For those interested I think this explains it fairly well.

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/c...9-equipartition

5% is a very good return with volume. One must remember that to make that 5% you must first break even from a negative sum position. In the case of the tote, you have in fact made 23.5%. In the case of the bookie - greater. 12.3% on BF.

Not with me he doesnt Bernie.

Anyone with a brain knows that some of the stuff Re systems I put up is a dig at the system sellers who troll these sites.

I wont put up anymore as some cant appreciate a bit of a giggle and I,m sick of getting TOUD

Cheers

So can you point out when you're not being truthful please dd?

Darky
Does this mean that if you are betting 5 days a week, you are making $4000?
I always thought you preferred to back multiple selections per race?

Gentlemen.

You are all correct regards the significance of the 5% POT achievement on a consistent basis.. it's a bit bleeding obvious in the light of day! Feeble brain being what it is here and one too many late nights of late has somehow superimposed the concept of POT onto ROI(return on original bank or whatever term you use for it).

With 1-5% POT applied to decent volume, the accomplishment is material but a rare thing it would seem.

Apologies to you UB for any annoyance I have caused here. I will bow out now but point to a recent synopsis in passing as to how I think you play this game and your key point of difference in this respect...

1. you research like a scientist and
2. execute like a machine.


Good afternoon.

LG

I guess everyone should now have an understanding that the more events we invest the further we move from Equipartition, etc etc

This is why real statisticians compute the deviation from the mean.

If we tend to play even money propositions, the more we should become concerned with the deviation from equipartition.

As UB recounted the volatility of even money propositions on a daily basis.

Knowing from past results what our longest losing run will be, helps us to design the what length of betting series will be for these propositions. Published past results show that the typical longest losing run for this type of proposition will be 11.

Your betting series will now be 10 events, if you have past results break them into blocks of 10 events and record how many times you comeback to equipartition in each block of ten races.

Do this for as many races as you can. As the amount of times coming back to equipartition in a short term model is what then helps create your geometric progression model for this proposition.

Actually 12 parameters that helps us to invest short term in these propositions and to win long term.

Hi Clive ,
I still multibet on suitable races but added betting suitable favs 1287 bets ago .after something I read in Paul D thread.
Both work equally as well.
Cheers

Re:


Play this game, and the amount of times a certain number appears is astounding in one extreme for one player, and can appear to be extremely the opposite for another player.

5 players, or an odd number of players makes this game interesting if you are into probability stuff.

http://zilch.playr.co.uk/rules.php

Statistics, very basic

http://zilch.playr.co.uk/strategy.php

How does this relate to horse racing ?

Well, it sort of does, I can't explain why or how, but it eerily does.

Good old zilch.
I just got rid of all games off the computer, and you re-introduce one. I realised the amount of time that we can waste by switching our brains off. Surprising those that can't figure probability soon tire of the game. Which is why there is a portion of the community that says that you never win at gambling. And those that do win say that they are not gambling. Which leave the other group (thankfully) believe that they can win at gambling.