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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

The Ocho 13th February 2013 10:07 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Massive
...with what felt like a ridiculous number of favourites getting up.

Would love to know how Mark went today.

Regards,

Massive

21 of 50 got up today (42% SR).
Yesterday there were 9 from 20 (45% SR).

Thanks to sport of kings.

SpeedyBen 13th February 2013 10:28 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Mate if you've won 89 LAYS out of the last 100 days at say $1 stake = $89 win. So does that also mean you had 11 losing days at average $25 per $1 stake = $275 loss or you had 1.5 losses at $25 = $37.50 loss. It's a bit unclear? Thanks for the insight.
Not sure if you meant to write 89 LAYS above. I actually wrote 89 DAYS out of last 100 DAYS. In that time I layed about 700 horses of which 11 won at an average price of $25. That should be pretty clear, I hope.

SpeedyBen 13th February 2013 10:35 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
I
If you layed all the other shortest price Neurals you would have had 18 Lay wins and 1 Back win = 95% Lay win strike rate. Almost as good as yesterday(100%) No rules required except if it matches Skyform don't Lay it.
In fairness to R&S if I reversed the scenario and Layed the best overall Skyform horse except when it matched the Neural, you had 24 races for 19 Lay wins = 79% Lay win strike rate.

NEURALS – Multi factor analysis of numerous stats and data to produce an overall mathematical Neural rating.

In fairness only 2 days data.
If you had simply coupled up the 2 shortest price neurals in each race today in a $10 quinella you would have won $960.
Out of interest was there a decent profit from the 41% winners?

SpeedyBen 13th February 2013 10:49 PM

Perhaps we should start a neurals thread instead of taking over Michael's DS thread?
Happy to do it if Michael wishes it to be.

michaelg 14th February 2013 06:09 AM

SpeedyBen, no need to start a new (neural) thread. Please keep on posting here.

Rinconpaul 14th February 2013 06:23 AM

Laying Neurals update
 
When I reported in yesterday it was 5 o'clock and Ascot and Launceston hadn't run. That brought another 5 winners in for the Neural camp which meant 6 Back wins from 28 races after taking out Skyform favs. Not a good enough edge to Lay.

Interesting how in isolated areas, like TAS, No. 1 rated horses produced more winners. Reminds me of why the hi tech syndicates do so well in Hong Kong, only 2 racetracks and a limited number of horses to rate. Food for thought. Maybe if someone had the time, look at Win percentage of No 1 rated horses in Tas compared with the mainland?

Rinconpaul 14th February 2013 08:57 AM

MichaelG post mortum
 
Mate looking at the two horses that brought you undone yesterday, Executive Action, Ascot R8, was only having its 2nd start! Sacred Snaadee had dropped in class and they put a top hoop on board. It was a trainer's setup from the start! Had a kid on board in an Open last start, brought it back this time in a 0-71 Hcap and put a jockey on board with a near 48% strike rate for a place. This is what we're up against! I think your selection method is reasonable but once you get your shortlist have a look for anything sneaky.

Massive 14th February 2013 09:55 AM

Feeling versus Fact
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Yesterday there were 9 from 20 (45% SR).


True.

I just notice them more when I am going backwards.

Brilliant work on the trading by the way.

Regards,

Massive

michaelg 14th February 2013 10:14 AM

Riconpaul, it was priced at $100 in Don Scott's market. However we applied a filter that no selection can have a T, D or C in its form, but a few days ago I decided to do away with this filter...look what happens!

And the other accident was having it's second career start - this is only the second time this has led to an accident, and I'm sure that including these selections are showing a profit because there have been many of them.

Thanks for your concern and observations.

michaelg 14th February 2013 11:11 AM

Today's selections:

Gosford
4/16

Seymour
2/6
3/7

Yeppoon
1/3, 7
2/1, 10

Bunbury
3/1, 10
4/8
5/11
8/3


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