Are YOU the perfect lay system?!
 

Hi Team,

On my recent quest to find solid placegetters, one thing that struck me was that when I did what normal (consensus) logic dictated, my results were poor.

HOWEVER, when I discarded my top ratings picks for those that were in the market, however not selected by any ratings system, I had a string of crazy (GOOD) results.

THUS, my findings were that follow the norm (look for TC winners, won distance, won 2nd up etc) and you are doomed to fail. As everyone is following the same path.

Any thoughts on this? Can we create the 'ANTI-SYSTEM'??!!!

You have one in the Ripsnorter Lay System.

Cheers

Forgotten how many times I've posted exactly the same context TS?? Call it contrarian, anti-logic....whatever...you've got to be doing the opposite to 97% of the punting population.

I have two betting approaches I use at the moment based on ratings that are highly profitable. The following is an explanation of why (my reasoning at least) they are profitable in line with what you and others have suggested either regards to being contrarian.

I have ratings which I put together myself which are based on combining a few different ratings for a 'ratings of ratings' if you will plus some other factors i calculate myself for a final rating. It's pretty much a consensus rating of which you'd expect is overbet and not useful however using 3 filters the top rater is quite profitable:

- I only bet if my own speed rating is in a certain range (not contrarian just found this to be profitable)
- I only bet fields of 8 to 14 runners (not contrarian just improves the results/strike rate)
- final filters is my contrarian filter and all i'll say is it has to do with the horses last win. That should possibly be a big enough hint in itself, but it has been the filter thats tipped me in the right direction.

That's all i'll say for now, but it definitely pays to be contrarian. You don't necessarily have to be contrarian to the actual ratings, but possibly just contrarian with 1 or more filters once you have those ratings.

I honestly feel like I can make a consistent profit over the long-term these days, even though its only early for me. If I managed to get a bot in place that automated my selections and only bet overlays then i'd be even further infront but i'm not at that point yet.

Have been contrarian for years.
Works for me.

Its not as clear cut as being contrarian.

If it was then backing the longshots (horses people don't want to be on) would return more than backing the favourites and that is just not the case. It is in fact the opposite as you lose less as a percentage backing favourites then you do backing long shots.

That's why majority of my bets are <$15.00 and are my top rater, but the filter I use is the contrarian part if that makes sense. Then as per garyf's type posts it comes down to race filters for me.

I ran a test along the similar lines years ago. Pretty much targeting the horses that most people would look at as top contenders, and laying them.

No idea if it still works, but could be good food for thought for some one new to the game.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=19541

Hi Team,

Some nice replies.

RP - love your kooky thinking, sure to pay divi's long-term!

Evajb - you've been a man on a mission for the best part of the last few years and deserve every success!

UB - Opposite for opposites sake, will not guarantee success

Thorns - Cheers for the thread link, got the old grey matter going. The API and No.1 lay systems went 12/12 successes today. Could still be some gold in them there hills!

Which brings us to a system to trial......

----------------------------------------------------------
'The Matt Dillon'

Horse no.1
9+ runners
Must have won a race
Unplaced last start
Must be in the outside 3 barriers
Starting Price $3-21

Today
WARRNAMBOOL
8 - 1 Majestic Duke WON $8.7

WARWICK FARM
8 - 1 UNPL $17.6

MURRAY BRIDGE
5-1 Bold Zamour UNPL $18.8
7-1 Power to Possess UNPL $24.5 ($21 fixed)

PINJARRA
5-1 I'm a Bluebagger UNPL $3.6

OUT 5 IN 8.7 +3.7 1/5

The bottom of the barrel system
 

Neural Settings CP 3, TIM 2, CRS 3, $ 3, D 3, All others at 0
No maidens
Take lowest rated horse on neurals
Horse must have won at T or C
Max Fixed price Tatts $51

Today
WARWICK FARM
6-12 Lucky Lago C UNPL $4.2

WARRNAMBOOL
7-17 Royal Island C WON $27

PINJARRA
7-14 Minimalist T WON $37.60

OUT 3 IN 64.9 PL +61.9 SR 1/3

If that's the bottom I look forward to those further up the barrel.

Good to know. Maybe I should dust the saddle off and get back on the horse!

Not a bad start for a system hey Speedy!! ha ha

Wonder if it will keep on kicking on?!!........ :D

Bottom of the Barrel selections

ALBANY
1-2 Zipabout C $2.5
7-8 Barely a Cabernet T $51

WARRNAMBOOL
10-9 Mango Mojito T $35

ROCKY
4-6 Cherishthethought T $26
6-10 Eldoshar T $41
7-12 Lalita T $51

------------------------------------------

'The Matt Dillon'
No selections

No Joy!!
 

Back to the drawing board today, with one 2nd placing from 6 starters.

Only 2 horses actually stared <=$51.

So far in testing there's been two <=$5 runners for 0/2. Could be prudent to watch moving forward.

ALBANY
1-2 Zipabout C $2.5
7-8 Barely a Cabernet T $51 (started $61)

WARRNAMBOOL
10-9 Mango Mojito T $35 (started $51)

ROCKY
4-6 Cherishthethought T $26 (started $61)
6-10 Eldoshar T $41 (started $71)
7-12 Lalita T $51 (started $81)

I'm an absolute novice
 

Can you explain what these settings are? Is it some sort of software setting?

Hi Columbus

Looks like your new to punting and this forum so welcome. Not wanting to digress from this threads discussion I would like to make a few suggestions.

There are a number of author's that have published lots of still relevant material that I would consider at the least worthwhile but for me and my learning over the years they were essential learning. I suggest that you get your hands on and research as much as you can given any time and/or budget constraints. That research could also include threads on this forum. Firstly though I suggest that you familiarise yourself with the basics. You can Google any of the following names.

Andy Beyer, Howard Sartin and Tom Brohammer are worthwhile though you will need modify many of their teachings to suit Australian racing. Paul Segar and of course the likes of Rem Plante / Don Scott publications that are still fundamentally relevant however the measurements that they use and reference with regards to matters like weight are very much based on a straight linear approach of a certain amount of kg per length which I do not agree with. The combination of learning that can be gleamed from these books/publications will more than provide you with the necessary foundations to be able to make a go of it if you are dedicated enough. Separately there are other articles/podcasts than you can source from sites like ours that might better deal with some of the practical issues that you can face as a form analyst/punter.

Best of luck.

Hi Columbus.
The Neural settings can be accessed at "racing and sports.com.au"

1/Click on Form

2/ Click on Ratings

3/Click on Full Form Coverage

4 / Click on 1st symbol (wheel)

Welcome to the Forum.

Have fun.
darky

Ps.The recommendations by Paul are spot on.

Columbus, before you race off to read all those books, just do one thing first? Read the results page for any races held yesterday. I'll save you the trouble, this plot shows the prices of the winners and placegetters over the last 24 hrs in AUS, UK & IRE gallops.

Anything from $1.60 to $400.

"But that's not logical coz I read all those books, it should have been the road map to success, right?" Wrong!

This little exercise has proven, that there's nothing 'LOGICAL' about horse Racing/ Dogs/ Harness.

Start thinking reverse logic, coz hardly anyone is, and you'll succeed.