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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

michaelg 16th February 2013 11:06 AM

Today's selections:

Rosehill
3/8
4/10

Flemington
1/4

Dombeen
5/15, 17

M'ville
7/12, 14

Kembla
4/10, 11
8/3, 10

Muswellbrook
2/3
3/3, 10
5/11
6/5, 16

Grafton
2/8, 9
3/5
4/4, 10
6/7

Gold Coast
1/2
2/4
4/9

Toowoomba
1/4, 11
5/9

Ascot
6/5, 6, 9

Ballarat
1/7
3/2, 7

Rinconpaul 16th February 2013 01:57 PM

MichaelG, advise on SP betting
 
Mate, I'm placing live bets using my Livin' in the 80's system. With my rules I don't place a bet if SP<$10, as I've found that every now and then in historical trials you can get a horse with a 70-80 rating that starts favourite. In other words local knowledge reveals a smokie that they've been handbraking for awhile. This could happen with your system too as they are very silimilar.
When manually placing a SP bet you have control over your liability, you don't have any control over min odds to prevent getting burnt by a smokie. The only way I can control this is to sit at the computer all day and watch for such an occurrence and not place the bet. You obviously place all your bets beforehand in one hit, are you then confident that your system rules will always throw up a longshot and have no fear of it shortening into favouritism?
The other thing I notice is the rules select sometimes 150:1 shots or greater so you're risking $333 to make $2.20. Do you set a max odds, or just work on small bites high turnover?
Cheers
RP

michaelg 16th February 2013 02:31 PM

My rules are set in concrete that leaves no scope for opinion/gut feeling, etc, so that I can identify the selections as early as possible and also lay them at that time.

As for the price of the selection, I have no minimum/maximum and just have to put my confidence/hope in the effectiveness of the filters which seems to be doing the trick with a current 98% strike rate.

Rinconpaul 16th February 2013 02:43 PM

Thanks for the feedback Michael. Maybe there's a bot out there where you can set min Lay odds on SP. My system has thrown up 59 bets today compared to your 35, so fingers crossed it goes all right.
Cheers
RP

SpeedyBen 16th February 2013 06:12 PM

Neurals
 
For anyone interested
I've been laying longshot neurals for the last few days with some outstanding results.
The rules I've used are
1. The two longest priced horses in the neurals page for each race
2. Minimum field size 8
3. 21.0 dollars and longer on Betfair 5 seconds before the start.
The results so far are
235 lays
1 loser @ 23.0
Median price of the lays has been 75.0.
There are lots of small wins of course but betting to a liability of 20% of my bank the bank has increased by about 72% in 4 days. I have reset the liability at the start of each day in line with the bank

Rinconpaul 16th February 2013 06:25 PM

Good one SpeedyBen, I'll check it out.
Livin' in the 80's went well today with still a couple at Toowoomba to run, 57 from 57. My trial reached 524 bets 7 losses, $752 nett for $100 liability. Very encouraging, so I'll start day 2 of live betting tomorrow. Just need to find a way to set min odds for SP Lay betting as well as liability. Can do it on the Exchange but I'd feel about as comfortable as a "sardine in a shark tank!"
Cheers
RP

michaelg 16th February 2013 07:04 PM

Good luck, Speedy Ben.

I've never really had any success laying outsiders based on the neurals, so again, good luck.

RP, I hope you've had a good day. Not knowing anything about bots I don't know if you can set a minimum price because on Betfair S.P. I'm under the impression it can only be done with a maximum, not a minimum price.

A good day today - from the 34 selections there were 34 smiles for a profit of $222.44.

Rinconpaul 16th February 2013 07:24 PM

MG
I wanted to ask about Ballarat R3. My system threw up no. 5 rated 86 L3s X00 which won. I deleted it because it was $9.50, you didn't select it was that because it was a D Scott 100:1?
Cheers
RP

michaelg 16th February 2013 08:01 PM

RP, I omitted it because it was credited with 3.0 points in the Form column on the Worksheet.

The original filter was a minimum of 3.5 points but I later noticed that there were quite a few winners in the fancied end of the market with 3.0 points, so I altered the filter to a minimum of 3.0...thankfully.

macs 17th February 2013 06:16 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Just need to find a way to set min odds for SP Lay betting as well as liability. Can do it on the Exchange but I'd feel about as comfortable as a "sardine in a shark tank!"
Cheers
RP
Betbotpro will do that for you Paul, I use it everyday for laying outsiders at SP and it works well. You'll find it here http://www.betbotpro.com/


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