David Walsh.. the Wizzard of Odds?
 

Kicking back with a glass of red & copy of the BRW Rich 200 rich list here.
which is the only edition I buy for the year and probably explains why i'm not on it (yet!)

Honorable mention in this year's list must go to David Walsh. While his estimated wealth falls short of the $210m cut-off... Walsh has so overtly used a fortune accrued from wagering to build a temple of art.. the country's largest private museum.. a $175m project on the banks of the Derwent.

Walsh ~ "I invent a gambling system, make a money mine. Turns out, it aint so great getting rich using someone else's idea... What to do? Better build a museum, make myself famous. That will get the chicks"

If he aint Nash - he knows Nash.

Who is he and/or who does he know - this 'Wizzard of Odds' ?


Cheers LG

darkydog2002 obviously.

:D

Eh?

Chortle!

Could be, how would we know?

LG

David Walsh was one of the group of Tassie uni mates with Zeljko Ranogajec who built a fortune together from their gambling efforts.

Amazing how far TAB kickbacks can take you;)

That's it norisk. To be a winner you have to beat the tax, just like in big business.

I read an article on him and got the impression he uses the DS method (he says in the article he uses a well known method that is widely available and many books and articles have been written about it) but with small returns and large turnover, and of course TAB discounts. In other words the small punters pay for his profits.

In the early days, when this uni pack were just starting to compound their bankroll, the TAB actually tried to close them out.

They occupied a townhouse on the road that leads to the casino which the locals termed 'the bunker'. It was heavily fortified and contained a lot of high powered computers churning the numbers faster than the TAB's computers.

Their response to the TAB's efforts to shut them down was "Do you want us to take 0.05% of your turn-over or only 0.00025%?" The TAB soon got the message and accepted this group for the liquidity it injected into TAB's markets to the attraction of the rest of the punters.

Whilst I don't know what their system was, I expect it was relatively simple as they went on to apply it to virtually every casino in the world (as they were banned and had to keep moving to the next casino!). They couldn't have taken their computers to the casino's so I assume their winning method was simple enough to be applied manually.

We could be synical towards these guys due to the hand-outs they've received but I take inspiration from them that a simple winning system is within my grasp... I just have to find it!

Yep, they had to start somewhere so obviously had enough smarts to get the ball rolling & beat the system, so kudos for that.

There would have been multiple 'nash-types' in that syndicate I am thinking.

Possible equivalent to 'Quants' on the trading floor - basically a very slick walking talking maths box and not a lot of personality (until one gets them out for a pint and a curry and other naughty stuff.. whey-heeey, you boys ARE human!!)

LG

The Ocho/Lord Greystoke.
Keep it quiet I dont want everyone to know its me.

"erry ,Uncle Dick and I have changed the syndicates name to the "Legless Louts"

No doubt you,ll hear more of us over the coming months.

Maybe the place to start is when someone tells you this is a random event(s)(Keno/Lotto), then test it and check it's veracity. Lotto has moved to two computers with random generator algorithms, to make the draws more random?

Imagine if you had a belief they were random and you set out to copy the algorithms.

Number clusters huh.... starting to look like another dog's brekkie but where to start?

Have been meaning to ask you - have you got a tool for regression a. that is simply to use? A bit like your Chi test example?

LG

Anything but number clusters, the algorithms are prescribed to be random, but how the code is written makes it random alright but across all the spaces.

Imagine we had a draw in Keno 80 numbers and 20 will be drawn, the algorithm dictates that the next game numbers drawn will comprise of 25% from each space(25% of the first 20 drawn, 25% of the remaining 60 numbers) of course with some variation, so my next game I can try an select 25% out of 20 numbers instead, of 5 out of 80 if you can understand.

In Lotto 6 numbers are drawn, if we say Ball 1 is the lowest number drawn of the six numbers, what would you think is the highest number drawn for this Ball 1?
Anyone can download the results of these games an test the above

Sorry woof43 - I get some of this but not all of it. Can you elaborate with an example?

Much appreciated.

LG

In Lotto imagine we place the 6 balls that are drawn, in an order from Lowest number to highest number drawn in each game
Example in Lotto Game 3136
The numbers in numerical order are as follows;
3 18 20 21 44 45


Result for the Last 100 Games
# Ball1 Ball 1%
1 15 15
2 6 21
3 9 30
4 9 39
5 11 50
6 4 54
7 9 63
8 4 67
9 5 72
10 2 74
11 4 78
12 4 82
13 4 86
14 1 87
15 1 88
16 2 90
17 4 94
18 0 94
19 3 97
20 2 99
21 0 99
22 1 100
Now as you can see 22 has been the highest number drawn for Ball 1, in the last 100 games you can see above #1 has been drawn 15 times and comprises 15% of the Ball #1 space, if you were to take #1 to #5 50% of the games any one of those 5 numbers has been drawn, or I take 1 to 22 and I know that 1 will have at least 1 number drawn out of 6 balls.

The Median # is #6 and the Mode is #1, with the game being random the Mode should move about and it does,in the above case it is going to move towards the Median #6 as it can't go any lower.

But the main point is if you understand the impact of #23 on the permutations now required to select 6 balls correctly in such what some people will call a negative expectation game, you'll make giant steps in understanding how construct wagers correctly in the racing

Now the reverse for the drop 6
# drop 6 drop 6cum%
24 1 100
25 0 99
26 2 99
27 0 97
28 3 97
29 0 94
30 2 94
31 3 92
32 1 89
33 6 88
34 0 82
35 2 82
36 5 80
37 2 75
38 5 73
39 3 68
40 6 65
41 10 59
42 11 49
43 12 38
44 16 26
45 10 10
100
Again see what happens, now play 1-5 and 40-45 its not too hard to work out, what my probability is for having now selected 2 numbers out of 6 balls.But what was supposed to be my probabilities for being able to select 2 balls?

Fascinating stuff woof43.

This would suggest that one is able to observe the algorythm at work.

Which might then mean that a predictive model of some kind is possible, construction of strategic wagering to follow etc

Assuming I am on the right track here and historical draws readily available, what might be the engine and testing tools required to run that model?

LG

exactly right your not out to find a bias as one would think but to find how the random generator algorithm is set.
Excel analysis tools will set you in the right direction

To understand where the other 4 numbers will be drawn, you will need to look back at my post on Keno the keno algorithm is taking numbers 25% randomly from each space.
game 1 80 numbers 20 drawn 25%
next game will consist of 20 drawn numbers x 25% -60 remaining X 25% , then game three things become interesting, this is where you have to think about the spaces where 25% will come from numbers repeating , numbers not drawn etc etc just think outside of the square.

As with Lotto in Keno you find what are the median and mode for the Lo -Hi numbers then you have two numbers in 50% of the draws, its a matter of using the above paragraph information to formulate your next numbers

Seeing it a bit clearer now.

What might be a realistic mix of...

1. objective analysis (xl)
2. subjective(fuzzy logic - guesswork)

Sample set / size to start with?

LG

Is P foster on that list.?

Why do you ask (or shouldn't I ask)??

LG

probs safer not to lg