Super 15 week 9
 

The only value bet to cash last week was to Brumbies supporters.

Good luck with week 9.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

s15..rnd9..pyol..multi..highlanders+10.5 to beat blues..crusaders+9.5 to beat hurricanes..waratahs+1.5 to beat rebels..bulls+1.5 to beat brumbies

pyol
 

Super 15 · Round 9

Highlanders +3.5 v Blues

Highlanders v Blues +14.5

pyol
 

Super 15 · Round 9

Reds v Stormers +6.5

Reds +9.5 v Stormers

English Premiership
Newcastle up against Saracens
Taking Saracens h2h

Super 15 · Round 9

Hurricanes v Crusaders

Super 15 · Round 9

Waratahs v Rebels

Super 15 week 10
 

Highlanders supporters cashed last week's successful value bet.

The Crusaders are now on top of the computer ratings; but, All Blacks call ups may be a problem for the Crusaders in weeks to come.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Exeter 15:9

Sale 29:14

Cardiff 25:8

Saracens 31:26

Biarritz 29:12

Leinster 52:27

h2h / pyol
 

Super 15 · Round 10


Blues v Reds

Blues v Reds +15.5

pyol
 

Super 15 · Round 10

Chiefs +3.5 v Hurricanes

Hello Ray,
Bit of a newcomer to the Super Rugby
Re your last attachment, you have the teams listed under heading "Computer Ratings", checking that's how you see it, as at end of season?
Thanks

jimmyz - Computer Rankings
 

Hi Jimmyz - the rankings are week to week based on the teams performance from the round prior rather than an end of season ranking.

Hope that helps.

Super 15 Week 11
 

I'm sorry that I didn't notice Jimmyz's question but Thurston's was spot on with his answer. The computer rankings adjust each week and represent season-to-date, based on actual margin of victory versus actual margin of vistory. I have some ifnromation attached to each week's predictions about the method and using predictions for being a Smartgambler.

There have been an unusual number of upsets so far, affecting betting profit, largely traceable to home teams not playing as well as in the past. Home advantage is accounted for based on past data. This year, home teams have only a 35-31 record. They have outscored the visitors by only 1.5 points per game instead of 3.9 points per game for domestic matches and 5.4 points per game for international matches as in past years.
Good luck with week 11.
Cheers,
Ray

Super 15 predictions for week 11
 

I forgot to upload this with my last reply.

S15
Hurricanes up against Blues
Taking Hurricanes h2h & +6.5 pyol

S15
Rebels up against Bulls
Taking Bulls h2h & margin 13+

S15
Chiefs up against Lions
Taking Chiefs h2h & margin 13+

S15
Brumbies up against Waratahs
Taking Waratahs +10.5 pyol

French Top 14

Montpellier v Biarritz

S15
Sharks up against Highlanders
Taking Sharks h2h & Highlanders +15.5 pyol

S15
Cheetahs up against Western Force
Taking Cheetahs h2h

S15
Crusaders up against Reds
Taking Crusaders h2h

French Top 14

Bayonne v Agen

French Top 14

Brive v Bordeaux

hi ray
have you early thoughts yet on team likely to win the comp or teams most likely to fight it out?
thanks

Playoffs
 

Hi Kumite,

The top computer teams are the Stormers, Crusaders, Chiefs and Bulls who are close togeter and above everyone else. Taking that, the computer top two are "wild card" teams while the Chiefs and Bulls get a bye and home advantage in round 2 because they are conference leaders now. The Stormers would be at home to the Crusdaers if round 1 was now. So, that means the Stormers, Chiefs and Bulls seem to have an edge. The Brumbies seem to be the weakest playoff team based on computer rating. I hope that helps.

Ray

Super 15 week 12 (week 11 was perfect)
 

Last week was the best so far. All 7 winners were predicted correctly. The Hurricanes, Brumbies and Cheetahs rewarded supporters with successful value bets. Let's keep that up!

Good luck with week 12, seven weeks to go before the playoffs.

Ray

Thanks for the clarification Ray

And thurston

thanks ray :)

h2h / pyol
 

Super 15 · Round 12

Blues v Lions

Blues v Lions +17.5

h2h / margin
 

Shute Shield round 5

Penrith v Manly

Penrith v Manly 13+

pyol
 

Super 15 · Round 12

Highlanders +6.5 v Hurricanes

Highlanders v Hurricanes +10.5

S15
Rebels up against Crusaders
Taking Crusaders h2h & margin 13+