AusTote versus TAB Limited
 

Comparison between AusTote and TAB Limited (aka NSW).

3,223 most recent races.

pre-Commission deduction

$	Aus/NSW
1	+17.2%
2	+17.9%
3	+19.2%
4	+17.2%
5	+19.3%
6	+17.9%
7	+20.1%
8	+22.0%
9	+21.2%
10	+19.0%
20	+21.2%
30	+22.7%
40	+39.0%
50	+38.6%

JFC
 

Fascinating .
Much appreciated.
Cheers.
darky.

After noting the huge AusTote premiums on favourite Makybe Diva and some poor returns on longshots I started to wonder whether favourites were relatively underbet on AusTote and hence even better value.

So I tried that test which did not confirm my suspicions.

This one seems more conclusive.

Ignore NSW divs >= $60 (aka flukes)

It appears the roughest 3rd of NSW winners pays even better on AusTote.

NSW	Wins	Aus/NSW
< $7	2,112	+18.3%
>= $7	1,093	+22.3%

darkydog2002
 

JFC.

For such an important bit of quality information I would of thought you would get a better response from the punters than this.

Cheers.
darky.

DD,

I've been wondering that myself. But I can understand how most would not like to risk getting unwittingly involved with one further tedious interminable exchange where every phrase of mine is then subjected to analysis paralysis.

I normally put my bets on AusTote before the 20 minutes curfew so as to minimise rake, and therefore don't watch final pools much.

But my guess is that someone bets late to try and take any excess cream off the popular picks. The longshot prices are probably ignored and haphazardly benefit from this tote-crushing.

JFC
 

I can see your point.

Analyisis paralyisis / Yes ./It then just becomes tedious and boring and the whole point of the thread is lost.

I for one will gladly accept your figures with thanks.

Cheers.
darky

Don't mistake silence for lack of interest. Personally I found the first post a bit cryptic so wasn't sure what was going on but now I've got the drift I agree, very interesting.

KV

Well, can you let me in on it, KV? I still find it cryptic. Obviously, the figures suggest that using Austote is better than the TAB, but apart from that, I'm afraid I don't quite understand them.

..... or do the figures show that backing longshots on Austote does even better than backing favourites?

Morning all. The reason that very few are "interested" is that these kinds of stats only have relevance IF you were betting every horse in every race.Then you would win more (or lose less) on the favs, in general, on any tote OR with any bookie, as is already well known. This is because the favs are OBVIOUSLY in with some chance while the outsiders are often deliberately sent for practice, to get race fit etc etc but NOT to win (ie you shouldn't bet those ones). The reason JFC is so "tediously" taken to task so often is that (perhaps) he can only see one way to select horses and that he then alienates the other punters by using "provocative" comments like in POST 3, where the "surprise" winners (not to those who bet them!!) are "aka flukes" despite the many times that the same horse OR that horse's trainer pulls off these flukes. Stats can NEVER tell the whole story and my new thread will expand on this theme; ie why stats are a waste of time for "serious" punters (in horseracing). Cheers....... until soon.

Where to bet?
 

I also sit back quietly absorbing all these wonderful snippets of information and usually I don't offer a word of thanks. So let me say now "THANKYOU " to everyone who has offered up stuff for this forum. Personally I lack the fortitude to get into one of these crazy slanging matches where 'people' are argued and not the 'punting'.

On the subject of this thread I know this. For my style of betting ,which is place betting on favourites, the Qld TAB offers the ability to place the bet AFTER the jump and this for me represents a massive improvement in POT as the favourite is beaten so often before the ***king thing has left the stalls. As I've said before, I'm happy to bet on something showing $1.00 because I know there's a fair chance it will pay $1.30 or $1.50 or maybe more than the win figure by the time the race is over.

Or perhaps I excluded the 17 $60+ results because I didn't want to risk distorting the conclusions through fluke premiums.

I note the 6/11/2005 BATHURST R4 won by Royal Dane which paid $92.25 (-2%) for me versus $30.20 in NSW.

As I've mentioned before if my numbers pick something I don't get put off by bolter prices.

Anyway I look forward to your polemic on statistics, here in this sanctuary where too much controversy is never enough.

Yeah Sportz, it's really got me beat too.

What on earth could a column titled Aus/NSW mean in a topic titled AusTote versus TAB Limited?

And the 1st column titled $ is even worse.

What could the sequences 1 ...9 and 10 ... 50 (step 10) possibly indicate?

I've tried Barriers, TAB#'s, Techform Ratings, Age, runs from spell, days since last start and Impact Values but none of them quite fit.

It certainly can't be odds groups because you have to type:

4.00 - 4.99

and

20.00 - 29.99

instead of simply 4 and 20.

Yeah, well you would do that if you wanted to make it easier to understand. And you would also make it clear what that $ value actually represents. The horse's official starting price or it's TAB price or what?

I suspect such details aren't terribly important, because alternative groupings should give similar results.

However for the purists:

Column 1 groups (final) NSW divs in first whole $ clusters, then $10 clusters as samples diminish.

Column 2 is sum(AUS Divs)/sum(NSW Divs) expressed as a +/- %.

Note that I sum the divs before taking the ratio as I believe that minimises distortions.

If I instead summed the ratios first and then added, weirdos could give problems.

e.g. the highest ratio is an amazing 4.705 = $36.70/$7.80. How much would that distort a column with an otherwise ratio of ~1.20?

jfc,

I am interested also.

I couldn't quite work out what the numbers meant next to the percentages, but I'm getting the drift that with commission taken out, you'd still be at least 10% better off.

Now, if I can gain 10% better return on many of my losing systems, I'd be winning!

There are literally hundreds of angle's I've ditched because of a slight loss.

But what is the liquidity of the pools like? I've been waiting for them to build up to reasonable levels.

The moral here is if one cannot win with a 10% increase in prices, one should not be in the game.

Gday Chrome

I could not make head nor tail of the figures so I stayed out... (I still can't...its outside my area of expertise) But with your comments I can see an argument coming along the lines of turning flat stake losing in to staked winning... You would remember that long and IMHO tedious argument on another forum... on this very subject.. Some say you cant turn a loser into a winner, whilst others disagree...I happen to think that if you are close to break even you CAN make money with even the most elementary staking progression plan... Oh and if those figures DO mean that Austote is 10% better than NSW, count me in.. but I share your concerns about pool size, and what sort of damage one can do with a decent bet.

Chrome,

Precisely what I've been doing. I've dredged up some old false prophets/profits and reenlisted them back into AusTote boot camp.

If they can't buck a 2% (1st 2 months) rake then there's no hope for them.

In case anyone's wondering SmartGambler is listed as an affiliate. And I have no vested interest.

The liquidity is irrelevant, because unlike Betfair your bets always go on. The pools are now surprisingly high as you can check from their results.

http://www.austote.com/results.asp

I note many here use them. But why aren't the others.

I think my figures suggest that after rake you'd be at least 12% better off.

xptdriver,

No, I wasn't going to enter into the staking debate, as I am a level stakes man ;)

But the small losses of many systems, mean that a profit can now be achieved, still using level stakes.

I'm answering this much for myself as for others because some of the figures are counter-intuitive.

If NSW rake is 16% why does the AusTote premium show as ~19%?

Because the expected ratio is calculated as 100/(100-16) = 100/84 = 1.190

Worst case you only get 95% of that = 1.131.

So that leaves you ~13% better off.

But if you bet at least 20 minutes before the worst rake is 3.5%.

And that in theory leaves you 14.9% better off.

In practice it looks as if shorties aren't all that far below that but roughies give you a nice spice bonus.

A couple of other things that those who do not use Austote at the moment should note:

They don't field all races --- none today as far as I can see.

They do indicate how much has been invested in the pool at any moment

The Virtual FormGuide shows Austote's pool and the pools for the three mainland totes together, and that service is free

Unfortunately they do not take place bets (again, in so far as I can see)

i sorry but statements like the above give me grief.
liquidity of Austote pool is very much a concern.
take the example given before of $92.25 winner. i have very good longshot system which did not pick this horse this day but for sake of example assume it did. i put $100 on this longshot system so if i bet with austote this horse then only pay $41.80. less than half of published dividend. (yes still better than best tote but this will not be case always)
take another example. on same day i actually pick princess fong at caloundra. it pay $1.90 on austote. (i actually get better than this but that different story). this system i put $1000 onto winner. if i put this on austote it only pay $1.20.
yes it true that same money on any tote will effect dividend but it not effect dividend much as on austote. pool at caloundra on tab was ~ $22000 pool at caloundra on austote was $557. i put this bet on tab and price change from $1.80 to $1.70 (maybe $1.60)

let me say i very much like austote. i think is good idea and i very much like to see liquidity improve so i can bet much there. unfortunately i very much like to win and therefore i only place very small bets on austote. yes i use austote but only for testing new idea with very small dollars. here austote very good and generally pay good. with big money have to be very careful not to effect dividend too much.
Thank you. Winston.

austote have holiday every monday

Winston,

Your associate has disclosed his betting patterns here:




Yet you entertain putting $100 bets on AusTote on runners showing ~$90 expecting the dividend to be halved!

And you go on to $1000 bets.

Perhaps this may go someway to explaining your own betting accomplishments.

Shhhhhhhh......

mr jfc
i look for relevant part in post made by you and end up with this
it is pity that you cannot have proper discussion with person who disagree with you. I make valid comment about pool size on austote and you reply with irrelevant and improper remark. for the record i not know or associate with this stebbo you refer to apart from reading many of the things he say on many forums. i not agree with everything he say just as i not agree with everything you say. and im not scared to challenge his statement just like i challenge yours. you talk about quotes earlier today and these two are also liked by me
if you see error in my calculation or disagree with my statement then im happy to discuss with you.
Thank you. Winston.

I hate to disturb the polite exchange of frank and meaningful views by our regular combatents but:
I've never used Austote (never seemed to have the races I wanted to bet on) so I'm not familiar with how they operate. Is it along the same lines as the TAB, i.e. win pool divided by the number of winning bets and then a commission creamed from the winnings?
(And I hope my polite question doesn't earn quite so sharp a response as you got sportz).

KV

Yeah, it's tough around here, KV. :D

Tab markets operate on about 118%, Austote operates on around 100.4% this means u get in most cases much better odds and therefore it is easier to win:)

It is unlikely that tab odds will better than austotes unless for some reason there is alot of money on one horse. for example if the pool is only 3000 and someone puts 100 bucks on a 100/1 chance then obviously the odds are gonna come in.

I forget why i wrote this now but anyways, it may help:)

SOME PEOPLE HAVE TO MUCH SPARE TIME
 

...............SILLY BOYS IS ALL CHOPPER HAD TO SAY....................

........................CHEERS.................... ............SLOWMAN.....................

mr kenny victor
yes austote similar in that it is parimutual pool like TAB. but with two major advantage. one it only take 5% or less from winning and two it round to 5c not 10c.
two items to be careful about. one dividend it show on page is before commission so $2.00 on austote is not as good as $2.00 on TAB and two pool sizes are small and be effected by large bet
i like austote interface very quick and very nice. it also have dutchbook calculator built in.
Thank you. Winston.

Winston,

You truncated my original comment:



to




Thus changing my intended meaning of liquidity to your quite different dubious meaning.

Then you used that misquotation to try and pick another fight.

I'll let everyone form their own opinion as to whether you are really trying to participate in an intelligent discussion, or whether you have a hidden agenda.

GEES JFC
 

I see what you mean.

Cheers.
darky,

Winston makes a very good point about any large bet on Austote having a dramatic affect on the dividends.

For example, taking the largest paying divided on Austote on the day from last Saturday, it was race 3 @ Ascot, a small field in which Trochee the outsider of the field won paying $29.85 in a win pool that amounted to $22,985.

Now as Winston has pointed out those dividends are pre take-out as that is a variable depending on user points gained (turnover).

One additional bet (or collective bets) of $200 on the winner would have reduced the dividend to $23.90 and assuming a user take-out rate of 5% would have further reduced the final payout to just $22.70.

The NSW tote after the take-out and rounding down paid a dividend of $24.60.

Here's another comparison. This is Best tote against NSW. Figures are over about 12000 races from the start of this year where all 3 tabs had a pool.

$ Best/NSW

1 +7.53%

2 +8.01%

3 +8.10%

4 +7.80%

5 +8.52%

6 +9.44%

7 +8.28%

8 +9.23%

9 +10.96%

10 +11.43%

20 +13.39%

30 +11.88%

40 +13.57%

50 +10.11%

KV

AusTote versus NSW and Best Tote
 

KV,

Useful stuff.

I've taken the liberty of combining our efforts.

$Div	Aus/NSW	Aus/Best
1	+17.2%	+8.99%
2	+17.9%	+9.16%
3	+19.2%	+10.27%
4	+17.2%	+8.72%
5	+19.3%	+9.93%
6	+17.9%	+7.73%
7	+20.1%	+10.91%
8	+22.0%	+11.70%
9	+21.2%	+9.22%
10	+19.0%	+6.79%
20	+21.2%	+6.89%
30	+22.7%	+9.67%
40	+39.0%	+22.39%
50	+38.6%	+25.87%

mr jfc
yes i "truncate" your message. most people call it "trimming" and i read in "Netiquette Guide" to do this. Elsewhere on this forum you state that you trust intelligent people to go back and read what was actually written. that is why i deliberately leave in ", because" in my quote for people to see there was more. BTW you conveniently misquote me to make your point by leaving this part out. do you have "hidden agenda" in your misquote?

mr chrome prince ask
But what is the liquidity of the pools like? I've been waiting for them to build up to reasonable levels.
you dismiss his concern offhand with factually correct but irrelevant reference to betfair then classify austote pools as "surprisingly high"
(anyone wishing to read actual statement go to http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showpos...26&postcount=18)
i did not take to task either of these statement. i could have launched into statement calling farcical your reference as "surprisingly high". justified in light of $557 pool size for race 1 at caloundra that day. but i did not.
in fact your post actually ask why others not use Austote. (again, click above link to read actual post). my post is direct response to mr chrome prince question and your question. it explain clearly why i not use austote for serious bet.
Thank you. Winston.

Winston,

Remarkable how your posting style has undergone sudden drastic changes, while your grammar stays inconsistent.

You used to bold but now you underline.

You now italicise instead of your usual


And you now go to the trouble of telling people that they need to click on hyperlinks! How did they ever manage before?



But I'm sure no one else will notice.

yes. wonderful thing this bulletin board. it have wonderful help system which show me how to do many thing like change colour or add smilie :rolleyes:. many intelligent people use it to learn new thing. pity it not have section on gramar. :(
Thank you. Winston.

SILLY BOYS IS ALL CHOPPER HAD TO SAY