can the punt be beaten by maths?
 

as a long time member of this forum, i just sit back and help out were i can and read all the posts.
i came to thinking and please give your views that i believe a race can be beaten by a maths formula to cover all types of bets and produce a profit!
i know favs will make it hard so you need to know how much to bet.and in what combo.
i suppose it's a type of dutch and target bet together.
i do know of a punter who sits at a race meeting and will work out a race with his calculator( have tried to eavesdrop) and he keeps on collecting. the orange sports car and his living address says he's doing somethng right.
just a thought as it would throw the need to run form out the window and grab those outsiders.
its sounds like the search for the holy grail ?
what do you guys think, will there one day be a program called the un-emotional punter!
cheers to all

Does your mate go by the name Marty McFly?

rooburger, just by way of input, I watched a very interesting profile of a professional punter by the name of John Goff based in York England (many years ago) it was a documentary type programme, which followed his expliots for several weeks.
He was very well known at the tracks and his tactic was to first weigh up the odds on offer, then he had OTHER people place bets on several horses that were being offered at "over the odds" @ fixed odds, he then went and personally placed bets openly on several of these horses, which caused great hoards of people to follow suit, which in turn caused the odds to decrease dramatically and the odds of the other main chances to blow, of course he then had his "people" place bets at the inflated odds on these, so that no matter what, he collected a %.

He was in fact "making a book" but just tilting things in his favour LEGALLY!

So YES he was beating the book by Maths. I, in my humble way tried to emulate this tactic when it happenned naturally, but of course it was so rare that I couldn't claim any fame.

But I think though in the sense that you are talking about it is unlikely by MOST to beat the book by maths, I think the people who WIN long term are just pure lucky ( laugh at the word luck at your peril) or and most often are people who have such an incredible knowledge and understanding of horses, odds etc etc that they can come out in front.

rooburger,

I'm afraid the above doesn't really mean much as an indicator of punting success. There are plenty of rich people who like to punt. Kerry Packer was a big punter [in Casino terms, a 'whale'] .....also, overall a big loser who certainly never made his money from punting, just like most other rich people who punt.

Seeing well off people getting a few good collects doesn't mean much either. You can't possibly be shadowing the guy you mentioned every time he punts and if he was a serious winning punter he would be doing it a home on a computer and telephone chasing better odds, not at a TAB. If you know him and he tells you he is a winning punter ....well anyone here a losing punter??? See, not many hands up [if any].

I lose, not much but overall I average out at being in front 1 year in 3 and I think that's not a bad effort. I punt for pleasure and can afford my modest overall % loss and in return I get a lot of enjoyment from the game. I do have periods of success though where I think I've got the game cornered ...then reality kicks in with a losing streak. It's easy to beat a race, but it's another thing completely to beat the races. It's a negative expectation game [with or without a calculator]. The odds are well against us.

Punters will let you know [very loudly sometimes] when they are winning, but generally keep their losses quiet. Whether someone is wining or losing long term is a hard one to work out. Also, punters are often bigger lier's than fisherman. What we do know is that 95% [possibly more] of all punters lose long term and that probably holds true even for members on this forum :-)

good input guys, it,s the eternal effort that makes it fun i think.
about the guy in question if you live in adelaide as i do you will see him at angle park (my second home)
and he has his corner with his own tab operator to process his bets. i have chatted some of the tellers but they just say he bets a lot and thats all they will tell me. i understand the confidence thing.
so if in adelaide check him out. he is real.
he is a very secretive person not much emotion race to race .
cheers guys

The punt can and has been beaten by maths in fact a few old members from this site have done it.

The problem is that the guys taking the bets soon see what is going on and restrict thier betting amounts to the point there is no profit.


The way i see it being beaten is to find different bet types from different services that are totaly unrelated and pit them against each other.

Even though the TAB offere poor odds they are a good starting point because there profit is based on the input of money and not who wins and loses.

You could combine this with say a betting exchange with low margins to create your own lock position.

As yet i have not found the right bet types to Consistently make a profit.

Shaun your point about the bookies barring you is very true.

Places like Betfair are a dream come true for those barred by corporates.

This is a real important posting.

The maths is the most important part of the punt.

It doesn't matter how good at "doing the form" you are, if you can't get good enough odds to make it win financially.

As I see member after member posting "what about this angle or that angle", I can almost instinctively know that the odds will be too bad to make a profit.

The experts world over have already factored in most of these angles into the pricing structure to ensure that you cannot win.

One has to look outside the square or for a very slight niche where something has been overlooked. It's not easy, and certainly not as easy as finding the best horse in EVERY race, nor top jockey, trainers etc.

It exists in minute details that most punters do not have the time nor facility to find.

One can defy the maths, but not Win betting every race, nor necessarily every day.

The more one bets, the more loss will occur, except in the case of an edge.

I foresee the situation where I will be using a betting exchange (not Betfair) to log bets at minimum and above prices each day, and expect only 10% of them to be matched or less.

The matched bets will add up to profit over several months, this is the way of the future in defying the maths.

One of my favourites systems, still wins to this day after years in real time betting, systems can also win, and you can win betting on favourites, but only if the edge exists by being selective.

Why not Betfair Chrome?

DrRon,

It's personal, I'll never ever use them ever again after their appauling customer service and sneaky rule changes after the fact.

This is in no way a blight on anyone else using them, I just have a low tolerance for poor service and totally misleading or innaccurate emails.

Well... why the f**k are we all here if everyone says it can't be done?

Put your hand up now if you make a continuous long term profit from this...
or we may as well all give it away right?

..and if you are good enough to make a decent profit.. then apparently all the corporates ban you anyway.

I mean I may as well throw out all my data now.

I have 4 good systems I am following (they are only early but look good).
1. 162 bets, $258, 38 winners, 59%POT
2. 145 bets, $207, 24 winners, 42%POT
3. 134 bets, $209, 30 winners, 56%POT
4. 130 bets, $260, 33 winners, 100%POT (no bull********, it's a cracker!)

Now obviously, reading threads lately. These systems will soon crash and burn... right?, and I'll lose money long term.

But.. if they don't, I can't win anyway coz the bookies will limit my bets to $5- anyway, so I hear everywhere.

So what's the f**ken point really, the above are truly worthless right? Damned if they crash and burn and damned if they are successful.

Doesn't IAS say 'winners welcome', now.. if I make my first $1,000 they kick me up the road, is that right? They seemed happy to take my business last year when I invested $20,000 with them.

Really, any pro here who can shed some light if the above is fact or fiction?

PS.
I thought that by law bookies at the track had to take bets of up to $5,000.
It is the law and they can be barred if they do not take the bet, is this right?

Hi Rooburger

If its the same guy i am thinking off he has been doing it for years. A friend of mine knew him. He is very guarded. He use to make plenty and still does from what you are saying.

There was another one called spit and dribble he also punted full time at the track.

They would open a window specifically for them and there was was a minimum of $50 if i recall.

Cheers
ubetido

Yeah, I think it's the guy that posted his results, got torn to shreds on this forum after offering to supply spreadsheets, promptly said his goodbyes and since that time some forum members have seen him in action oncourse.

He has dropped in rarely (maybe once a year to post something) but won't ever respond to questions about what he does.

Good luck to him.

Just done a bit of research.. I suggest heading to the track.
Bookmakers at Doomben and Eagle Farm are required 'BY LAW' to accept bets up to the following maximum amounts:

Doomben/Eagle Farm - Saturday/Midweek - Local and Southern Events.
Rails Ring - $2000 WIN
Main Ring - $1000 WIN

Local Rule 131, Queensland Racing Committee.

So even if you are cleaning them up continuously every Saturday, say even 2 units. That is still $4,000 per week, and the pricks must take your bet!

Anyone have any info on Southern State betting rings, I cannot find anything on these websites.

Cheers,

NSW BETTING LIMITS

http://www.racingnsw.com.au/pdf/Rac...les1Mar2006.pdf

Page 106 for betting limits.

In Melbourne & I think Sydney rails bookies have to bet to lose $5,000 & off rail bookies $1,500.

However, getting on can be difficult if the bookie wants it to be as they will simply turn the price off in your face. So while it is the 'law' (it's actually a rule not a law) that they have to bet to lose those amounts, enforcing that it can be difficult. I've had it happen to me & it has happened to plenty of others.

What about getting someone else to go up for you? Tried that, did it work?

How can they turn the price off in your face?
Do you walk away and they turn the price on again for the next mug?

Man, that's insane.. the audacity!!!!

There is only 2 places for regular profit takers [all Pro Punter forum members obviously] to bet and that is Betfair and the TAB. All bookies will shaft you one way or another if your chewing into their profit including Mark Reid's AIS and Sporting bet. They are there to make a profit for themselves, not for you.

How about Austote

I have gone back to my tab accounts for this reason.
They dont pay the best, but they wont and cant restrict you.
Easy withdrawl process too.

I have a mate who does it full time and makes two bucket fulls every day.He come to work for a chat every now and then.
I wont pass it here nor anywhere but he sent me an email.

It was to and from a bookie that "welcomes" people.

They would not accept his bet, it was Bigish units, they emailed him and said they would allow him say 80 on this runner as the most they were prepared to loose was XXX,

He told them to go and get completly you know whated.

That is so pathetic.

Cheers
Dingo

Chrome,understand your feelings completely, I too am fairly harsh with being misled by sales people and other employees of various organisations. Especially banks and telcos. Wont have anything to do with our national carrier ever again.

good post guys ,we all like to express our feelings thats why this site is still going.
may the good luck fairy kiss you on the you know where.

I am really amazed and disillusioned by this post, as I aspire to make a living on the punt, ...I am making a profit, but my stakes would have to increase by MUCH more than is being talked about here, so I just don't know here to turn really, (YES I have a few relatives, with "accounts' etc BUT this not nearly enough)

As Punt 76 says , does this mean that we ARE REALLY doomed if we do DOOMED if we don't?

Hey Party,

Just lay back and enjoy the action, making enough profit to live on is possible but out goes most of the enjoyment ....if you know what I mean :-)

Ed: Any innuendos were strictly accidental !!