To Barny
 

Barny, I can't recall the author but Sportznut springs to mind. You have already mentioned it amongst a host of other systems. It was an outsider plan where the total of the last 3 starts had to add up to 18 or more with a couple of filters added. Something like that. You will recall it immediately I'm sure. A very long thread. I found it most successful using TAB #1-5.

FYI Barny I have read and re-read the threads on this forum over and over and over again so please don't tell me to do some research or that there are profitable systems (even with, added filters) because I sure can't find one. Admittedly some systems appear viable when posted but by the end of the thread ..... you know the answer to that. There were some great contributors in the early years. Most have long departed. It's not hard to see the reason why.

You asked me for the above information which I have given you, now please point me in the direction to a profitable long term system presented on this forum.


Sorry LG, TO, Speedy and cosmos. Management closed the thread before I could reply to you.

In my opinion (and in response to the other thread really), most of us on this "systems" forum are trying our own systems all the time. We come here to see if there is something that we can use or tweak.

Most of us don't list the system here for fear that it may actually work and, therefore, be stolen by someone who will publish it which then turns a profitable system into just another unprofitable system as the prices will come in on a backing system and go out on a laying system.

Of course I would like to see systems mentioned here as much as possible but, IMHO, I think the reason is as above. Also the forum curse usually strikes first day even when you have trialed it for weeks. So embarrassment may also be an issue.

That's what I think anyway.

very true TO, my last pitiful effort bought the forum curse to life quick smart :o

Spot on TO.
Mark is a classic example. He makes a living off the punt but the few times he has started a thread with the selections it seems to go belly up on him.

Don't be fooled Jose, I had an average Saturday win using the method I outlined in detail on here some time age, which wins day after day after day. It more than made up for the small loss from my posted lays.

I remember Mark's selection method with an in-built staking plan.
Infact i have a copy of that thread somewhere.
Then yes, it went belly up for a while. Among other things, it got it's own members only forum.
And it even got dedicated programmers having a field day to. Where are they now ?!!

The best part is, it's portable, meaning i can use it anywhere and no computers internet required.

Again, thank you Mark.

Sometimes the simplest things are missed.
One programmer i do have respect for said this,
"We get so hung up on minute details, we then miss the obvious".

I didn't mean to single you out Mark, sorry.
I know you make a living of the punt, but the old forum curse seems to get 'em eevry time.
That method you mention, is that the "Race 5 onwards laying the first fav for a set amount, and then the 2nd and 3rd fav to break square' one?
Understand if you don't want to answer that too.

I haven't "got" this forum curse everyone keeps propping up, what's this "forum curse" ?

Don't know if you are serious or not Puntz, so the benefit of the doubt goes to you.
The "Forum Curse" is what happens when you put a method/system up publicly and it the proceeds to self destruct in full public view. Usually after having worked for ages beforehand, and more than likely to work forever after.

Hope this helps.

Bernie, that was the longshot method by punter57. A brilliant read but I couldn't get it in to profit, didn't try too hard at the time tho'.

Here's a start Bernie. This was on page 3 of 807 pages I have.

from bhagwan .....

Here’s a plan that has been tested over 4.5 years.
Some people may say that systems cant win, I say they can if tested over a min of 4+ years using some logic as a basis. E.G. A recurring factor is that 20% of last start winners end up winning again.

I laugh when people ask for a winning plan & when it’s presented to them , they usually say, "I’m not going to do all that, can’t you do it for me, & while your at it ,lay the bets also".
I say, then get a computer program, "I’m not going to fork out that sort of money".
They want to make money but don’t want to do anything towards it when presented.
Right, we are back to square one then, & so it goes.

I did this on my TRB-GTX program.
32% POT
23% SR
27 Longest Outs
1300 Bets
7 Days a week.

The LS in 26 days rule & the No Mares or Horses & no Slow tracks, proved to be very significant rules.
Also one will note that duel last wins were deleted, these managed a small profit, indicating that they are overbet & were not good value, their SR was 2 points less than the others.

LAST START WINNER PLAN
RACE RULES:
include if Field Size between 5 and 15
exclude if Going = Slow

HORSE RULES:
include if TAB No. between 2 and 15
( TAB No.1 showed a loss because of low divs. which means they are over bet to their true chance of winning)
include if Age between 2 and 6
include if Sex = Filly, Colt, Gelding, Rig (leaving out Mares & Horses)

HORSE RATING RULES:
include if Morning Line between $2.9 and $15.0
include if Trakform Rank = 1 (This can be any other handicapping top selection, this is one of 4 that I have)
include if Morning Line Rank between 2 and 7

HORSE STATISTICS RULES:
include if Career Starts between 2 and 40

HORSE FORM RULES RUN #1 Last Run
include if Days Ago between 1 and 26

HORSE FORM RULES RUN #2nd Last Run:
include if Fin Pos between 2 and 12

Don't remember going belly up Puntz, I haven't had a losing month since Betfair started.

Barny, that is only one system right? If so I'll just have to accept your word that it is a winning one and has passed the test of time. Vortech may or may not be able to confirm your findings?

Anyway, to me it is just a load of back fitted jargon. From my experience the less rules a system has the more likely it is show the least loss on turnover. I would rather place my trust in michaelg than in you Barny. Sorry.

OK Bernie, I just posted a "first up" system, read your post and immediately deleted it. It was showing a POT of 43.41% and could have been verified by anyone with a database. You are your own worst enemy Bernie.

"We has met the enemy and it is us" Pogo

You're in strife if you're relying on someone other than yourself Bernie .....

Mark, maybe my choice of terminology is wrong, no it did not literally go belly-up, but i did notice i was being noticed by some bookies back then at Chelttenham.
They don't who i am though, dots don't join up, ya see.
I had to to "hide" at times. They were messing with them odds for a while, that's when i tried it at the farm.
That's what i meant.

I'll never forget the day when outsiders were dodging a patch, favs were stuck on the rail.
10/1 thankyou very richly.
That's when the pre-poster may not work, common sense.

So yes, as I thought still nothing positive from you. You are runing true to form.

I didn't say I would follow any system of michaelg's, I said I would trust him more than you.

I can honestly say I don't get it Bernie. bhagwans system was the first one I came to on one of two files I have and all I did was post what bhagwan posted. Immediately after I posted bhagwan's system I actually decided to post one of my own systems, something I said I'd never do for obvious reasons, but I did. I posted it, then I saw your scathing post towards me so I went back and edited it, and deleted the system. It was actually a very good system. I was more than happy to help you out and prove that there are winning systems Bernie, and I looked forward to Vortech's system thread where I could add a lot of the original commentary from posters on here to the systems Vortech has plucked from here, and I was also going to post some sytems that Vortech may have missed. And my summary of the Pareto thread, among others. But not now, not with you lurking Bernie, ready to pounce.

I just don't get it, I acknowledged the longshot system you mentioned in your first post on this thread, everything was amicable, then I copy and paste a system from bhagwan, and you throw insults. You're probs doing some a favour here hounding me off the site Bernie.

For all those punters who have access to Saturday Melbourne Herald Sun and bet on the Saturday Melbourne races.
If you backed all horses listed at <$10 in the pre-post market you would have made 3.1% POT since 18th February 2012 upto yesterday 10th March 2013.

There were

1933 bets
342 winners
17.7% S/R
59.60 unit profit
3.1% POT is based on getting either Top Fluccuation or best of the 3 totes - very achievable in today's market.

With some choice rules it is possible to significantly improve the profit and %POT.

Bravo T2.

LG

Time for a little light humour, Try Try (No 2)??

Clips 1 and 4 I presume

Cheers LG

The Pre-Post market, FRIDAYS paper, was the cornerstone of the Pareto thread by Privateer. It was either his No. 1 or No. 2 order of merit, ie; recurring factor, the other vying for top Spot was Fitness. His range was $3.50 to $11.00 but saying that, he never bet on the favourite. Sort of backs up your findings Try Try Again.

Hey Barny, are you saying that Bhagwan's system is a long term profitable system? Meaning that using those rules, it would still have a positive POT if used up until today?

If so, are you using it?

Gee, the mozzies are bad this time of year ...... SWOT !!!!!!!!!, that's better ;)

What sort of response is that to a sensible question?

The real key to system development is not be able to find a profitable system but more to find a system that will continue into the future.

The period of testing is irrelevant. It needs to be based on the winners you have found. If the winners are paying a higher dividend you need more winners to be more confident.

The research was to find around 200 profitable systems and then to apply several testing methods to see which of the profitable systems would continue into the future.

I now apply 4 tests to the profitable systems. If they get all the ticks I start to bet on them. All the methods have been discussed on this forum. Many posters said you needed some logic behind your rules. This might be true but everyone knows what is logically and this is overbet. Most systems that are profitable are due to a long-shot winner during the period of testing. Systems that will continue to win also should be very close to making a profit for the Place bet too.

But the Archie Score method is the best! Anything over a score of 7 continues to make you money if it has been in profit during your test period. It doesn't mean a profit everyday or even month it does continue.

I have one system I will share minus a couple of filters as I use this sytem with great success. Probably get slammed but here goes.

Every day apart from Saturday
Country and Prov tracks only
Age: 2 - 10
Barrier 1 - 14
Days LS .......
LS Finish .......
Won @ Course


Results
1830 Bets
241 Wins
Profit: $752.00 on NSW TAB

Profit every year since 2000.

I put this system up as I know with the low strike rate is won't be followed by many users but it give those an idea of my methodologies.

The above is why I won't respond to you anymore. You're just setting me up for more of your vitroil. Don't hound me over at Vortech's Propun Systems thread ..... I intend to post all the systems I have provided the thread has legs.

Agree 100% with that Vortech. Also a test to see if there's consistent results between Vic and NSW is a strong indicator too, there can be wild variances between the two states. Should this post of yours be in your newly created thread?

G'day Barny.

I still use the Friday newspaper for my price base!

Cheers

Privateer

Criterion