has been delivered against competition.

I have never seen any one person fight so hard,
And for so long to achieve this backward step.

Cheers.

Doesnt make for good reading...

Surely to be fair(ish) the 1.5% would be split between the matched bets? Although 0.75% still has a massive effect on your scenario Chrome Prince.

Guess we will find out soon enough

I'd put money on the winner paying the full 1.5%.

Actually I would too Angry Pixie.
But then there's a world of trouble.
I lay 5 horses.
Lose marginally on the race, but 4 out of 5 lays are successful.
I pay additional 1.5% on 4 out of 5 of the successful lays.
I'm now losing a massive chunk rather than a small amount.

Strangely Betfair have been very quiet at this point, which may or may not be a good thing.

First cab off the rank, pull naming rights and sponsorship off Betfair Park, and pull all race sponsorship would be my retaliation. I'm not sure what it's worth to Racing Victoria, but I'm sure it would be a fair amount.

Did Sportingbet Park fall through?
I thought from Jan 1st 2012 it was going to be Sportingbet Park, but apparently not????

A bit of scare mongering going on here. Those of you that do high volume / low margin trading/laying or whatever, for sure the goal posts have been dismantled. But I'm not sure Betfair will be sorry to see the back of them. But for old-fashioned pure speculators that back their opinion & lay / backand earn a higher margin, say 20% after comm, this will decrease their profit, but a good profit will still be made.

I'd much prefer a 1.5% fee plus 5% comm on each winning wager and do away with this PC nonsense altogether.

think it is

http://www.melbourneracingclub.net....portingbet-park

Raven of course it is going to impact various types differently.
Worst will be traders and high volume low margin backers or layers.
But, 1.5% does not sound much under your scenario, but if every winning bet has an additional 1.5% commission regardless of your end profit, it's still a massive hit.

For example the difference in profit between 4% commission and 5% commission is enormous even with larger margins when calculated not on your profit, but each winning bet.

This isn't going to impact the Saturday recreational punter too much who picks out a few good things, but the more you use the exchange the worse it will be.

I guess my reaction could be seen as a bit over the top to position takers, but people like myself and Mark (and a few others) who derive almost full income from the exchange, it's a severe blow.

This is where you have it a bit wrong this will be just added to the lot, PC is here to stay and may even grow larger.

Yes, doubt the PC will be going anywhere in a hurry as the 1.5% is a totally separate issue.

PC nonsense?
I'm sure it doesn't stand for Personal Computer.
At the moment I have Politically Correct as my top selection , but I wouldn't back it.
I have made up one called Profit Commision.
Could someone put me out of my misery please?

"Politically Correct"?
You read too many blogs moeee.

It stands for Premium charge, ie. you win more than others you pay extra!
Nothing in this game is free it seems my friend, Or should I say FAIR?

Lol
Thanks Lomaca.

Had another thought while I was in the shower, best thinking done there :P

If BF have to supply turnover figures and thus the calculations of what 1.50% should return to the various raceclubs on a regular basis.

a) will they not include their crossmatching and skimming bots in those figures?
b) will they only declare customer transactions?
c) might they cease and desist this practice altogether?

The thought occurred to me that turnover is turnover, no matter where it originates from, thereby rendering those practices unprofitable.

We live in interesting times, it's like watching the evolution of betting in fast reverse.

I seem to do my best thinking on the bog, which might explain why my betting bankroll keeps going down the toobes. :(