Bay Of Plenty 32:0

Otago 30:14

Canterbury 36:32

Auckland 29:13

..this multi was a winner

Anglo Welsh Cup

Ospreys up against Dragons

Should be reasonably close
Taking Ospreys h2h with a saver Dragons +12.5 handicap

..this multi was a winner

French Top 14

Toulon v Bayonne

Anglo Welsh Cup

Saracens up against Worcester

Taking Saracens h2h

Auckland 25:22

Taranaki 26:23

Southland 25:23

Canterbury 28:13

Waikato 25:10

h2h / handicap
 

Bordeaux v Lyon

Bordeaux +12.5 v Lyon

irb 7s..h2h..multi..wales to beat usa..australia to beat japan..nz to beat france

irb 7s..h2h..multi..australia to beat japan..nz to beat france..samoa to beat canada

IRB 7 • Wellington

Scotland v USA

anglo welsh cup..h2h..multi..leicester to beat newcastle..northhampton to beat london wasps..worcester to beat ospreys

anglo welsh cup..h2h..multi..leicester to beat newcastle..northhampton to beat london wasps

Wellington 30:25

pro12..h2h..ulster to beat dragons

pro12..h2h..cardiff blues to beat connacht

pro12..h2h..multi..cardiff blues to beat connacht..ulster to beat dragons

Aviva Premiership

Sale up against Worcester

Taking Sale h2h

Aviva Premiership

Bath up against Newcastle

Taking Bath h2h

6 Nations Week 2

Wales up against Scotland

Taking Wales h2h

Super 15 week 1 24-26 Feb.
 

Hello Everone.

Year two of the new three-conference system is about to start. Home advantage was a little lower last season with half the games being played in each team's country.

I start where last seaosn left off. My offensive and defensive ratings are from the end of last season. It takes about 4 weeks to reset ratings for this year's changes.

Bet very cautiously for the first four weeks.

I added a lot of info on how to bet with my predictions and some info about how my system works.
Good luck.
Ray Stefani

hi ray thanks for your input
looking at your week1 attach, just checking am reading it right
Crusaders & Lions both predicted to win & both are currently overlay money line value bets (as you put it) as odds available easily exceed your predicted odds?
also is this the main factor for "good" h2h bets or should we also consider, for example, a min % win probability or something else?
thanks again :)

bets for Super Rugby week 1
 

Hi Kumite

I checked TAB New Zealand odds. I do not see the Lions as an overlay bet. I have fair odds of 1.95 but TAB offers only 1.65. No value bet. I have the Cheetahs at 2.06 vs. TAB at 2.15, a mild value bet. Half Kelly suggests a bet of 1.9% of your bankroll. I have the Crusaders at 1.85 vs TAB at 2.10, a half Kelly 6.1% overlay bet. I have the Bulls at 1.65 vs TAB at 1.80, a half Kelly bet of 5.7%. That adds to 13.5% of your bankroll.

Remember, my odds are for ratings at the end of last season. They haven't been adjusted for player, manager or strategy changes. Be cautious for the first four weesk while the computer adjusts ratings.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

how much to bet
 

Hi Kumite,

I forgot to answer your other question about factors affecting a bet. The half Kelly equation takes care of how much overlay there is and not betting much on longshots. The numerator of the Kelly equation, Rf/Rb-1, is the amount of overlay, what you expect to win. If there is low overaly, that will suggest hardly any bet. You divide by Rb-1 which reduces bets on long shots (large Rb). I caution aganst Rb more than 4.35 anyway. Finally, you take half the result so as not to overbet and you scale down to 25% of your bankroll if you find a week with overlay bets titaling moe than 25% of your bakroll.

Good luck,
Ray

correction to my last reply
 

I wrote the numerator of the Kelly equation incorrectly in my last send. If Rb is the bookie decimal odds and Rf is my fair odds. The numerator of the Kelly equation should be Rb/Rf-1. If the bookie gives Rb = 2.2 and I have Rf = 2, then the numerator is 2.2/2 - 1 or 1.1 - 1 or 0.1. That means the expected overlay is 10%. The denominator for Kelly is Rb -1 which would be 2.2 - 1 or 1.1. Taking 1/2 Kelly you get 0.5 (0.1)/1.1 or 0.045. You bet 4.5% or your bankroll. The info with each week's predcitions gives the 1/2 Kelly formula and much more.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

thanks very much ray for all the additional feedback :)
softly, softly the first few rounds

pro12..h2h..ospreys to beat aironi

pro12..h2h..leinster to beat scarlets

pro12..h2h..multi..leinster to beat scarlets..ospreys to beat aironi

Website links in weekly predictions not working
 

Ray

The website links in your weekly predictions are not working. Looking for your predictions on the UK EPL please?

Regards
Fatcat

..this multi was a winner

..this bet was a winner

..this multi was a winner