Always Moonee V 2nite X. Although callin it a day does sound appealing.

Greg Ryan is absolutely flying at the moment. Might just follow him from now on.

Wallarah Boy X?

Yeah, good old Greg Ryan. :)

Have to pick out the right races though. In my opinion, the best two betting races at Mudgee today were the last two races, so they were the ones I bet on. I often back Ryan in country cups and I almost always back him in the last race of the day. In any case, Paper Boy and Shepishir were my top picks in those races, so two from two there today.

Gday Mad

yeah I gave it a good chance .... it managed 3rd I think

Stix Roughies
 

Having a "crack" at a few roughies.... (Can't seem to pick my nose today - let alone a winner - so might as well try and tip those that would normally beat my tip ! )

(Selection in brackets (my 'usual slecetions")..... lay the crap out of them.... LOL !

Moonee Valley
R5 - 9 Cultural Revolution (C Williams) (1) bet 1 x 4 units
R6 - 5 Ellenbank (B Melham(A)) (3) bet 1 x 3 units
R7 - 5 Ella Noir (M Guthrie (A)) (1) bet 1 x 4 units
R8 - 6 Danaman (B Cross) (8) bet 1 x 5 units

Good Luck People.....

Gday Mad
You have to be prepared to take the shorts.. he IS the best jockey in the land IMHO, and so most of his mounts are overbet, tho every now and then he will ride one at a price...and I think if you back him every ride, every day you will lose, maybe not a lot but a bit... But if like some, you have the knack
(ESP maybe) and can root out his duds you might do ok.. but I am not so sure.. he usually has a full book so that means you need to make 7 or 8 units each meeting b4 you go into profit and the money usually says he is on a good chance... How you root out the duds is totally beyond me, and in reality is probably beyond most mortals, those without extra powers anyway.

Take today for instance:
Mudgee
Race 1 he rode #4 which started at 7/2 and ran unplaced
Race 2 he rode #7 which started at 13/2 and again failed to place
Race 3 he rode #1 which started at $1.60 (FAV) and won (as it should have)
Race 4 he rode #11 which started at 6/1 and ran 3rd
Race 5 he rode #1 which started $2.6 FAV and failed to place
Race 6 he rode #6 which started at 7/2 and failed to place
Race 7 he rode #3 Paper Boy and started 3/1 FAV and won
Race 8 he rode #5 which started 3/1 FAV and Won
So a nice little profit made today... but he rode 3 FAVS to win.. But should they have been FAV.. that is my point with him.. His name makes em favs.

Now how anyone can honestly say that the horses that he rode that won, Shepishir and Paper Boy, other than the odds on pop, were good things are playing with themselves. How. out of those 8 races do you decide which ones are crap. The longest price horse he rode today was 6/1 . That tells me that most people thought all his rides had a good chance in all races..I cant see that you can consistently make money backing G Ryan, because his rides are usually pretty short.

His next outing is on Sunday at Cowra as best as I can see
Race 1/7 is probably a good thing probably odds on
Race 2/5 should be at decent odds, but wait n see
Race 3/2 has a good chance ran 2nd last 3 starts (imagine the price on this one)
Race 4/1 Will be short.. last start winner
Race 5 NO ride ... YET
Race 6/2 should be any price
Race 7/4 should be any price

Hope I am proven wrong.. but that is the way I see it

Apparently, I lied :(

Well, I was told we were spelling her, then coz she pulled up so well and was still looking for more, they kept her up.

Anyway, Barrier is perfect, Distance isnt completely beyond her, but the rosehill straight is a bit long and usually see's her get collared at the end.

Not sure on the riding tactics, but in this field, its worth including her in any exotics because she is the kind to upset them easy when its all against her. She loves the small fields and is going to get the perfect sit.

My only bet today will be as per the best advice I was ever given to save some money.. Only ever bet on your own horse, so I will have an large Each way in Syd R1: Lady Frisco!

XPT,

I assume that was aimed at me. I'm sorry, but you seem to have misunderstood me. I did not say that those two horses were 'good things' or even that they were his best two rides. I simply said that those two races were in my opinion clearly the best betting races of the day and that Greg Ryan's rides were my top picks in those races.

I like to cut down on the races I bet on. At Mudgee yesterday, I didn't even consider the first 4 races. I DID consider races 5 & 6, but in the end, I just wasn't as confident about those races as I was about races 7 & 8. I've said before that I like backing Ryan in country cups and in the last race of the day, so those were the first two races I looked at. If Ryan had been on some donkey with no chance, I wouldn't have backed him, but when I went through those races, Paper Boy and Shepishir came out on top and I was quite confident about them. I must point out however, that they were not my only bets. In R7, I also had a saver on Mister Daylight and in R8, I did likewise with Mia Amanda.

I certainly wouldn't advise anyone back Ryan in every single race. Going on the figures I've seen, I think you'd make a loss of about 15-20% or something like that. Paul Harvey and perhaps Darren Beadman are the only two top jockeys that you could back every time and have a chance of ending up in front. As for Sunday, I haven't looked at them yet, but if he's on a bunch of no-hopers or odds-on chances, then of course I won't be betting on them. As I said, you shouldn't just blindly bet on him without studying them first to see if he has a genuine chance.

Nah not specifically aimed at you... my point is that his rides are just about always in the market, and I am unable to see how anyone can distinguish which are good and which are not so good... other than using prices as a guide.. If you set a floor price of say 5$ for a Ryan ride you would have gone out backwards at Mudgee (assuming NSW TAB prices) Had you set $4 as your floor you may have shown a profit.. My point is that the winners he rode yesterday, were favs, as his rides are lots of times.. and we know backing favs sends us to the red ink..would it be fair to suggest that we back G Ryan on favs only? I wouldnt think so, because then you miss the odd good priced winner he rides.. and the mob can be wrong and are wrong 60% of the time.. he rode one at cessnock a couple of weeks ago at better than 16$ (from memory).

Again I say, it is very difficult to say which are his better rides of the day, because they are all good according to the mob. Shepishir is a case in question, I could not seperate it from Mia Amanda and the 4.. It won and Mia Amanda ran 2nd.. but in my opinion both were unders.. They should have been about 9/2 the field.. And yet you said it was a good betting race to back Ryan... when you are getting 9/2 (5.5) there is a fair amount of risk involved... I would have thought Pants Man was the horse to load up on if you were backing Ryan.. granted it was odds on, but it was close to a good thing as evidenced by the price.. and that it won..I dunno I might be wrong here..

The other bloke to back is Robbo (when he isnt having a holiday).. But when do you back him? He is probably the 2nd best jockey in the land... I would suggest maybe a Saturday at Kembla/Newcastle when he is riding for the top trainers, just a suggestion, forget Beadman, he is just about always on genuine winning chances, and still mangages to get knocked off every now n then (too often for my liking)

Following jockeys is wrought with danger.. That was the main thrust of my post and most if not all will send you into negative territory, over the long run.. even the good ones... Harvey may well be the exception...

Don't forget that I prefaced my original post by saying that I consider G RYAN the best in the land

Good Luck Mate...i'll have a slab on for good luck ..

You and hopefully the guys involved dont seem the type to just keep on going for the sake of it ...so i'm confident she's thriving and this isnt a real hard race for her..
fingers crossed ..

Herewefarkingoagain
 

Ok I am on Stratton Place in Melbourne... let's see if my crap luck with protests continues...

Odds on I get knocked off... again

well whatdya know... dismissed... good thing it wasnt in sydney..that mob are upholding anything at the moment

Next IN adelaide might be the day that I finally catch
Maybe McLaren

These are the horse I am looking at for the rest of the day.. This method seems to do ok.. has been pretty good to me today so far... watch em fall over

Easter Summer Time

10/12/2005 5:05 CHELTENHAM 7 1 MAYBE MCLAREN
10/12/2005 5:10 ASCOT 4 6 HI ON LOVE
10/12/2005 5:15 ROSEHILL 8 8 RADETZKY MARCH
10/12/2005 5:19 GOLD COAST 6 6 CALL GIRL
10/12/2005 5:25 DOOMBEN 7 17 MASTERMIND
10/12/2005 5:28 WAGGA 7 5 BAGO ROAD
10/12/2005 5:32 TOOWOOMBA 2 1 DODGE BALL
10/12/2005 5:35 SANDOWN 8 6 BUTTEN SHAW
10/12/2005 5:45 CHELTENHAM 8 4 SNIPIFY
10/12/2005 5:50 ASCOT 5 1 OUR GREY HALO
10/12/2005 5:58 GOLD COAST 7 4 NEXGEN
10/12/2005 6:01 STONY CREEK 10 6 MAGNASTAR
10/12/2005 6:04 DOOMBEN 8 4 TESTIFY
10/12/2005 6:27 ASCOT 6 6 PROFESSIONAL LADY
10/12/2005 6:50 TOOWOOMBA 4 2 CRAIGLEA COWBOY
10/12/2005 7:12 ASCOT 7 1 MISS ANDRETTI
10/12/2005 7:57 ASCOT 8 6 BLINDED
10/12/2005 8:37 ASCOT 9 1 TRI AMMO

Still can't catch it LOL *shakes head*

Just back her first up. :D

You have to be careful when posting your picks X. I have a theory that some of these Nags can and do read this forum before running. They then say to themselves "Ah, I see mad, Xpt etc think i'm gonna win this race. Well i'll teach them". The rest you know yourself...

Yeah ya probably right mate

Gday Mad,

I had 50 selections from this method for today.. I have posted em in the past and people say too many to choose from, so I didnt post em today...

but already today there are 50 units out for 64.4 back in .. with a few more to go, that is up to and including bago road at wagga

Didnt know Toowoomba R2 #1 was scratched.. ah well 1 less unit out

Greg Ryan Today
 

A few days ago I wrote:

His next outing is on Sunday at Cowra as best as I can see
Race 1/7 is probably a good thing probably odds on
Race 2/5 should be at decent odds, but wait n see
Race 3/2 has a good chance ran 2nd last 3 starts (imagine the price on this one)
Race 4/1 Will be short.. last start winner
Race 5 NO ride ... YET
Race 6/2 should be any price
Race 7/4 should be any price

The reults are as follows

His next outing is on Sunday at Cowra as best as I can see
Race 1/7 is probably a good thing probably odds on Fav ran 2nd was value
Race 2/5 should be at decent odds, but wait n see ran 2nd SP $3.4
Race 3/2 has a good chance ran 2nd last 3 starts (imagine the price on this one) yep... won at $1.6
Race 4/1 Will be short.. last start winner FAV at 2.5 WON
Race 5 /15 Started at 100's but manged to run 3rd and paid a miserly 5.3
Race 6/2 should be any price ran 3rd SP 4.2 2nd Fav
Race 7/4 should be any price Scratched

Today he rode 2 winners from 6 sits (great SR, Crap return) for a return of 4.1 (NSW TAB) BUTTT how pathetic is the place return on a horse starting at 95$.. 5.30.. Gimme a break... You could make great money on G Ryan a couple of years ago, but sadly, everyone knows about him these days as evidenced below

The horses below all started at shorter win quotes than Ryan's ride in Race 5, yet, all had larger place dividends.. If not for Ryan's Univeral appeal.. then why? This is what I mean.. he is the BEST jock around, but value is hard to find with himthese days. Eveyone is a wake up.. even when he rides 100/1 shots

Cowra Race 5 (CR)
Carlton Beer Class 1 Handicap
8. Hypnotised (8) 23.10 6.10
10. Base Command (12) 31.10 6.80
11. Juste A Chip (5) 23.30 5.70
14. Just A Freak (6) 26.10 7.10
15. Just Avaunt (11) 95.80 5.30

This must have been like that situation you mentioned the other day with the big discrepency with one of your selections. Guess what it paid for the place up here? $25.50! Which is pretty much what it should have been paying given it was $138 for the win.

Gday sportz,

yeah he is unbelievably popular in NSW.. the div you got up there is about what it should be.. 5.3 is absolutely ridiculous.. but the money must have been there in the place pool

Wednesday 14 December
 

Have a few followers today....

FOXTROT GUN - DOOMBEN Race 6 No 4

MAZUNDA - SANDOWNLAKESIDE Race 6 No 4 and CAMP KALANI - SANDOWNLAKESIDE Race 6 No 3
Both in the same race - CAMP KALANI won last start with big margin to 3rd horse at Kyneton so should be a nice chance. MAZUNDA should be fitter now and again a nice eachway chance....

MY MAN FRIDAY - SANDOWNLAKESIDE Race 8 No 4
Placed last two and can do the same again today...

Have a bit more time on my hands today, so will be back later with my thoughts on today @ Sandown.... (Hope they help...)

Thanks, Stix. Please post more when/if you have them. Us yanks usually get the bigger tracks on Wednesday; have Sandown and Rosehill today.

Regards,

Glenn

Still unofficially on holidays from tipping until the new year, but what the heck. Here's some races I'm looking at today:

ROSEHILL Race 1
2 SQUATTERS & 3 AQUA BLESSING
(2,3,1,4)

ROSEHILL Race 2
1 TEMPURA & 3 CRUMS

ROSEHILL Race 4
6 COMINGREADYORNOT
3 Rain Strategy
8 Pita Hapa
2 The Chieftan
(6,3,8,2 - 7,1,11)

ROSEHILL Race 7
7 COUNT LUSKIN
9 Leewards
8 Dial Tones
1 Prime Century
(7,9,8,1 - 14,6,2)

SANDOWN Race 3
3 MISS THERON & 5 EARLY AWAKENING
(3,5,4,2,1)

SANDOWN Race 6
11 SONIC ROYAL
3 Camp Kalani
10 Coffeeshoprumours
4 Mazunda
(11,3,10,4 - 6,16,1)

SANDOWN Race 7
7 GENEBEL & 1 CAPTIOUS
(7,1,5,2 - 3,9)

Sportz

Good Luck Fella

Geez, the exacta on R1 in Sydney paid quite well all things considered.

Sandown Wednesday 14 December
 

R2 - Storm Action 1 x 3
R3 - Early Wakening 1 x 2
R4 - Murray Downs WIN
R5 - Kepola 1 x 2
R6 - Camp Kalani 1 x 1
R7 - Captious WIN
R8 - Murcielago 1 x 2

Good Luck People....... (might need it... :D )

Sorry.... :(

And even better in Race 2! :)

We sure put the mock on Early Wakening, Stix. I had the quinella and any2 with 3, 4 & 5, so not too bad.

I think Holidazzle was one of Mav's a while back. I wonder if he bet today.

Sorry.... again ! :mad:

Think ur right Sportz.

I did look at it, but I though Early Wakening was going to be better value than it turned out being..... that's the trouble with posting your tips too early..... got tri, but not much profit in it for me...

Your going well fella.

Nope :( i'll be having a few fun bets alittle later on ..but i'm on a break so they'll be just a few slabs..

dont mind driver in the next ...

Hoooooooooooraaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy....... Still down but :( (although $2.30 much better than the $1.70 it WAS showing !)

wow hawksy's having a shocker today...needs to lift his game ;)

3 out of 3 for Beadman, and you know that when Darren goes well, that generally means that I go well!!! :D

By the way, that one of Hawkes' in Race 3 is a real rarity. It actually WON a trial. How often do his horses do that???

just got 1/2 the tri in Brissie :) just a spec on breeding ...
sort of a new system i'm trialing looking at distance horses jumping to a more suitable distance for the first time...
paid $27 ....but didnt have a win bet on...just a 2/3/7 trifecta..
in its early days but does show promise..