Super Rugby Quarter Finals
 

Back at the start of this season, I mentioned that the first few weeks might rough, as old ratings needed to be adjusted and there was a new alignment. The first weeks were a bit rough; but we sure ended strongly after that.

Of my last 14 favourites, 13 won. Starting with week four, of the 9 games where I picked a bookie upset, 7 were correct. I checked 99 games starting with week 4. I found 37 value bets, 14 of which cashed for a profit on turnover of 38%, the highest I have had in 23 seasons, 19 of rugby.

If you take the computer ratings for my top 8 and move one from each conference to the top, you get exactly the order of the 8 seeded playoff teams.

I hope you have enjoyed the season. I am giving you my quarterfinal predictions. I will be away for the rest of the season, so good luck to all

See you next season.

Cheers!

Ray Stefani

Thanx again Ray..top tipping mate..have a great break..and carn thr Wallabies

Hi Ray. Will be doing odds on this years rugby championship?

The Rugby Championship
 

Hi Fatcat and all,

I don't have any national team ratings of my own to use for The Rugby Championship. I have looked at the World Rugby (used to be IRB) ratings. For 5 Rugby World Cups and 204 matches, their higher-rated team (including their home advantage) won 86%. Pretty darn good. The system is intended to give the probability of the higher-rated team winning, after adding three rating points to the home team.

Thanks to your question, I used World Rugby ratings for New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and Argentina to calculate the probability of the home and away teams winning and then the fair odds from that probability. I am attaching the odds for the 12 matcups.

I have never looked at the accuracy of the win odds against the bookies, but if the higher rated team wins 86% of the time, that's encouraging.

According to the World Rugby ratings, New Zealand would win all 6, Australia and South Africa would each win 3 and Argentina would be shut out.

I will still be rooting for the Wallabies, ratings or not.

Ray

The Rugby Championship, Second Round
 

The World Rugby (IRB) rating system seems to provide accurate odds. I mentioned that the Rugby World rating favourite, adjusted for home advantage, won 86% or five rugby union world cups. Their favourites won both game in round one of the Rugby Champioship. The odds using my derivation of the World Rugby equations were generally a bit higher than bookmaker decimal odds, which we would expect, given that bookmaker odds are set to make a profit. Hats off to Rugby World ratings.

I am attaching the calculations again for all 12 games.

Cheers,

Ray

cheers ray

Thanks Ray for your input once again
Crusaders win their 9th title
Champs!

The Rugby Champiosnhips, Round 3
 

World Rugby has adjusted their ratings. I took the new ratings for New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and Argentina and recalculated the predictions for rounds 3-6. If ratings are adjusted again, I will then update any un-played matches. Here are all 12 predictions, arranged by round. So far, three of the four matches have gone as Rugby World ratings predicted. Argentina upset South Africa in the other match.

New Zealand looks pretty strong so far. I would say that the outlook is all black for the others, but might not be punny.

Ray Stefani

The Rugby Championship Rounds 5 and 6
 

The World Rugby federation updated their ratings after rounds 3 and 4. Round 4 created changes since South Africa upset New Zealand playing away and Argentine upset Australia playing away. I am sending the new predictions and odds for rounds 5 and 6, using the new World Rugby ratings . There were no value bets for the first 8 games.

Cheers Ray