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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

Rinconpaul 14th February 2013 07:00 PM

Well done Michaelg.

Lord Greystoke 14th February 2013 07:06 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Hi Beton,
No mate, I'm not posting any selections, just observing other methods and help if I can. No, I gave up selecting horses years ago. As I say and keep saying if the ratings and tips were any good why would they be giving them away?
No, I just program 2 bots to Lay a specific price range for 1st Fav's and 3rd Fav's come what may, every race. Have a 4x recovery staking plan. Average a $70 -$80 a day profit on $5 bets. Never get rich but its good pocket money.


Riconpaul, you certainly have a different perspective to some on here and it comes across as a breath of fresh air. We can all do with that from time to time I feel so thank you for this. Can you explain briefly what the '4x' means with regards your recovery method?

Cheers LG

Rinconpaul 14th February 2013 07:51 PM

4x means bot increases stake after loss to recover a quarter of loss over next 4 bets plus original stake each bet. If all goes well at the end of a session you have made the original stake x number of bets. Where it can go pair shaped is if you strike 2 losses in a row and then another loss shortly after. This will test your nerve, best to set a max limit to lose and when triggered the bot stops betting.

Lord Greystoke 15th February 2013 05:53 AM

ta mate.

LG

SpeedyBen 15th February 2013 09:37 AM

The psychology of longshot laying
 
Michael
You mentioned in an earlier post about the bank staying below a previous high for an extended period. I liken it to a share investment in that it has many small gains and then a correction to a lower level when it starts it's climb again. I have never owned a share which has outperformed my UK longshot lays, though.

michaelg 15th February 2013 10:29 AM

Yes, SB, it's not a bad investment and buzz-inducer by laying outsiders via S.P. if one's got a good selection method.

Even though my current profit of $1,420 since 22 Jan Feb of laying a $333 liability (about 3 weeks of laying) is not at his highest it would well and truly be had I introduced the C, T, and D filter from day one. So I'm hopeful...

Feebles 15th February 2013 10:57 AM

Worksheet data
 
I have the (Daily) worksheet data in excel if anyone is interested, I only request help in the summation of this data
I am on skype (feebles36)
Cheers

michaelg 15th February 2013 11:05 AM

Thanks, Feebles.

As you know I am hopeless with computers. I identify the selections manually which unfortunately is always open to human error.

Today's selections:

Port Mac
3/9

Goulburn
4/2
7/2, 4, 10

Sale
1/16
3/3
4/11
5/11

Ipswich
3/9
4/6, 10
5/2, 4
6/11

Esperance
1/10, 11, 12
2/7, 10
5/9, 10
7/12

Moonee Valley
7/9

beton 15th February 2013 11:59 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Feebles
I have the (Daily) worksheet data in excel if anyone is interested, I only request help in the summation of this data
I am on skype (feebles36)
Cheers

Hi Feebles.
I would be interested, and I would be more than happy to pass back any findings.
My addy is wally at wallyhughes dot com dot au.
Beton

Rinconpaul 15th February 2013 12:49 PM

Livin' in the 80's
 
Following in the footsteps of Michaelg and SpeedyBen I thought I'd try a twist on MG's system for laying longshots. Test on only 112 races. Rules: Tattsbet rating less than 90. Must have had 2 prev starts. No DWTC. SP > $10.
Based on $100 liability: 93 bets, no losses for a $281 profit after commission.
Encouraging, so I'll keep building a database of a 1000 races and let you know how it goes. For the Backers, of the 16 horses that passed the rules but had a SP less than $10, 6 won = 37.5% Win sr. You're right Michael about omitting DWTC form, this system would have gone down like the Titanic if I included it.


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