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-   -   Mark does a Maria (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=15504)

Mark 13th March 2007 05:29 PM

For a while there I thought I was going to get a clean sweep. Did not lay a winner until PM6, then laid 3 in a row. All in all a very pleasing day.

40 Lays
3 Accidents

Turnover $456
Profit $244.20

2 days total
105 lays
18 accidents
t/o $1276
profit $183.80
14.4% on t/o or 9.19% increase on bank.
strike rate 82.85%

Mark 14th March 2007 10:11 AM

Day 3 of the trial.
Gold Coast, Newcastle, Ballarat & Cheltenham.

GC1 13-2
GC2 3-1
GC3 6
GC4 7-3
GC5 4-6
GC6 1-10-8
GC7 1-5-8
GC8 6-10

N1 1
N3 6-1-2
N4 2-7-4
N5 10-3-6
N6 3-2
N7 1-9-4
N8 14-1-9

V1 9-3-4-2
V3 1-2-6
V4 1-4-2
V5 1-3-5
V6 1-3-10
V7 6-8-1

C1 6-7
C2 3-4
C3 8-2
C4 5-9-10
C5 14-6-12
C6 3-2
C7 5-8-6
C8 4-1
C9 4-5-1

A repeat of yesterday would be nice.

Mark 14th March 2007 06:52 PM

On the other hand, a terrible day would finish it off.
This is far too volatile for me.

54 bets
16 accidents
t/o $768
loss $214.42

3 day total
159 lays
34 accidents
t/o $2044
loss $30.62

Merriguy 14th March 2007 08:53 PM

Yes, a few too many 'accidents' there Mark. Couldn't follow them all myself because of various restraints and was able to come out ahead in actual fact --- so thanks for that.

Actually it took me some time to work out exactly what you were doing (I'm pretty slow!); but once I got the hang of it I did O.K..

The idea is good --- the picks for winners were the weak part. According to my additions you only came up with the winner in your picks 10/76 times. Or, more accurately, 10/30 races. If you were able to improve on that wouldn't the return necessarily improve?

Another way of expressing this would be to say that in 20/30 races a horse outside the 'picks' came home. Presumably, most all of these have come from the group "not in the picks but below $10.00" which are what you were relying on. Improvement has to come there. The idea is O.K. the implementation of it is failing, don't you think :confused:

Thanks for all the work done!

Mark 15th March 2007 07:58 AM

Merriguy

A very poor day by anyone's standards.
Will give it another go today.

Chrome Prince 15th March 2007 10:01 AM

Mark,

Can I suggest that laying is a different technical propect than backing.
Too many people place too much importance on the horse rather than the price.

For example: If I lay a horse @ $3.00 and I could have had $2.40 about it, then suddenly price plays more of a role.

I know you have a price cut off and don't like leaving bets "in the wind" but you might benefit by setting your own price rather than having to take what's offered.

You may only get matched on half the horses, but your profit might double.

Mark 15th March 2007 10:27 AM

Thursday's throng of thingamy's.

H1 11-1-7
H2 8-4-7
H3 9-8-5
H4 3-1-2
H5 3-4-1
H6 6-2-8
H7 6-1-11
H8 4-6

T1 1-5
T2 6-1-3
T3 2-1
T5 2-7-5
T6 1-6-3
T7 2
T8 4-6

B3 7-2-3
B4 1-5-3
B5 15-8-11
B6 7-1
B7 1
B8 5-2-3

Mark 15th March 2007 06:00 PM

Small profit today, but this is still not ideal.
Out of 20 races I had the winner in 16 of them so the risk reward ratio is out somewhere.

33 lays
5 accidents
t/o $388
profit $57

4 day total
192 lays
39 accidents or 79.6% strike rate.
t/o $2432
profit $26.38 or 1.08%

ps there was no TR8, I accidentally copied HR8.

Mark 16th March 2007 10:20 AM

Fifth day is Five meeting Freaky Friday. I'm not looking at MV tonight.

Q1 2-4-1
Q2 2-1-3
Q3 5-3-1
Q4 6
Q5 2-1-7
Q6 2
Q7 3-5-2
Q8 1-3-7

N1 10-6-7
N2 10-7-4
N3 1-3-6
N4 2-6-3
N5 1-5-3
N6 5-7-8
N7 1-7
N8 5-10-7

V1 11-7-3
V2 8-14
V3 14-3-1
V4 5-3-2
V5 7-2
V6 4-1
V7 7-1-14
V8 3

A1 10-8-1
A2 ---
A3 3-1
A4 4-6
A5 6-4-9
A6 6-1
A7 3-1-6

C1 6
C2 8-5-7
C3 3-1
C4 2-8
C5 1-5-3
C6 10-8-3
C7 2-3
C8 3-1
C9 7-2-3

If you believe in patterns, then today should be a loser.

Mark 16th March 2007 05:34 PM

So much for patterns.
Today was FAT. The type of day that I was hoping this system was capable of.

70 lays
6 accidents or 91.4% strike rate
T/O $824
Profit $419.80

5 day total
262 lays
45 accidents, 82.8% strike rate
T/O $3256
Profit $446.18, or 13.7%

Bank increased by 22.3%


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