Each-Way?
 

The Lay D.S's Outsiders method has depressed me to such an extent that I've looked at an each-way method that has been floating around in my mind for some time but never looked at the results:

1) Default neurals,
2) Omit the CF, TIM and DLR algorithyms,
3) Include WT on a setting of 3,
4) Minimum of 8 starters,
5) Minimum of 140 neural points.

The results since Sunday are quite promising:

Sunday
19 selections for 10 winners paying $31.50
19 selections for 16 placegetters paying $21.60

Monday
4 selections for 1 winner paying $4.10
4 selections for 3 placegetters paying $5.00

Tuesday
8 selections for 4 winners paying $12.80
8 selections for 6 placegetters paying $9.30.

So over the past three days there's been 11 winners from the 31 selections for a UNITAB profit of $17.40 which is a strike rate of about 100% and a POT of about 56% .

Place betting has shown a 83% strike rate and a 15% POT.

Today there have so far been 9 selections for one winner of $2.40 and 5 placegetters for a return of $7.40.

The remaining selections are:

Ascot
4/3

Launceston
3/10
4/4
5/9
6/4

I might have been a little too hasty in listing the results of this new method.

Looking at all selections that had 160 (and not 140 as originally listed) points or more regardless of field size (except those races with four runners or less so that a Place divvy is paid) seems to have performed better over the three days. The results are:

Sunday
13 selections for 10 winners for a return of $25.30
11 placegetters for a return of $15.30

Monday
2 selections for 0 winners
2 placegetters for a return of $3.50.

Tuesday
5 selections for 3 winners for a return of $8.90
4 placegetters for a return of $6.10

Today:
So far there's been 3 selections for one winner of $2.40 and one placegetter of $1.30.

Still to run:
Launceston 5/9.

Over the 3 days there were 20 selections for 13 winners for a return of $34.20, and 17 placegetters for a return of $24.90.

The Win strike rate is 65% and the POT is 71%.
The Place strike rate is 85% and the POT is 51%.

Here is my take - not trying to be 'smart', just make sense of the numbers...

Winners - Detail:
13 selections for 10 winners for a return of $25.30
2 selections for 0 winners
5 selections for 3 winners for a return of $8.90
So far there's been 3 selections for one winner of $2.40

Winners - Summary:
23 selections and 14 winners => SR 61% and POT 59%

Placings - Detail:
11 placegetters for a return of $15.30
2 placegetters for a return of $3.50
4 placegetters for a return of $6.10
So far there's been... one placegetter of $1.30

Placings - Summary:
23 selections and 18 winners => SR 78% and POT 14%

Combined - Summary:
POT = 37%
Proof: 62.8-(2x23))/(2x26) = 0.3652

Hopefully one of us is correct or it'll have to be another g n t for me and I am already palming a large one here!

LG

PS Assumes $1 each way. Now I wonder what the overall POT would be with a $1 WIN / $4 stake... $1 and $6 anyone? Don't get me started!

PSS Should read:

Combined - Summary:
POT = 37%
Proof: (62.8-(2x23))/(2x26) = 0.3652

Cheers LG

Hi, L.G.

I didn't include today's results in the overall calcs...I should have mentioned it. I assume this is what you did?

I'm confused with your calcs in the Proof section. Having been educated in another country (Trinidad) our portrayal of maths is different to yours. For example, we didn't know (and probably still don't know) what "< " and ">" means. However we are cluey about the real important issues in life, such as how to hit sixes at cricket and score unbelievable goals at football, although Australia beat Trinidad at the only time they met.

Although I'm a Trinidadian deep down I will always support Oz at football whoever they play, but I might not have the same attitude when W.Indies play Oz at cricket.

=> (IN - OUT) / OUT = POT ?

I am sure there are much more important things in life than knowing what < and > is, although a little less of the bad things and more of the good, may come close?

LG

PS yup, added today's interim results but was kinda thrown by Post 1 where you mentioned a POT of 100%. Did my head in a bit, or was that the g n t ?

L.G. - sorry about the 100% error. I don't know how I missed it when I double-checked the posting, gotta be more careful.

I'll give the method a go today:

M.Valley
1/1
6/2

Albany
1/2

Seymour
4/10
6/1

Wyong
1/7
4/5

Rocky
3/4

I'm omitting "NTD" races, the divvies are too skinny.

From yesterday's 4 selections there were two winners returning $3.20 and three placegetters returning $4.20

Four selections today:

Moonee Valley
3/5

Ipswich
3/7

Lismore
4/5

Wangaratta
4/12

1 and 4 perhaps, Michael?

LG

Hi, L.G.

I'm not too sure what you reference to nos.1 and 4 means.

Hi Michael,

I think LG meant $1 the win and $4 the place given all 3 selections have placed and only 1 has saluted.

Not trying to speak on your behalf my Lordship but throwing out how I read it....

Cheers

Doc

Well there you go, silly me, thought LG was tipping nos. 1 & 4 in Moonee Valley R3, the only race still to run when the Lord made his post :rolleyes:

Hi, Grizzle.

That was my first thought too.

Nos.1 and 4 we're unplaced whilst our selection no.5 ran second paying $1.70 for the Place.

All four selections placed for a profit of $1.80 but lost $2.10 for the Win.

It's much too early to tell but Place betting looks promising.

Was to the WIN and PLACE stake.

Now that the end of the world is no longer nigh, and that the Mayans were alluding to the end of a calendar age / beginning of another etc perhaps this is a time for men of optimism.

Will you join me in this quest, michaelg?

LG

PS e.g. even if you have the makings of a fine place system here, we still allocate 1 unit to the WIN as a bonus?

Christmas greetings
 

Michaelg, you have again found a promising twist in the Neurals story. On behalf of all Forum members, many thanks for all the interesting and insightful analysis over 2012. I particularly liked the combination of CP and $ that you used earlier in the year. I find this a good indication of class, and am having a lot of fun with it in Ratings/BM races still.
Have a great Christmas, and good punting.
Jackact

L.G. I am a pessimist but let's hope there is now a new age which generates optimism.

Thanks, Jackact, for your very kind words and best wishes for Christmas. I wish you too, and everyone a merry and safe X'mas.

Today's selections:

Flemington
2/6
4/1
7/1
8/3

Dombeen
2/1
6/3

Morphetville
3/3

Ascot
3/7
5/4
6/2

Hobart
3/4
6/1
7/3

Moree
2/7

From the seven selections run so far only one has placed - unbelievable!

That's odd, given previous results to date

From my perspective, can confirm that results so far at Flemington are in line with my sBs system, except for the $25 longshot in R4.

LG

I get 1, 5 and 7 in R7

LG

MR7
F4 = 4* 5* 1* 7

4 didn't make the cut for sBs but snuck in for its long haired cousin: sLs

sBs 1 5 7
sLs 1 4 5 7 9

LG

PS Sorry to take thread off track, michaelg - was checking further into whether Flemington was throwing up outliers today... not as yet (except R4)

Just read newspaper account of the stallion Beltrois (see above) which crashed to the turf after winning the 4th at Flemington today with a broken shoulder and was then 'euthanised on the course'. Chilling words and a terrible story..

Another sad element to the article I feel was that the headline focussed on the jockey's fall, rather than mentioning that the poor horse had paid the ultimate price for winning against the odds (with its life).

That's racing I guess, but helps us to remember that the very core of the sport is made up of flesh and bone (rather than numbers, stats etc) and 4 legged beasts which can break the hearts of trainers, jockeys, owners, stable hands etc

LG


PS As it happens, I feel a bit sad that I had recorded the result of the race from a computer screen as merely an 'outlier statistic' at the time, without having watched the race or known much about the 'ultimate outcome'

Yes, it can be a cold and heartless sport where money is the priority.

Yesterday was a terrible day for the method. From the 14 selections there were two winners for a loss of $6.40, and 6 placegetters for a loss of $3.40 - again, money is the priority.

Not just the money, michaelg.

Words and statistics flashed up on a screen and then recorded vrs flesh and bone hitting hard turf, and then silenced. Get your drift however.

LG

PS On a brighter note.. you have so many good systems running at the moment, might have to start charting them to observe the ebbs and flows

Hi, L.G.

Hopefully today will be a better day than yesterday - it can't be much worse.

Ballarat
3/8
4/7
6/8

Sun Coast
3/7
5/1

Port Lincoln
5/5
6/1
7/1

Queanbeyan
1/6
4/7
5/8

Taree
1/2
6/10

I again typed the wrong horse - it should have read Queanbeyan 1/1 and not 1/6. No.6 won paying $8.10 and $3.00, and no.1 placed for a divvy of $1.70 which I shall not credit the method..

From the 12 genuine selections nine of them placed for a profit of $0.10. I'm not even looking at the Win results.

No selections today.

However I've been looking at another Place method where's there's much more action:

1) Must be the outright top BRR selection on the R & S worksheet.
2) It must also be the outright fave in the D.S. market.

The Unitab results since last Friday are:

Friday - 9 placegetters from 15 selections for a loss of $0.70
Saturday - 10 placegetters from 20 selections for a profit of $1.10
Sunday - 17 placegetters from 22 selections for a profit of $9.70.

Over the three days there has been 33 Placegetters from 57 selections for a profit of $10.10.

Today - there have been 8 from today's 9 selections already run for 7 placegetters for a brilliant return of $16.20. There is only one more selection to run - it is Sale R8 no.7, which is poorly rated on Unitab.

I've looked at tomorrow's selections for the BRR and D.S method because it can be time-consuming and I'm usually pressed for time on Saturdays/public holidays. They are:

Caulfield
2/1
7/10

Rosehill
7/8

Eagle Farm
1/4
4/12
5/4
7/8

Morphetville
3/9
4/9

Albany
3/2
4/5

Devenport
6/2

Geelong
3/1
4/5
7/5

Newcastle
6/6
7/6

Pinjarra
1/5

Ballina
1/3
2/8
4/3
5/1

Esperance
5/2
7/5

Wodonga
2/1


25 selections.


A safe and Merry Christmas, everyone

From the 20 selections there were 13 placegetters for a return of $21.30.

Today's selections:

Geraldton
1/5
4/7
5/4
6/4
7/3

Gosford
6/2
7/2

Mornington
1/4
2/3
3/2
4/5
5/2
6/11

Rocky
2/8
3/5
8/1