Your Thoughts Readers, please...
 

Hi,

I've been punting for many years and have my ups and downs, as do most..

Often been interested in finetuning my betting side... (the form side does ok)

Can anyone throw some light on wether Proportional Betting is better than straight out betting?

My Definitions, so we don't get sidetracked on to missundestandings..

Proportional betting is when you vary the size of your bet in accordance with the odds (value) you can get, and comes in two forms..

(1) Proportional betting (A) : A target amount divided by the available odds e.g. $100 / $2.50 = a bet of $40 to return you $100 if sucessfull (including your stake)

and
(2) Proportional betting (B): A target amount divided by the available odds-1 e.g. $100 / ($2.50 -$1.00) = a bet of $67 to return you $167 if sucessfull ($100.00 clear profit)

(3) Straight out betting say I have $40 to bet with (some porportion of my bank) so I bet it on the best price I can get, say its $2.50, or $3.00 I don't alter the stake just bet the whole $40.00


So readers, who thinks method 1,2, or 3 will be better of in the long term, given the average run of wins and loses you might expect? And who would have the least heart ache when a losing day or two is struck?

Love to hear some lively discussion on this, it poses a very interesting question don't you think?

Regards
OzPunter

Ozpunter
 

For me definitely Method 1.

darky.

And your logic for saying this Mr. darky is?


OzPunter

I just like betting to my asessed price.

In your 6/4 example $2.50 = $40 then anything at this price or better would still have $40 placed on it.
If the bookie offered me 10/1 I would win $400.
A very simple,easy, and good way to keep track of your staking in my opinion.

Thats just what I would do.Everyone would have a different opinion.

Cheers.
darky

Sorry to keep you out of bed, but your last creates another question... Can you explain your logic behind how you create your own prices... I've tried it using the figures I handicap to and I get silly results, so how do you go about it... Just the concept and logic, I'm not probing for your formulas..


To clarify your responce to the last, you are saying that you create your own prices and then proportional bet to those prices? not the market on offer.. If your assesment is correct and you only bet when you have an overlay you'll make heaps...(providing your assesment is accurate of course)


Regards

OzPunter

Hi Oz,,,got some interesting advice from a full time punter ..

He stakes depending on how much his top rater is ahead of the next rated horse,,
example..
Black Ink 2.80
Sir Monashee 5.5
Foxmore 6.20
Black Suit 8.50

his top rater is 2.7 ahead of the next rater ..he would then have a scale
1.5 / 2 he would outlay $100
2 / 2.50 $200
2.5 / 3 $300
ect

so in this case he'd have backed Black ink for $300

I like his way of thinking and have been phantom trialling this recently for some good results..

Well there's logic in that maverick, the further you rate your runner ahead of the rest the more you stake on it.. Seems sensible really.

I've seen something similar in some of the punting books I studied, but I'd like to see some P&L figures over three months or more before I took it on.. Logically though if your top rated does Ok then you should be ahead...

So many ways to approach this... If you can go to a TAFE to become a tradesman, or a uni to become a doctor/lawyer where do you go to become a Professional Punter... This learn as you go along caper is full of pitfalls.

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Best way of learning if you ask me. Nothing like getting your fingers burned.

I have read a number of books which suggest betting to Takeout Return a fixed amount including the O/L is the stronger . (no.1)
Your outlays are also less.

Example.
Say one wins 2 races in a row.
2/1 ($3)
4/1 ($5)

Betting to Target Profit $100
2/1--O/L $50-- Ret $150
4/1--O/L $25-- Ret $125
Total O/L $75
Total Ret $275
Profit $200

267% POT

Betting to Takeout Return ,fixed amount including the O/L $100
2/1 (3.00) --O/L 33.00 Ret $100
4/1 (5.00) --O/L 20.00 Ret $100
Total O/L $53
Total Ret $200
Profit $147

277% POT

10 Pt Diff, in favour or Takeout Return. (No.1 option)

No.1 option works best on longer priced horses say $3.50+

No.2 option works best on shorter prices horses say $2.90 & less & the O/L is also much greater, so the SR had better be high.

Example 2
5/1 & 10/1
Result would be...
666% POT (option No.2) &
699% POT (option No.1) respectivly.
33 Pt Diff, in favour of betting to Takeout Return (No.1 option)

The larger the price , the better No.1 option works over No.2 option.

The idea is to go through say 50 results & work it out to Percentage POT.
This should give one a clearer picture, rather than straight Dollar figures.
It's the Percentage that counts , not the dollars..

For those interested in Dutch Betting , this is also the preferred method,
over say the other 2 Dutching methods of betting which is, betting to a fixed amount O/L & betting to a fixed profit, no matter which two or three horses win, because longterm , its the shorter price of the 2-3 selections that will win the more races.

Betting to Takeout Return, the outlays are also usually less to acheive a similar or better percentage result & that has to be a good thing.

Cheers.

True AngryPixie,

But why do the graduates of the "school of hard knocks", have so many cuts and bruises?

There has got to be an easier way....

But I suppose that is what this forum is all about though...

I wonder if any true professionals bother to read these columns, I know I wouldn't bother once I hit the big time... Which I will, mind you...
I just have to keep searching..

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Crazy not to. There's some good stuff here on occasion. A true professional would always be on the lookout for new angles, not lolling off in some complacent daze.

I mostly bet proportionally around a set flat stake. The amount I bet depends on the overlay value of the bet. The lower the value, the lower the bet and vis-a-vis. This type of proportional betting particular suits punters who handicap their races [do the form].

I work out the overlay value by using my own priceline for what I believe are the winning chances in a race. Pricing is dependent on the number of winning chances and the field size of the race. I'll generally ignore races with more than 14 runners or races with too many winning chances [more than 4], except for the odd big Group or Cup race.

A punter needn't price every horse in a race, just the possible winning chances and after a bit of practice it's easy enough to to do in your head. It's more art than science.

Three good winning chances in race of 12 starters? OK, to work out an initial basic SP price, that's a 25% winning chance for each horse with a 25% chance for the rest of the field and the unexpected.
So my winning contenders have an initial 1 chance in 4 each or an SP of $5 each. Fine tuning kicks in now and from my [further] handicapping efforts I'll work out a final SP price for each winning chance. Which horse I back will depend on the prices offered [value], not just backing which of the three I think will win, because we are so often wrong [I'm chasing value, not what I think are 'winners'].

There is no rocket science involved here [just practice], because regardless of method, everyone ends up with an educated guess regarding a fair SP.
Among my winning chances I will often back a runner because of a large overlay above the SP price I've set for it, even though I think one of my other winning chances has a slightly better chance of winning.

EG: I backed Jokers Wild who came 3rd in the Cadbury Guineas because I picked it up at 27/1 early on Betfair and only just missed on a very large collect. It lost but it was still a very good bet because it almost pinched the race. Luckily I also backed JW for the place, which payed more than the winner Miss Finland [great win!] anyway.

Yesterday [Mond. 12th] I picked up Pinsemont (NZ) at the Valley, a good back-marker in an outside alley at 14/1. A very good chance against Fearless Waters, who at 4/1 was poorish value. Pinsemont ran over the top of them and I'd put twice as much on it as I would have on Fearless Waters [ 2nd]. Pinsemont was way over it's true odds as Back-markers in outside alleys often are, BECAUSE they are in outside alleys and most punters wouldn't know a back-marker from a on-pacer.

I used the same betting approach on Jillimarg in R4 at Morphetville. At 12/1 it was way overs, but it was just beaten by the favorite Maloose [3/1]. Win some, lose some.

Cheers.

Well said, crash.

Dear Crash & YoungBuck,

As you know I am very serious about mastering this art and remain willing to learn whenever I find a worthy contribution. Too many times I hear garbage uttered from people who claim to be professional and it only serves to cloud the field, but definately not so in your response Crash, You obviously know what you're talking about..

I'd love to learn more from you if you have the inclination to part with your hard won secrets you can contact me at OzPunter01@gmail.com for some private conversation..

Otherwise I'll take on board what you've said and put it in the "to be studied and examined " basket...

Thanks Again, Crash

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Dear AngryPixie,

Can you tell me who Dick Mitchell was and where I can buy one of his books?

Regards
OzPunter

I have always felt that PICWIZ the manuscript( chock full of winning stats and data) from Malcolm Knowles gave the budding professional punter the best leg up to achieving that goal.

Cheers.
darky.

Thanks DarkyDog, It's on my list of things to buy..

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Oz

The late Dick Mitchell was a US based punter, author, maths whizz whose no crap approach to writing really appeals to me. I've the two books below which are now out of print I think, but you can find second hand copies on eBay or Amazon.

Winning Thoroughbred Strategies

Commonsense Handicapping : the Logical, Left-Brained Approach to Winning at

A fair bit of each book deals with US racing as you'd expect, but alot of the other stuff I've found very thought provoking.

A short bio on Dick here

http://www.cynthiapublishing.com/dickmitchell.html

PS: Look. You can say crap and not get ****'d. crap, Crap, CRAP :D

whats a proffessional punter ?? is this a punter who's soul earnings are on the punt ?? or is this a punter whos successful, bets in big dollars, goes around saying he is ??

i suppose you cant be an unsuccessful punter unless you have an enormous bank but the term gets thrown around all the time..

i like to use the term "Full time Punter" ,,i know a couple who seem to be pretty good at it ,,or atleast say they are...

i've been lucky enough to actually have a good profit going on almost 4 years now... does this mean i'm a pro punter ?? would look nice on a business card :) but does that mean i have to give up my day job ??

Thanks AngryPixie, i'll look them up at the library, you never know where they turn up..

Thanks Again,

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Actually it's a eulogy isn't it. Not a bio. :o

All this talking of professionals, ahhh, what a life.

I would love nothing more than to have that business card in the wallet, just imagine pulling it out,

"MR PUNT"

professional gambler

Phone: (dont bother, i wont answer)
Business Adress:(Rosehill/caufeild/spare room down stairs)

Seriously though, i would love to be that good.

I have had insight into a couple of lads out here who are, their life aint that flash i must say but they are full time.

But how long is a piece of string, when does one rip up the mortgage papers, tell the boss to get nicked.

For me, it will be when i have a bank that can withstand a massive run off outs so i can write it off and start again.

Secondly i do have a place/target thing that does make a good return, it is "enough" to do a certain thing for me each month, but i refuse do it for a living as i dont wont my kids going to school and having them tell others "ah, my dady sits at home betting on horses" if you all know where im going.

So, its a FEW years away for me at the moment.

I did see a very flash green sports car in the area a couple of times with plates "punter", it wasnt mr ponting.

Great topic.

D

Well Dingo,
I'm sure it can be done and I don't expect it to be easy... Once your kids are in uni (like mine) and you don't have to work to pay bills you may find the urge to try doing it for a full time income..

I've known 3 or 4 who claim to be professional but what they really are doing is making enough to live on from selling their tips and systems an punting with the rest... I doubt if anyone who buys their stuff ever makes money out of it and so it's a bit sad because I also know a family that was destoyed when the breadwinner lost his job (punting at work) and then put in their savings to try to get a better life... Shot himself eventually and now there's three kids with no dad and a widdow on a pension...

I don't have much respect for those that sell systems...

Still if you're gonna succeed you have to do it the hard way..

Kind Regards
OzPunter

A pro. punter is one who actually lives off the punt, not a punter who can show a regular profit. I think perhaps Mark is a pro. punter [sorry Mark if I'm wrong] who has the ability and capacity to arbitrage a large amount of money on Betfair every week. Enough for the slender profit % to enable a life on it but he probably has other forms of income too. Anyone else here [not me anyway]? I doubt it.
In fact I think there are very few pro. punters in Oz. Big punters sure, but Pro. punters who live off punting? I don't think so.

Well Crash,

That's interesting because if one can turn in $500.00 a week that's 26,000 per year, without a lot of expenses that is fairly easy to live off.. So 4 -5 sizable bets of $5,000 per year based on $2-3 return would put a punter in the right ball park..

I read in the paper of one or two guys that bet in the 10s of thousands each week and show a profit, so if they can do it, why can't we?

I stll recon it can be done..

Regards
OzPunter

$500 a week isn't living mate and I'd like anyone here who thinks they can manage even that profit to put up their bets for a month to prove it [without puting a '0' after their 'actual' bet amounts].

You reckon it can be done because you 'read about it'? Which system seller was telling you that?

When I said $500 per week, I meant as an average... You only need to sit back and wait for that Ideal bet to come along and bet it with a reasonable sized bet and then sit back and wait for the next...

I'm not talking about lots of bets every week like some of the system sellers do, you'll shurely go broke doing that...

What about Shuan what's-his-name... bets in the hundreds of thousands...

Slow calculatig and decisive actions will surely lead to the right result.

Regards
OzPunter

What's an 'ideal bet" [without hindsight :-) ]?

I've been watching this guy for the last year or so and he's on a nice run,,hard to argue the stats ,,

"3 in a row with Pompeii winning easily. Here are the updates results and striking at 50% in 2007 and 47% since last May still at over $6 and over $80000 profit based on a $1000 straight out staking method.
As stated late last year, why work?. The reason is because runs of outs will happen. We have had them before and runs of winners like now.

Here are the tips thus far from May 2006

6/5/06 Ikes Dream 4th $2.90
7/5/06 Perfectly Ready 1st $19.10
13/5/06 Belmonte 1st $5.00
20/5/06 Above Deck 1st $2.80
27/5/06 Shania Dane dist $7.00
3/6/06 Gaze dist $4.00
12/6/06 Art Success 1st $6.00
17/6/06 Douro Valley dist $3.25
24/6/06 Fumble 3l $16
1/7/06 Empyreal 1st $16.00
13/7/06 Rocking On 1st $7.00
22/7/06 Smart & Mighty 1st $4.50
29/7/06 Haddle McDaddle 3rd $3.00
9/9/06 Caprizzi Strip 1st $6.00
16/9/06 Brockmans Lass 2nd $5.50
22/9/06 Tuesdays Joy 2nd $6.00
7/10/06 Accordo (stiff) 4th $3.00
14/10/06 Sera Cielo dist $5.00
21/10/06 Get Square 1st $6.00
28/10 Zipping 1st $3.00
4/11/06 Seachange 2nd
11/11/06 Valkyrie Diva 4th
18/11/06 Alais 1st $3.70
25/11/06 Ejaad X
2/12/2006 Delago Blitz X
16/12/2006 Taken at the flood 1st $6.00
23/12/2006 Bianomour 1st $5.00
1/1/2007 Pinions 4th
13/1/2007 Publishing 8th
13/1/2007 Sonic Quest 1st $6.00
20/1/2007 Hey Rosie X
26/1/2007 Dane Empire X
27/1/2007 Lucky Unicorn 1st $3.90
3/2/2007 Shasta X
10/2/07 El Segundo 1st $3.00
17/2/07 North of Havana X
24/2/07 Apache Cat 1st $2.50
3/3/07 Cinque Centro 1st $10.00
10/3/07 Pompeii Ruler 1st $4.50

Strike rate of winners = 49%
Average starting price of winners = $6.34
Outlay $39000; Return $120400
Profit since May 2006 $81400 "

I envisage a computer program that will analyse every race at a given meeting and provide a profile of which races may contain an ideal bet, requireing further investigation..

After investigation and rating the runner as a straight out bet, or as a place bet, or as Lay bet, or even as part of a dutch book bet you should be able to come up with betting situation say once a month, or once a week on average.

Then you stll have to decide wether to step in or not...

If you do, you should expect to win an your results should give you the confidence to do so...

It's a lot of work for little action, but the string of positive results you get can be quite outstanding.. I personally had a string of 8 wins late last year doing just that... Now I was only betting in the $25 range but had I gone harder the profits would have been quite substantial..

Take a $500 amount and double it 4 times and you get $8,000 so do that over 3 months and you should be able to live off of it...

I find it hard to accept that for the millions of punters that flock to the races evey week or log onto betting sites that evey single punter is losing... Shure 99.9% do lose, and we all know why.. Its finding the .01% that's the chalange... They must be out there..

It's still worth trying, to give up is to fail for sure.

Kind Regards
OzPunter

But are his bets a $1000 straight out staking method? Maybe $100, or perhaps even $10? We'll never know will we. It's one thing to have the runs on the board but it's entirely different to be able to afford big enough bets to return a living without risking the rent [mortgage] money.

Bet size here for punters is more than likely a bit like fish size on fishing forums.

I agree, the pressures of life don't allow us the luxury of taking risks...

Ever started a business from scratch? In a untried field based on a hunch and a good Idea... I have, twice... Both were sucessfull and looking back I could have made more money staying with my regular job...I'd probably have gone crazy but I'd wouldn't know just how high my blood pressure can get before you colapse...The things you lear along the way through life.

Regards
OzPunter

He's not a fan of beting this way,,i think he was trying to prove a point,,,hes actually your typical handicaper , frames his own markets bets according to value ect ,,claims to make small profits consistently ..

But Ozpunters post about a set stake on a special reminded me of this guy..

Thanks for the compliment (?) crash.
I wouldn't say I'm a pro punter as I make books, mostly laying, sometimes trading. 100% of my income comes from Betfair, week in week out. It's not huge and certainly not an exciting living, but it's regular. Unfortunately it is becoming harder every day, partly, I believe due to the proliferation of bots, but also a lot of people who were on Betfair from the start have realised that they still cannot win and have dropped out. I am always trialling other things (see today's Mark does a Maria update !!!), but they usually fall by the wayside.

The trouble with what I do is that is has spolit me. I have become used to the regular profits, so when it comes to betting I have turned into a sook. I hate losing, even a few dollars and so am loathe to risk even the smallest amount. When it comes to my trialling different ideas, I think what I need is someone who I can tell what I want done, and then go out for a week, have them bet for me, and just tell me at the end of the week what the result is. I hate the ups and downs.

When I started this post I was looking for answers as to why some punters seem to know certain runners are going to win... For all the efforts I put in I can't seem to come up with those sorts of results...

Think about Mentality and Spark of Life on Saturday, they were backed off the map... So how do people know they are going to win?

Out of this I gotten the gist that many punters actually believe they will lose.. While we should accept that losing is part of the game so to should we expect to win and winning should be part of the game...

I also have taken that truely professional punters either don't read this forum much or simply enjoy sitting back and having a chuckle as they watch us all squabble over the possibilities.

I stll belive that a managed professional approach will result in success.

Kind Regards All
OzPunter

Hi Mark,

What you need is a computer programmer!!! Drop me a line at OzPunter01@gmail.com and I might be able to help you out..

To err is human, but to really screw things up, you need a computer!

Regards
OzPunter

Nice offer for Mark Oz, but I think the programming thing is already being done to death after what I've been reading about UK Betfair.

Mark got in early here before all the high tech bot programs started to infiltrate. If the UK is any example, we are heading down the same road and the Lay gravy will become thinner and thinner requiring larger capital investment for the same profit flow.

With all that in mind, after I recently joined Betfair I never jumped onto the Lay bandwagon. I keep doing what I'm best at [backing]. What I have been taking advantage of is the huge overlays regularly on offer from some of the seriously amateur bookies around, often Laying ridiculous high odds on unsuspecting but serious winning chances. I've made some good money off them but I'm sure none of it was from Mark :-)

Sounds a bit like me Mav. Looking over my books for the last 3yrs. if I could have afforded to whack a zero on my bet sizes I would have been able to live off the punt. Personally though I would have needed a bit of capital on the side though to ride the occasional bumps that come along. I live a shared life and I just can't afford to risk the large betting capital I once did when single.

I've never found punting smooth sailing as there is often a bit of famine and feast, depending on the time of year. The odd but fairly regular big collects from outsiders is where the main profit is for me nowadays. I don't need that many to stay in the game.

Actually Crash,

You're off the beam a little, it wasn't what I was offering Mark at all... I've looked into writing a robot for B/F but it is much harder to do than many think... First of all you have the timing problems where the odds are changing while you're processing etc... But more over I found the B/F API to be most unreliable.. I can't say it's buggy but there are lots of things that don't perform as expected... and lots of people in their tech help side that have little or no knowledge on the subject..

In my opinion to make a robot work on B/F you'd need to be connected direct to their servers and paying top dollar (200+ pounds a mth) for the service...I imagine that works well in England but here on our small pools, youd be struggling..I can think of easier ways to go crazy...

I have found B/F to be a could source of uneducated money...

Regards
OzPunter

'Off the beam a little'? My life story!