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-   -   Interesting statistics....! (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19157)

schmucta80 6th August 2009 12:31 PM

How does your database go with working out things like distance the same as last start, or distance less than last start and distance more than last start.

Winners at today distance, or todays track, or todays track and distance.

Another thing I am interested in is horses that raced over a track and distance they had not won at before, but then racing within the next 8 days at a track and distance they had been successful at previously. SO it could be like a trainer gettin a run into his horse and then racing it a week or so later at a track and distance they know it competes well at.

Shaun 6th August 2009 12:44 PM

Those systems do exist but we need to change the direction, i used to have a system of looking for horses with good form that were down 5kg or more in weight and used to get regular 20/1+ winners and atleast a 50/1 winner once a month but with weight changes and class changes these days to races you can't realy find these horses.

There was a good thread on here about looking for 20/1 shots that i followed for awhile but after 100+ losing streak it was stretching the budget a bit

here is a small adjustment to the system i just posted.

<8 Days Break
<$3
<1 Length
3...6 yo
Sel 709
Wins 351
SR 49.51%
Return 796.80
P.O.T 12.38%

Shaun 6th August 2009 01:00 PM

Sure does all that, i think there is a trial version of the database, Chrome will be around later he is the guy that created it and can tell you more.

crash 6th August 2009 04:47 PM

Chrome created it ?

Shaun 6th August 2009 05:53 PM

As far as i know, thats who sells it.

Pauls123 6th August 2009 09:38 PM

Wow, I am impressed here, I get home from coffs harbour cup and all the answers to this thread have been done, well done boys,..!

And Schmucta, I will say one thing, if you can afford that data base, its worth every cent of the $405. All these questions you are thinking of, the answers are spat out in a few seconds.

Shaun, you have come up with some pretty good stuff there. I'm going to have a play with your figures and see what develops. The reason that prompted me to start this thread initially was the fact that whatever system you run, the <8 day factor comes way out on top. But the actual number of winners it has produced accounts for around 9% of the 38,000 winners over the 9 plus years of this data base. So this is of course the reason that systems such as outlined by you, dont have that many bets. Depends I guess on the person, is 2 bets a week enough to satisfy the betting adiction of us punters..?

Being a recent purchaser of this db, I've gone down an angle which I am not sure if most have or not. This saturday will only be my second saturday I have actually used my systems, so looking forward to see what happens then.

Paul

Chrome Prince 6th August 2009 09:38 PM

Yes, I devised it, programmed it, and propun markets it for me.

Chrome Prince 6th August 2009 09:47 PM

Paul,

It might interest you to know, that the pro punter Sean Bartholomew also uses the 7 day criteria in his punting.

http://www.racenettv.com.au/default.asp?f=Sean.wmv

The results are a lot better if you eliminate hurdles and steeples.

Chrome Prince 7th August 2009 11:40 AM

Here's some examples of the differences in sticking to flat races.

Last start winner within 7 days raw...

18.66% S/R
4.84% loss on turnover

But this also included a winner @ $47.90, so if that didn't occur again the loss is greater.

So we click Modify Search and in the Closing Price, we consider horses that are under $10.00 on the tote.

Requests -> Add New Request.
Click the Omit button on the toolbar and in the race class box type Hurdle.

And again...

Requests -> Add New Request.
Click the Omit button on the toolbar and in the race class box type Steeple.

Hit the green Search button.

26.51% S/R
2.50% POT.

We then get Top Fluctuation or go to Betfair and get the extra 5% to 15% after commission.

There are other filters that improve this, but they are part of the systems included, so I can't post those.

But for those with the database, this shows you how to omit something from your search.

I've endeavoured to keep the speed of the database optimum.

I compared it with another commercially available database.

RaceCensus to 28 seconds to search for all favourites and do all the calculations of strike rate and profit & loss.
The other took 3 hours!

Note: to be fair the other calculates ratings etc, but a simple favourites search would leave me pulling out my hair ;)

Stix 7th August 2009 12:15 PM

This DB have non-metro racing Chrome? Is this different to the RaceCensus DB?


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