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Mark does a Maria
Well here goes.
Starting bank $2000 Same rules as Maria. 0 - 3.50 = 1% 3.55 - 7.40 = 0.6% 7.6 - 11.0 = 0.4% Increase bets as bank increases, but only decrease bets if bank reduces by 35% from its peak. Day 1 Scone R1 7 COVET IN GOLD R2 6 CALGA R3 11 LES'S LASS R4 6 LANSZAR R5 7 KHARGOSH R6 10 CHANCE OF LIGHTNIN R8 5 FULL BENCH Warrnambool R1 6 GELDOF R2 1 MARCH IN STYLE R3 11 SNAKIE R4 3 FOUR LEGS GOOD R5 5 GENERAL REFLECTION R6 4 SUPER PINS R7 3 SHADES OF DANE R8 5 GENEROUS TRISTANA |
Good luck, Mark.
Quite a few of them are well favoured in the Telegraph pre-post market. |
Cheers Michael. I don't look at prices when I do the form.
This really has me thinking. Maria finished with a strike rate of 86% and didn't seem to lay a lot of real shorties. She also had quite a few losing days, yet still finished way out in front. Can any of the stats people run the following? Laying numbers. ie blindly laying 1,2,3,4,5 etc Laying jockeys. Laying barriers. Laying opening/closing fav, 2nd fav, 3rd fav etc Anything that has a strike rate of say, less than 20% may be a goer. Obviously she had a decent selection method, but the real gold may be in the staking. I don't know. ps I should add, today's bets will be $20, $12 and $8. |
I HAVE TO GO OUT, SO WON'T BE LAYING THE LAST AT WARRNAMBOOL OR THE LAST AT SCONE.
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Well, not being around for the last at Scone was a blessing. Well done, Mark. Break out the smilies :)
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What a day !!
Scone R1 7 COVET IN GOLD No Bet * R2 6 CALGA 3.36F ** R3 11 LES'S LASS 4.60 R4 6 LANSZAR No Bet *** R5 7 KHARGOSH No Bet R6 10 CHANCE OF LIGHTNIN No Bet R8 5 FULL BENCH No Bet **** Warrnambool R1 6 GELDOF 6.40 R2 1 MARCH IN STYLE No Bet # R3 11 SNAKIE 7.40 R4 3 FOUR LEGS GOOD 9.16 R5 5 GENERAL REFLECTION 8.0 R6 4 SUPER PINS 5.80 R7 3 SHADES OF DANE No Bet ## R8 5 GENEROUS TRISTANA No Bet ### A clean sheet for the first day. An excellent start, not without its drama's. * Just as I was about to place the bet, my whole system froze. Not happy Jan. No bet so not recorded. ** Average price as I laid it at 3.80 ($12), then more when it came in to 3.40 ($6), then there were late scratchings. Total bet $18. It ran last. *** Totally misread the market and missed laying at 8.80, seconds later it was 14.0. **** My lucky day. I had to go out so did not lay this winner. #Drifted fast, 8.0, 10, 12, so I missed laying this one. ## Traded at more than 10, will explain below. ### I was out so missed this one. Apart from the winner in the last at Scone, not one of the others ran a place. The only change I am going to make is to lower the outside price range to 10.0 instead of 11.0. I felt uncomfortable at the thought of laying one out at more than 10.0. In summary, 15 selections, 7 bets, 0 winners. Nett profit $77.90, or 3.89% of bank. New bank $2077.90. New bets $20.77, $12.46 and $8.31. |
Well done, Mark.
The "accident" that you thankfully missed I believe is unimportant because there may most probably be other races that for one reason or another you will also miss that would be profitable as per Scone race 1 no.7. Are you going to keep records of the results of each price band? I think Maria wasn't too enthused with the results of the selections in the $0 to $3.50 range. I'm curious to know how you can bet amounts that include cents. My betfair account is in pounds sterling and as far as I know our bets can't include pence. |
Mark does a Maria
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My BF account is the same as Burrah's.
Great start Mark. |
Impressive going!
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It seems maria wasn't the only one from that site with an impressive record.
'God Punter' only backed horses, but boy he certainly deserved his nickname! 'THE PERFECT SYSTEM' ---------------------------- ONEDUNME [ Later nicknamed: 'God Punter'] http://new.punterslounge.com/forum/...isplay.php?f=29 2yrs. and 88 pages of almost daily upfront selections and not shorties either, until someone peeved him off enough to disappear without trace at about page 85. I never did find the page with the system explained [was there ever one?]. Something to do with the Aztecs and maths I think. |
Can't help with pounds/pence. I opened my a/c with aussie dollars.
Michael, I wasn't going to keep records of each price band but seeing as how it's only day 1 I will. 0 - 3.50 +17.10 3.55 - 7.40 +45.60 7.60 - 10.00 +15.20 |
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hi mark, know it worked in your favour this time, but i am wondering why you didnt just place your bets to be matched before leaving? ias/tab markets would give you a fairly accurate guide as to the nags prices, which you then place on betfair, maybe a point or 2 shorter. if they get matched, all well & good, if not, no harm done. |
Michael,
I think you will find that if you put in a decimal backers odds it will accept anything! Miy account was automatically in Oz dollars too. |
Hi stugots, I've never been a set and forget person, never have & never will be.
TAB markets are rubbish, and IAS don't go up until about 10 minutes before the start for country races. If something blows, you get nothing. If something firms you get caught. Lose, lose, for mine. |
Day 2
Bank $2077.90 Bets $20.77, $12.46 and $8.31. PORT R1 5 FOXHOLE R2 2 TWO QUID R3 8 PREVELLY R6 4 WILL STRIKE R7 7 HELLO SUGAR R8 2 RUINS WAY TATURA R1 2 FADE TO BLUE R3 3 IVORYS IMAGE R4 7 ORCHARD GLORY R5 1 DANSKER R6 3 BRIDGE BREAKA R7 1 CAPTEUR R8 3 WEST HO TOWNSVILLE R1 3 EL ZORILLO R2 9 CARRY THE REGENT R3 7 SHINKANSEN EXPRESS R4 2 MINDMASTER R6 5 PYRAMID RAIDER R8 4 JACOBS TRICK |
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Crash, Got ya hooked eh? I hate it when I find threads like that because I tend to read every page through curiosity. His staking plan (ancient aztecs) was more of a joke I think, because he's quite the comedian at times. He looks to be doing staking similar, but different to Maria, less on longer prices, more on a certain price band and then less again on the shorter ones. Within those pages are some offhanded comments which are gold and I quote: He missed a winner accidentally, so chased to make up for it and.... A string of losers all because I couldn't control my temper Been there, done that. What happened was, he had a mini downturn (nothing big) and this moron called Frankie keptriding him and goading him with every loser, so ONEDUNME gave him a serve and then left, came back and posted a couple of winning selections and then left for good. It seems there's always one who comes along to spoil the party. :( ONEDUNME finished miles in front! |
For those that climbed aboard early, what a party!
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Is ONEDUNME realted to WHOFLUNGDUN ?
darky |
OK, how long's this been going on??
Day 2 Bank $2077.90 Bets $20.77, $12.46 and $8.31. PORT R1 5 FOXHOLE 8.8 R2 2 TWO QUID 6.2 R3 8 PREVELLY 8.2 R6 4 WILL STRIKE no bet R7 7 HELLO SUGAR no bet R8 2 RUINS WAY 5.9 TATURA R1 2 FADE TO BLUE 5.8 R3 3 IVORYS IMAGE 2.96F R4 7 ORCHARD GLORY 8.2 R5 1 DANSKER 9.1 R6 3 BRIDGE BREAKA 9.2 * R7 1 CAPTEUR no bet R8 3 WEST HO 4.3 TOWNSVILLE R1 3 EL ZORILLO 3.25 fav..............Won R2 9 CARRY THE REGENT 6.4 R3 7 SHINKANSEN EXPRESS no bet R4 2 MINDMASTER 5.15 R6 5 PYRAMID RAIDER no bet R8 4 JACOBS TRICK no bet * Tatura R6, I only got matched for 28c !!!! 19 selections 13 bets 12 winners Nett profit $75.87 Total profit $153.77 New Bank $2153.77 +7.68% New bets $21.53, $12.92 and $8.61. |
Did better than 28c on the 6th at Tatura --- but missed a couple (too high a price when I tried to lay my bet e.g. Danisker); and was in too much of a hurry when trying to lay Mindmaster --- and backed it instead!! Still way in front. Congrats on your efforts.
Of course, we have to bear in mind what Maria says over and over again on her thread --- there will be bad days. Went through nearly half of her thread last night (no wonder I was muddled backing Mindmaster) --- was almost gaga at the end; but it was significant that her bank was only up 40% after 103 days --- 3 months! Yet it went on to be up 3000%, or whatever, in a year! |
Merriguy
I'm hoping to average only 1% per day, which at the end of the year gives a healthy profit. Way ahead of that so far! |
Mark,
On the B/F Forum a few days ago one guy said that he lays every favourite every night (English, I guess), to lose 100 pounds, on the US races. He lays them all at whatever price to lose 100. Doing this he made 4% first year, 8% last year. This year he is down 0.5% --- but he is not worried as there is still a long way to go. Incidentally, that -0.5% is 2000 pounds down!!! His worst night, he claims, was when 26/40 won! "Not nice but that's the game" was his comment. To balance that he claims to be going to N.Y. this Friday --- with his 'missis' --- 'our fourth trip this year'! Makes your aim of 1% not too bad if you can believe what he has said. |
Day 3
Bank $2153.77 Bets $21.53, $12.92 & $8.61 Launceston R1 7 GEORGIA STAR R2 2 MISTY CROWN R3 3 FULL VELOCITY R4 6 TIBOOBURRA TRAVIS R5 1 AFFAIR DE JOUR R8 4 APRILIA R9 1 ONE WAY TRAFFIC R10 6 DEBACLE Eagle Farm R1 5 VAL DE LA DIVA R2 8 FLYING SILVER R3 9 MR MOJITO R4 9 DUSTY TAAN R5 10 SHEWHOMUSTBEOBEYED R6 7 POWER CITY R7 3 NATIONAL FOREST Randwick R1 7 REIBY REFRAIN R2 4 NAVAHO TRAIL R3 3 ROLL OVER ROVER R4 8 NOW NOW R5 3 SWEED R6 7 COLOURFUL MOMENTS Werribee R2 2 PERFECT RULE R3 7 LADY MAMBO ** R5 10 PASS THE BUBBLY R6 3 TILL TIME Gawler R1 2 L'ARTISTE R2 7 PRINCE DANZATORE R3 4 STAND YOUR GROUND R4 2 POSITIVE ACTION R5 5 DON'T TELL KEL R6 3 SYMMETRICAL STAR R7 6 SHAMANIC Queanbeyan R1 2 DANCING DRAMA R2 3 TREPEZANOV R3 5 JUSTA PRETENDER R4 1 BREZINA R5 2 THE BOXER R6 7 PINEY CREEK R7 1 BOSSY MATILDA ** Only lay if in the first 2 in the market. Seems silly to lay my 3rd pick in a 5 horse race if it's 3rd fav or worse. |
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hear what your saying mark, but after all isint the aim to lay your selection within your price range parameters if possible? so if one has a guide, be it rough or not, as to the nags likely price range, im not too sure what the problem with a nag blowing or firming is, your only getting caught if it wins, which is no different from any of the other bets your making. |
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Stugots I'm with Mark. I've had my pants pulled down too many times by laying too early, only to watch the "private information" money come in at the last minute. I lay to prices but I know others have more info than me. My prices are a rough guide and if my selection shortens too much from my assessed price I walk away. Hope to work on automating this with the Betfair API. Pixie |
Win or lose stugots, if a horse is 6 into 5/2, what price would you like to lay it at? The same goes for a horse that's 6 out to 12. Laying at the right price gives you options, and it's a risk reward thing. Plus I just hate betting blind. I never bet on the tote for the same reason.
Speaking of the tote, I didn't lay the selection in the first at Launceston. 12 on Betfair but 3.30 fav on Unitab. The poor saps that backed it wouldn't have a clue. |
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Merriguy Can you put this down to anything? Did her strike rate improve? Was she getting better prices? Pix |
fair enough mark & angryp, & i tend to agree with u both.
i often lay in early at what i percieve to be an unders price but then bet back out to reduce potential losses if i start to get that 'bad feeling' abt my ever shortening nag. not a regular occurance but one of the reasons bf is somewhat of a revelation, to me at least, the ability to get out of unexpected trouble. |
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Very similar to what I'm doing Merriguy, but the key is the price he gets on those favourites, and I have a price cut off, because the higher the price gets, the less likely I can judge it's true price and the more exposure. I think I bet the same same night that 26/40 happened! :( |
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Pix |
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Laying just before the jump is almost equal to taking the average lay price available. It's not the worst you can do, but it's not the best either. If I were to lay them just before the jump, I wouldn't make as much or even suffer a slight loss I think. In the case where you can't estimate the correct price, then taking the last price is o.k. In my case, I have staggered wagers to percentage of bank maximum that ensures I get at least better than the average price. That is why I concentrate on the short end of the market, because I can accurately assess the longterm true price and the fluctuations are not savage to my detriment. The difference between betting blind on the tote and blind on Betfair, is that you must end up with whatever they give you on the tote, whereas with Betfair you can specify what you want and load your lay bets to advantage if there is a crunch in the price. It's no secret how my staking is done, so I'll share it. For overseas races, I take the prepost price and deduct 10% on Even money to odds on. I deduct 20% if there is a scratching which is in the betting market. I then just load my bets at these prices for an even money horse: 1.80 1.78 1.76 1.74 1.72 1.71 etc. Why? Because I know that longterm, anything less than 10% less than prepost on these shorties is longterm profit. The more that's matched at shorter and shorter prices, the bigger the overlay (underlay in reverse for laying). A price crunch does not affect me longterm. |
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I was following her thread, a lay comp, but didn't realise that the gladfly mathematician was the ""famous" "infamous" Maria of another forum. |
That %^$#*@ Debacle. What a debacle --- and all by a nose or some such. What am I doing still laying horses in Launceston at 6.00 at night?
Oh well, Mark, still up for the day, I imagine. Well done. |
Beat me to it merriguy. Nosed out in 3 photo's.
Launceston R1 7 GEORGIA STAR 9.4............I only got $1.83 on R2 2 MISTY CROWN no bet R3 3 FULL VELOCITY 4.8 R4 6 TIBOOBURRA TRAVIS 4.5 R5 1 AFFAIR DE JOUR 8 R8 4 APRILIA 8.6 R9 1 ONE WAY TRAFFIC 5 R10 6 DEBACLE 6.89 won Eagle Farm R1 5 VAL DE LA DIVA no bet R2 8 FLYING SILVER no bet R3 9 MR MOJITO 7.2 won R4 9 DUSTY TAAN no bet R5 10 SHEWHOMUSTBEOBEYED 6.8 R6 7 POWER CITY 4.7 won R7 3 NATIONAL FOREST no bet Randwick R1 7 REIBY REFRAIN no bet R2 4 NAVAHO TRAIL no bet R3 3 ROLL OVER ROVER 5.1 R4 8 NOW NOW no bet R5 3 SWEED no bet R6 7 COLOURFUL MOMENTS 6.6 Werribee R2 2 PERFECT RULE 5.5 R3 7 LADY MAMBO ** 2.44 fav won R5 10 PASS THE BUBBLY 6 R6 3 TILL TIME no bet Gawler R1 2 L'ARTISTE 3.25 fav R2 7 PRINCE DANZATORE 5.6 R3 4 STAND YOUR GROUND 5.8 R4 2 POSITIVE ACTION 2.86 fav won R5 5 DON'T TELL KEL 5.8 R6 3 SYMMETRICAL STAR 6.4 R7 6 SHAMANIC no bet Queanbeyan R1 2 DANCING DRAMA 3.05 won R2 3 TREPEZANOV 5.2 fav R3 5 JUSTA PRETENDER 8.6 R4 1 BREZINA no bet R5 2 THE BOXER OFF R6 7 PINEY CREEK OFF R7 1 BOSSY MATILDA OFF Started off well, being well up after 7 lays lost. Then 4 out of the next 7 won. Clawed most of it back until 2 of the last 3 won, and finished at the days low. Selections 39 Bets 24 Losses 6.............about 3 too many!! Nett loss $112.95. New bank $2040.82, bets unchanged. Still ahead by 2.04% |
Suffering a bit of analysis paralysis today but here goes anyway.
Kembla R5 9 HARAM R7 2 FIORI R8 8 CHOOSE TO DREAM Mornington R1 4 CIAO ROCKY R2 3 INEIGHT R5 2 BROOKTON MIST R7 7 DEVILISH Rocky R3 4 SPEEDEX R5 1 REVOLVA As much as I hate tinker...........I'm changing the price bands as there seems to be too much risk on the upper end of the middle band. The new prices are 0 -3.50 @ 1%, 3.55 - 5.60 @ .6%, 5.7 - 7.2 @.5%, and 7.4 - 10 @ .4%. Todays bets are $21.53, $12.92, $10.76, and $8.61. |
Mark, I think this change to the price bands will prove to be beneficial - hopefully!
Good luck. |
A lot less action today, and a small loss, with 1 losing bet from the 4 lays.
Kembla R5 9 HARAM 7.8* R7 2 FIORI 3.8 fav.........won R8 8 CHOOSE TO DREAM 4.2 Mornington R1 4 CIAO ROCKY no bet R2 3 INEIGHT no bet R5 2 BROOKTON MIST no bet R7 7 DEVILISH no bet Rocky R3 4 SPEEDEX no bet R5 1 REVOLVA 8.2 *I don't usually comment on suspect goings on in racing but this one caught the eye. Opened fav and just blew and blew. Funnily enough it missed the start and raced wide the whole way, before flashing home to grab 3rd. Nett loss = $7.57. New bank $2033.25, no change to bets. |
Day 5
Ipswich R3 4 IMPERIAL GROUCH R4 4 FRISCO AFFAIR R5 10 MAXIMISS R7 2 RED ABERNANT Canterbury R4 5 ANEXTRA R5 6 FULLY ARMED R6 6 SPRINGDINGO R7 1 FLYING ORDERS Sandown R2 6 HIGH CZAR R5 4 DISCORSI R6 6 FLASHNIKOV Coffs R3 3 TIGRE D'OR R5 7 GALLIC MISS R6 4 SONOFA STAR R7 3 BELLBUCCA R8 3 GYMNASIUM Kyneton R2 10 SKIBO CASTLE R3 3 DENSARRAY R4 5 THINKING R5 8 FAYE'S HAT R7 3 LURE THE LION R8 2 ZWAHILLION Bets are $21.53, $12.92, $10.76 & $8.61. |
Skibo Castle.............how many more will win by a nose????????
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