Punters Sentiment Meter?
 

Need a bit of excel help here (walkermac, the maestro, where are you?)

This idea could be of interest to all and sundry though. In DNA of a Longshot Winner, I toyed with the idea of a pattern recognition theory using the flucs. It assigned a colour if on course flucs shortened, drifted or steady. This time I'm looking at all the Betfair flucs from Open to Close.

The Logic: If they're are more shorteners than drifter flucs, you could say that punters reckon the selection's got a chance and vice versa. Well the jury's out on that one! You could look at weight of money too, but I haven't seen anything conclusive there either. However if you included the price value into the equation, could that be more reliable?

In the attachment are the Betfair flucs of four runners in a race. The closing fluc is always the top of each column of flucs. Working from bottom to top, the Open fluc is assigned a positive number to begin each sequence. Any consecutive number higher than previous fluc remains a positive number. Any consecutive number lower than the previous is assigned a negative value (red text). At the end of each sequence, in col E, the sum of the positive and negative flucs is totalled. It's getting columns D & E to work in excel, is my bugbear, as it needs to recognise the change to next runner, as well as higher or lower value of cell under.

Once I've got that, I can Pivot Table the spreadsheet and see what values were place getters and whether or not there's a pattern emerging.

Thanks in anticipation :)

hehehe,
Your having a lend.

Might be, but check this out. Notice anything about the Sum of the first 3 placegetters compared to the rest?

All these sorts of things are building blocks that might not work stand alone, but combined with a few others might build you a successful system/method. So take off the blinkers and look around where no one else is looking. ;)

I have to make some assumptions here. Firstly this is not a one off. Secondly that you have noticed a trend. Thirdly it is a significant trend. Fourthly you have only looked a small sample and alerting us.
How many samples have you looked at and how many match your observations?
Furthermore this could only be done with Betfair as the oncourse flucs are a result of human manipulation. Similarly it could not be done on tote prices as the weight of money on any horse affects all prices.

The Betfair flucs are matching of a lay bet and back bet, and is a matter of accepting what is available at the time. Each and every matched bet creates a fluc. Hence this would need to be automated as some races must generate thousands of flucs. The Cup would most likely be the benchmark, so how many flucs occur in that event?

First and foremost, this thread is not a Gimme, no keys to the kingdom here, unless you're prepared to put in the time consuming effort of collecting data and analysing it. That'll cut out 98% of readers, sad but true. If it turns out to be successful, I certainly won't be spruiking about it, shhh!!

Just an idea based on a little logic and a spoonful of observations. The main purpose is to glean from others, more adept at excel, a formula so that I can test a large sample. Then, anyone reading this thread will have the IDEA and the TOOLS to test for themselves.

Just when I was getting the hang of the younger generation and their expectation of ask and you will receive because one has the God given right to anything one wants, you go and tell me to be Lieutenant Rowan. Besides "keys to the kingdom" implies that one would have to unlock the door. I was of the opinion that the younger generation expects the door to be already open.

Keep these left field ideas coming.

I,ll pass.
hehehe

Re-using some of those inelegant formulas again (though it has its advantages as well)


In D2:


In E2:


In F2:


In G2:



Fill Down.


Remember me when you earn too much money to spend... ;)

Works a treat, thanks again and again.

Don't worry walkermac, if I come up with something viable, I'll repay you in spades.

Cheers

Cheap fella. Spring for some Crownies at least

C'mon Wally, he might live in WA, like you. Think about the freight costs? He's already got the Excel Gold Cup sitting on his mantelpiece. I'll see what I can organise.

Whenever I have a new idea I will always ensure that my simulations are completed using a statistically representative sample data pool. That step alone is a challenge in itself.

There are a lot of interesting ideas in this forum, from the very obscure, to the simplistic to the very creative - all of which provide food for thought. I hope people will punch through a significant number of simulations prior to placing their hard earned.

It will be interesting to see your results after more trials. Good luck!

The driving force behind a forum such as this is to present "interesting ideas in this forum, from the very obscure, to the simplistic to the very creative - all of which provide food for thought" from inception so that others can benefit and contribute with the aim of developing (or debunking) horse racing systems.
To formulate, then test and present a working system complete with supporting data as you propose will never happen.
This is an incubation site where ideas are presented and grown with contribution of many. The learned, the sages, the gurus, the average joeblow, the newbie and the naive, They all contribute. Some revelations come from the latter presenting a new look on old chestnuts.

"I hope people will punch through a significant number of simulations prior to placing their hard earned." sound advice and I hope so too. The ideas and systems presented are pointers to consider only. We are not here to protect people from themselves. If someone takes the information presented and uses it with out self verification then it is on their head.

Thanks for your post and I hope that when you have a new idea that you need help on, that you will post and ask for help.

Interested in this... do you think the manipulation of on course flucs is by the bookies or the punters?

Out of context. I was stating that this method could only truly be used with Betfair. Maybe I should have said Human adjustment. The betfair prices are a result of the market. Two people agreeing to a price subject to the prices being offered. That acceptance does not affect any other price. Whereas if a on course bookie suddenly gets an interest in a horse, he adjusts the market to compensate. Not only does this affect the horse in question, he adjusts some or all the other horses.

Makes sense, thanks. I guess in a quiet/early market only the shortening on-course flucs are signals of activity.

Hi Playlife, nice to see a new name appear of late. I agree with everything Beton's said. You'll never ever see the results of using this method, or variation thereof, published by me anyway. Apart from forum members, there are 10 times more site visitors from anywhere and everywhere in the world, all hoping to pick up an idea. The ideas are here for everyone to read, not many prepared to put in the time to chase them though. I often use the word "shhh!!" in my posts. It's not so much to disguise something, it's more a salute, that by this time tomorrow, that post will be buried by the shifting sands and long forgotten. Going back through the archives here will enlighten and improve anyone's punting skills.

As you interact with others on this site you'll eventually build up relationships and be invited to correspond directly with them and vice versa. Personally, the posts I publish would only amount to 10% of direct emails to other forumites. If you only knew, it would stagger you, the amount of time, effort and money spent on developing methods and systems, all underground, to what appears on this and likeminded forums.

Keep up the interest and you'll reap the rewards....or maybe we'll reap the rewards from knowing you?
Cheers