Interesting top weight betting system
 

Here is an interesting way of selectively betting top weighted horses in handicaps.

1. This betting system operates on metropolitan meetings in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide on Saturdays.

2. The horse must be top weight in a handicap. So eliminate weight for age races, classic races, set weight races and set weight with penalties races.

3. The horse must have won over the track and distance.

4. It must have finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. at its last run within the last 28 days.

That's it.

I checked last Saturday's Doomben races.

There were two bets:

Spot The Diff 1st. $2.35
Casual Choice 1st. $7.00

Here are Saturday's selections.

Caulfield
8/1 Charmed Harmony

Morphettville
1/1 Excites Zelady
4/1 Beautiful Flyer

Selection for Saturday, 23rd. April.

Morphettville
3/1 Silent Whisper

Moonee Valley, 26 Nov, R3 Estaminet

Morphettville, 26 Nov, R5 Casino Wizard

I have a top weight system but differs from what you have identified.
It hums along and always surprises me that it picks so many big price winners.
It is based on the simple idea that the handicapper knows a lot more about horse racing than I ever will.

And yes I use a few filters but these mainly relate to states and tracks as I have indicated before. It also filters out my voodoo tracks.

Star Exhibit would have qualified if Ascot included,,won,,26 Nov

Canterbury, 9 Dec, R2 Black On Gold

Rosehill, 10 Dec, R4 Alart

Morphettville, 17 Dec, R3 Pepper the Pin

Hi BD1

Any paper race form explains the meaning of the terms t,d,and c, I think, quite clearly.

FLE 81 won $6.00

My last word on this subject so you can relax.

Midas

Its pretty simple and standard everywhere.

D= won at this distance at another track
T= won at this track but at a different distance
C= won at this track at this distance.
W= won on a wet track (any distance, any track).

You can have horses which show DTCW. or any combination of those 4 letters.

That's the way I'm reading it

Kenjorwood (Caulfield) looks to be the only qualifier yesterday
Winner R7

Doomben, 18 Jan, R6 Sentimental Prince

Good win here, got through at the right time and kicked away.

Ascot, 28 Jan, R2 Dainty Tess

Held on to win here. You're doing well with the picks.

Counter Pulse
Karacatis
Both winners Morphettville Saturday

Flemington, 11 Mar, R7 Terravista

And another
Rosehill R2 Dothraki

Rosehill R1 Allergic

Delicate Miss looks like a qualifier
R3 Ascot Saturday

Flemington, 10 June, R4 De Little Engine

Alas, scratched. Did look a strong chance.

wonder why?
the money was coming for De Little Engine to make it a hat-trick of wins at Flemington

Ben Thompson was wondering as well
Was to be one of his best rides
Still, one door closes another door opens
Got the late ride on Falago in the same race
Got the bickies 20/1

Belmont, 8 July, R5 Rosewood Hill

Caulfield, 15 July, R4 Kiwia

have always wondered if the strike-rate for top weights is lower on wet tracks as compared to dry?

well wonder no more :

Good Tracks: Loss of 2.2% and 14.98% Strike Rate (16515 selections)
Wet Tracks : Profit of 5.8% and 14.81% Strike Rate (7379 selections)

Used Aus tracks only as Wet is very different in different countries.

So there you go top weights in the wet actually produce a profit because like you most people percieve the wet track hurts them but in reality its only a 0.2% difference of 1 - 2 horses per 1000 top weights which lose compared to the dry tracks.

But hey keep it a secret ... don't want others knowing these important stats.

Betfair SP prices used for analysis.

Temps Voleur looks like a qualifier
R3 Morphettville today

Jetoomy looks like a qualifier
R8 Belmont today
Same meeting,,Atlanta Blue,,equal topweight

Royal Symphony looks like a qualifier
R2 Flemington today

I Am a Star looks like a qualifier
R6 Flemington today

Almandin looks like a qualifier
R8 Flemington today

Winner,,Jetoomy (Perth) also won
And some others,,but weren't handicaps

Winner,,Cashed (Adelaide)

Bay Road,,winner Morphettville Sat,,looks like he qualified

Showing a profit with a similar system but I don't bet those drawn middle to outside barriers on tracks better than dead