Super 15 week 2
 

Now we'll have 7 matches after the short week one of 2 South Africa matches. My odds make it seem like the bookies are looking over my shoulder. Most odds of my from both weeks are very close to the bookies odds.

Remember to be very cautious for the first four weeks while ratings adjust.

Cheers,

Ray

They're looking to expand Super Rugby to a 17 sides tournament.
Adding a sixth South African team & a team from Argentina.
The new structure will require approval from the Unions of each country.
Should be interesting to see how Australia & NZ vote.

S15
Crusaders up against Chiefs
Taking Crusaders

S15
Crusaders up against Chiefs
Taking Chiefs +12.5 handicap

French Top 14


ASM Clermont Auvergne v Montpellier

S15
Waratahs up against Force
Taking Waratahs

Aviva Premiership
Saracens up against Exeter Chiefs
Taking Saracens

Aviva Premiership
Newcastle Falcons up against Northampton Saints
Taking Northampton Saints

current market - Super Rugby Winner
 

Chiefs 4.25
Sharks 5.00
Waratahs 5.00
Crusaders 6.00
Reds 10.00
Brumbies 15.00
Stormers 15.00
Blues 21.00
Highlanders 29.00
Cheetahs 29.00
Hurricanes 41.00
Bulls 67.00
Lions 101.00
Rebels 101.00
Force 251.00

Super 15 Week 3
 

To say the least, the season has been off to an odd start. There have been 6 upsets in 9 matches, twice as many as usual. My system makes it's largest adjustments in the first weeks to compensate for changes in team strength compared to last season. Every week, the teams have to defend their ratings. In the next two weeks, those adjustments will either prove to be correct or they will readjust. Be cautious betting for Weeks 3 and 4 while we find out if the upsets were due to bad luck or maybe those favoutites just aren't that good this season.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray.

At your leisure, any comment regarding the proposed expansion, Ray?

Thanks for the question. I agree with Dave Rennie that expanding will dilute Super Rugby talent. Look at it this way. There are 15 Super rugby teams based on a population of about 78 million among the three nations. The USA National Football League has 32 teams, about twice as many but drawn from a population that is 4 times as many.

Super Rugby has travel under control with three confereces. Half the matches are in the same country. I notice that home advantage has dropped for domestic matches. I think that's because teams are much less fatigued. That makes for a better quality of play Travel whould get much worse by adding Argentina. The competition has been SANZAR and has done well that way. If it isn't broken, don't fix it.

Even with 318 million people, past American footbal, soccer and women's basketball leagues have gone under for expanding too fast. I hope they don't ruin Super Rugby teh same way. I'm not against progress. Maybe as time goes on, the time will come to expand. Let's stick to Super 15 and get that right.

S15
Blues up against Crusaders
Taking Crusaders

S15
Rebels up against Cheetahs
Taking Cheetahs

S15
Rebels up against Cheetahs
Taking Rebels +12.5 handicap

S15
Chiefs up against Highlanders
Taking Chiefs

S15
Waratahs up against Reds
Taking Reds +12.5 handicap

Aviva Premiership
Harlequin FC up against Worcester Warriors
Taking Harlequin FC

Aviva Premiership
Northampton Saints up against Gloucester Rugby
Taking Northampton Saints

Aviva Premiership
Exeter Chiefs up against London Irish
Taking Exeter Chiefs

Aviva Premiership
Newcastle Falcons up against Leicester Tigers
Taking Leicester Tigers

Pro12
Scarlets up against Munster
Taking Munster

Pro12
Leinster Lions up against Glasgow Warriors
Taking Leinster Lions

S15
Bulls up against Lions
Taking Bulls

Super 15 Week 4
 

Five of my seven favourites won so the ratings have adjusted pretty well. We'll see what happens on Week 4 (more like Week 3.5). I always caution to bet very conservatively for the first four weeks while the rating system adjusts for this season' strengths.

Good luck,

Ray

Australia 50:20

England 31:12

Scotland 42:17

South Africa 24:15

Ireland 40:9

NZ 26:19

NZ 30:22

Wales 40:6

South Africa 28:0

Gloucester 20:3

NZ 24:22

Try 25 min

Wales 17:7

Sale 26:10