Why support Favs. in Melbourne Group 1 races?
 

I was thinking about the Group 1 races in Melbourne this racing year and how it has been very difficult to find the winners. Below are the winners and their Supertab prices.

Manikato Stakes - Typhoon Zed - $7.50
Underwood Stakes - Weekend Hussler - $1.50
Sir Rupert Calrke Stakes - Orange County - $6.90
Turnbull Stakes - Littorio - $9.50
Yalumba Stakes - Duoro Valley - $35.60
Toorak Handicap - Alamosa - $9.60
Caulfield Guineas - Whobegotyou - $3.10
Thousand Guineas - Gallica - $4.30
Caulfield Cup - All The Good - $47.70
Cox Plate - Maldivian - $10.10
Coolmore Stud Stakes - Northern Meteor - $1.50
McKinnon Stakes - Theseo - $6.40
Victorian Derby - Rebel Raider - $76.80
Myer F&M Classic - Forensics - $3.00
Melbourne Cup - Viewed - $46.50
VRC Oaks - Samantha Miss - $1.90
Patinack Classic - Swick - $12.70
Emirates Stakes - All Silent - $6.20
Lightning Stakes - Scenic Blast - $20.20
Orr Stakes - Maldivian - $8.70
Australia Stakes - Apache Cat - 6.40
Oakleigh Plate - Swiss A.ce - $37.60
Blue Diamond Stakes - Reward For Effort - $21.60
Futurity Stakes - Niconero - $7.90
Newmarket Handicap - Scenic Blast - $12.50
Cadbury Guineas - Heart Of Dreams - $3.80
Australian Cup - Niconero - $14.40

Of the 26 Group 1 races there were 7 that paid >$20 whereas only 2 were odds-on.

There was also some long priced Group 2 winners as well (Guillotine $37.50, Rocha $58.80, Bird Of Fire $18.30 and Pre Eminence $19.20).

Not sure what all this means other than if you can pick the winner there is money to be made!

Any thoughts?

Bump...food for thought?

The money to be made probably lies in betting around the favorites on the overs on offer in these races. Of course you have to find the winning bets often enough to come out in front!

Some of the races you could have just backed the whole field and made a profit. Only problem is that you don't know what races that's going to happen on. Interesting that it happened with both of the big cups! Would be good to look at field size. At a guess, I'd say that a lot of the races with really big divs had fields of 14+ runners???

Looks like this racing year is turning out very similar to last year!

Manikato Stakes (11) - Danleigh - $17.10
Underwood Stakes (16) - Heart Of Dreams - $11.00
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (16) - Turffontein - $11.70
Turnbull Stakes (15) - Efficient - $21.20

I have included the number of runners in each race in the brackets after the race name.

I wonder what holds for the three Group 1 races this Saturday - Yulumba Stakes, Caulfield Guineas and Toorak Handicap?

For the 2008-2009 racing season I have added the Distance of the race, the Class of the race and the number of starters.

Manikato Stakes 1200m WFA (14) - Typhoon Zed - $7.50
Underwood Stakes 1800m WFA (13) - Weekend Hussler - $1.50
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 1400m Hcp (18) - Orange County - $6.90
Turnbull Stakes 2000m SW&P (13) - Littorio - $9.50
Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (7) - Duoro Valley - $35.60
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (18) - Alamosa - $9.60
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (16) - Whobegotyou - $3.10
Thousand Guineas 1600m 3yof SW (16) - Gallica - $4.30
Caulfield Cup 2400m Hcp (17) - All The Good - $47.70
Cox Plate 2040m WFA (12) - Maldivian - $10.10
Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m 3yo SW (7) - Northern Meteor - $1.50
McKinnon Stakes 2000m WFA (11) - Theseo - $6.40
Victorian Derby 2500m 3yo SW (15) - Rebel Raider - $76.80
Myer F&M Classic 1600m F&M (13) - Forensics - $3.00
Melbourne Cup 3200m Hcp (22) - Viewed - $46.50
VRC Oaks 2500m 3yof SW (16) - Samantha Miss - $1.90
Patinack Classic 1200m WFA (11) - Swick - $12.70
Emirates Stakes 1600m Hcp (16) - All Silent - $6.20
Lightning Stakes 1000m WFA (11) - Scenic Blast - $20.20
Orr Stakes 1400m WFA (12) - Maldivian - $8.70
Australia Stakes 1200m WFA (7) - Apache Cat - 6.40
Oakleigh Plate 1100m Hcp (18) - Swiss A.ce - $37.60
Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m 2yo SW (13) - Reward For Effort - $21.60
Futurity Stakes 1600m WFA (7) - Niconero - $7.90
Newmarket Handicap 1200m Hcp (22) - Scenic Blast - $12.50
Cadbury Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (12) - Heart Of Dreams - $3.80
Australian Cup 2000m WFA (12) - Niconero - $14.40

I don't know if this makes selecting the winner clearer or muddier. It, however, does make sense to look outside the favourite as there is little reward when they do win.

It's happened again!!!

You right Sportz - It's happened again!

The three Group 1 races in Melbourne were:-

Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (8) - Whobegotyou - $1.90
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (17) - Allez Wonder - $42.10
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (11) - Starspangledbanner - $12.60

Whobegotyou is the only Group 1 winner this racing year, in Melbourne, that has paid under $10!

The Thousand Guineas on Wednesday is the next Group 1.

Updating the Melbourne Group 1 races with Irish Lights saluting in the Thousand Guineas.

Manikato Stakes (11) - Danleigh - $17.10
Underwood Stakes (16) - Heart Of Dreams - $11.00
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (16) - Turffontein - $11.70
Turnbull Stakes (15) - Efficient - $21.20
Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (8) - Whobegotyou - $1.90
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (17) - Allez Wonder - $42.10
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (11) - Starspangledbanner - $12.60
Thousand Guineas 1600m 3yof SW (14) - Irish Lights - $3.10

Updating the Melbourne Group 1 races with Viewed saluting in the Caulfield Cup

Manikato Stakes (11) - Danleigh - $17.10
Underwood Stakes (16) - Heart Of Dreams - $11.00
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (16) - Turffontein - $11.70
Turnbull Stakes (15) - Efficient - $21.20
Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (8) - Whobegotyou - $1.90
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (17) - Allez Wonder - $42.10
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (11) - Starspangledbanner - $12.60
Thousand Guineas 1600m 3yof SW (14) - Irish Lights - $3.10
Caulfield Cup 2400m (18) - Viewed - $12.40

i think you'll be able to add a favourite next week after the cox

In my opinion what this shows is how competitive the top level racing is in the country at the moment. In all honesty the horses winning arn't exactly bad horses, they have all shown some sort of form in Group 1 races at some time in their career before their wins this prep.

Danleigh - 2nd Galaxy, 1st All Aged Stakes, 5th Doomben 10000, 2nd Stradbroke
Heart Of Dreams - 1st Cadbury Guineas
Turffontein - 3rd Doomben 10000 (08), 3rd sir rupert Clarke, 2nd VRC Classic
Efficient - 1st Derby, 1st Melb Cup
Whobegotyou - No explanation required
Allez Wonder - 3rd oaks (imo this horse just needs a good track to be competitive at the top level)
Starspangledbanner - Only one G1 race before this and failed in that but should have been unbeaten this prep and the only question was would he get the distance)
Irish Lights - No explanation needed
Viewed - to many to talk of, the trainer is a master at setting horses for a big race....


It looks pretty ovious that getting so many good horses together any of them can win on their given days, if every horse could run up to it's best performance every run this game would be so much easier wouldn't it :)

Hi Horse Whisperer,

I agree it does show how competitive our Group 1 racing is.

In the Cox Plate this week all horses have won at Group 1 except Zipping and Rangirangdoo (both placed at Group 1) and So You Think which has yet to start at Group 1 (only 4 career starts). Therefore all horses have something going for them in our premier WFA race.

My thoughts about putting up this thread was to show, because it is so competitive, we should look past the obvious if we want to back some good priced winners. As I initially said when the favourites do salute there is very little "value" to be had.

Maybe the question should be, why bet these big races at all when they are just a Bookies benefit?

Sure, if your lucky on the odd day it can be a good earn, but a quick look at the outcomes from the comp. shows that the bookies are doing nicely thank you and the punters in the comp. are not covering their outlay, In fact most [including me] would be losing heaps if it was real money we were betting. Plenty of zero outcomes too.

I'm very wary of the big races [and any country Cups] and keep my bets interest only mostly. Lining up form is a nightmare and form reversals seem the order of the day.

Have to agree the Cups are lotteries.

Agree Viewed is a superior stayer and that Cummings a great trainer.

But 8 of 10 times Rawiller would not have got that run he got on Saturday from the back of the field.

Another Group 1 and another nice priced winner in So You Think.

Manikato Stakes (11) - Danleigh - $17.10
Underwood Stakes (16) - Heart Of Dreams - $11.00
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (16) - Turffontein - $11.70
Turnbull Stakes (15) - Efficient - $21.20
Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (8) - Whobegotyou - $1.90
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (17) - Allez Wonder - $42.10
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (11) - Starspangledbanner - $12.60
Thousand Guineas 1600m 3yof SW (14) - Irish Lights - $3.10
Caulfield Cup 2400m (18) - Viewed - $12.40
Cox Plate 2040m (13) - So You Think - $9.50

Bring on Flemington!

Nope.

Sir Slick coming out killed any chance of a genuine pace in the Cox. Made it impossible for the favorites. Jog and sprint past bottom weights with 7-8kg less weight? Smart move by Cummings telling Boss to lead on his back-marker So You Think with 49.5kg. Bottom weights 1st. and 2nd!

Updating the first day of the Flemington carnival with only one real outsider (Headway) saluting.

Manikato Stakes (11) - Danleigh - $17.10
Underwood Stakes (16) - Heart Of Dreams - $11.00
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (16) - Turffontein - $11.70
Turnbull Stakes (15) - Efficient - $21.20
Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (8) - Whobegotyou - $1.90
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (17) - Allez Wonder - $42.10
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (11) - Starspangledbanner - $12.60
Thousand Guineas 1600m 3yof SW (14) - Irish Lights - $3.10
Caulfield Cup 2400m (18) - Viewed - $12.40
Cox Plate 2040m (13) - So You Think - $9.50
Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m 3yo SW (14) - Headway - $15.00
McKinnon Stakes 2000m WFA (11) - Scenic Shot - $7.10
Victorian Derby 2500m 3yo SW (10) - Monaco Consul - $4.60
Myer F&M Classic 1600m F&M (12) - Typhoon Tracy - $2.20

Wasn't it one of the fastest ever cox plates?

Yeah, 2nd quickest I think. So You Think was just outstanding. We just didn't think it would be leading.

Tell me about it mate, I was on the winner and didnt know what was going on when Boss took him to the front. I just didn't think it was a jog and sprint. This horse looks special and i really hope after they finish with him this prep he comes back bigger and better next time in.

Melbourne Cup update

Manikato Stakes (11) - Danleigh - $17.10
Underwood Stakes (16) - Heart Of Dreams - $11.00
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (16) - Turffontein - $11.70
Turnbull Stakes (15) - Efficient - $21.20
Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (8) - Whobegotyou - $1.90
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (17) - Allez Wonder - $42.10
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (11) - Starspangledbanner - $12.60
Thousand Guineas 1600m 3yof SW (14) - Irish Lights - $3.10
Caulfield Cup 2400m (18) - Viewed - $12.40
Cox Plate 2040m (13) - So You Think - $9.50
Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m 3yo SW (14) - Headway - $15.00
McKinnon Stakes 2000m WFA (11) - Scenic Shot - $7.10
Victorian Derby 2500m 3yo SW (10) - Monaco Consul - $4.60
Myer F&M Classic 1600m F&M (12) - Typhoon Tracy - $2.20
Melbourne Cup 3200m (23) - Shocking - $9.90

You know what. It's amazing how often your first impressions turn out to be best. I marked off So You Think as a horse to follow for the spring after it's first run back from a spell. And I did exactly the same thing with Shocking.

Hope you have cleaned up on your early prognostications!

I've never really been one for Black Booking horses but I have started doing so in the past couple of weeks. Hopefully, it will benefit me when the horses come back next preparation and beyond.

Apart from sportsbet is there like a program or website u can used instead? This seems like a good idea, i don't actually wanna put them in a book that is black, haha.

There seem to be many offering "Blackbooks" but I have started entering my horses into Excel. I know it wont email or text me when my horses are running but as I am only interested in Saturday racing and other major days e.g. Melbourne Cup etc I reckon I can live with it.

I guess each to their own.

I'd recommend the one on racenet.com.au.

Thank you

I recommend racingandsports.com.au

After today's group 1 races the list is:-

Manikato Stakes (11) - Danleigh - $17.10
Underwood Stakes (16) - Heart Of Dreams - $11.00
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (16) - Turffontein - $11.70
Turnbull Stakes (15) - Efficient - $21.20
Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (8) - Whobegotyou - $1.90
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (17) - Allez Wonder - $42.10
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (11) - Starspangledbanner - $12.60
Thousand Guineas 1600m 3yof SW (14) - Irish Lights - $3.10
Caulfield Cup 2400m (18) - Viewed - $12.40
Cox Plate 2040m (13) - So You Think - $9.50
Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m 3yo SW (14) - Headway - $15.00
McKinnon Stakes 2000m WFA (11) - Scenic Shot - $7.10
Victorian Derby 2500m 3yo SW (10) - Monaco Consul - $4.60
Myer F&M Classic 1600m F&M (12) - Typhoon Tracy - $2.20
Melbourne Cup 3200m (23) - Shocking - $9.90
Victorian Oaks 2500m (12) - Faint Perfume - $1.70
Patrick Farm Classic 1200m (9) - All Silent - $3.70
Emirate Stakes 1600m (15) - All American - $27.60

I think the Emirates Stakes is a serial offender when it comes to big odds winners and favourites getting beaten.

I think you may be correct Sportz, even though All Silent won last year at a favourite quote of $6.50 (open race each year!), there has been some enormous priced winners e.g. Tears I Cry ($101), Valedictum ($26), Sky Cuddle ($51) and today All American ($41) over the past 10 years. There was also Testa Rossa ($15), Desert eagle ($17), Scenic Peak ($15) and Titanic Jack ($11). There has been only 2 favourites salute, the other being Divine Madonna ($6.00 EF).

In fact there has been only 3 favourites and 1 equal favourite salute since 1984!

Next year I suggest we all tread carefully!

Guess the reason is the timing of the race ..alot of these had other races in mind ,,so a horse flying under the radar thats set to peak for the race has an advantage ...but in saying that i doubt All American had this race as his major plan..?? not sure but Mr Hayes had the three runners so he probably thought its one of the easier group 1's going around..
Hes a stallion as well so they'd be rapt..

as the day is on the whole!

I backed the field in every race yesterday (emirates day is just outsider central), and made a tidy profit

....... or NZ group 1 races?

Another longshot result yesterday. I simply can't work out the form in the big ones over there. The races are often won by horses I've never even heard of, while seemingly much better credentialled horses finish nowhere. I haven't actually checked out the records on this, but it's just the feeling I get that NZ group 1s are usually won by outsiders. On New Years Day, I liked A Gold Trail in the Railway, but I decided to ignore the race simply because of all the other upset results I'd seen in NZ! Of course, it duly won, as fav or 2nd fav. But apart from that, I can't recall too many well supported runners winning big races over there!

With the first Group 1 in Melbourne being run here is an update for 2009-2010 racing season:-

Manikato Stakes (11) - Danleigh - $17.10
Underwood Stakes (16) - Heart Of Dreams - $11.00
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (16) - Turffontein - $11.70
Turnbull Stakes (15) - Efficient - $21.20
Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (8) - Whobegotyou - $1.90
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (17) - Allez Wonder - $42.10
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (11) - Starspangledbanner - $12.60
Thousand Guineas 1600m 3yof SW (14) - Irish Lights - $3.10
Caulfield Cup 2400m (18) - Viewed - $12.40
Cox Plate 2040m (13) - So You Think - $9.50
Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m 3yo SW (14) - Headway - $15.00
McKinnon Stakes 2000m WFA (11) - Scenic Shot - $7.10
Victorian Derby 2500m 3yo SW (10) - Monaco Consul - $4.60
Myer F&M Classic 1600m F&M (12) - Typhoon Tracy - $2.20
Melbourne Cup 3200m (23) - Shocking - $9.90
Victorian Oaks 2500m (12) - Faint Perfume - $1.70
Patrick Farm Classic 1200m (9) - All Silent - $3.70
Emirate Stakes 1600m (15) - All American - $30.30
Lightning Stakes 1000m (11) - Nicconi - $5.30

All dividends are Supertab prices.

So much for that. Favs won yesterday!

With another Group 1 in Melbourne being run here is an update for 2009-2010 racing season:-

Manikato Stakes (11) - Danleigh - $17.10
Underwood Stakes (16) - Heart Of Dreams - $11.00
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (16) - Turffontein - $11.70
Turnbull Stakes (15) - Efficient - $21.20
Yalumba Stakes 2000m WFA (8) - Whobegotyou - $1.90
Toorak Handicap 1600m Hcp (17) - Allez Wonder - $42.10
Caulfield Guineas 1600m 3yo SW (11) - Starspangledbanner - $12.60
Thousand Guineas 1600m 3yof SW (14) - Irish Lights - $3.10
Caulfield Cup 2400m (18) - Viewed - $12.40
Cox Plate 2040m (13) - So You Think - $9.50
Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m 3yo SW (14) - Headway - $15.00
McKinnon Stakes 2000m WFA (11) - Scenic Shot - $7.10
Victorian Derby 2500m 3yo SW (10) - Monaco Consul - $4.60
Myer F&M Classic 1600m F&M (12) - Typhoon Tracy - $2.20
Melbourne Cup 3200m (23) - Shocking - $9.90
Victorian Oaks 2500m (12) - Faint Perfume - $1.70
Patrick Farm Classic 1200m (9) - All Silent - $3.70
Emirate Stakes 1600m (15) - All American - $30.30
Lightning Stakes 1000m (11) - Nicconi - $5.30
Orr Stakes 1400m (9) - Typhoon Tracy - $1.30

All dividends are Supertab prices.