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-   -   Backfitted System .... (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12682)

KennyVictor 4th March 2006 10:17 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1

Here is a "backfitted" system which might be worth watching. All the back fitted rules are sensible (in my opinion). I developed this today cause I got bored and thought I would give backfitting a go.

It has had 10 bets in the last 10 days and has had 10 winners.
Hi Wesmip,
When I read this at first I assumed the 10 bets for 10 winners was the result of backfitting but reading some replies I get the impression some others think you backfitted it and then had the 10 winners using the rules.

Which is it? How many bets have you had since you devised the system?

KV

wesmip1 4th March 2006 11:38 AM

KV,

ok to avoid confusion I did the following :

Took some data I had stored from Dec - Jan and essentially backfitted the results so that it only had horses which had won or placed. Any horse which didn't at least place I found a reason to exclude ( hence backfitting ).

I then checked it over the previous 10 days and found it had 10 selections for 10 Winners. But I didn't test these real time ( but they were not part of the data which was used for backfitting).

I haven't bothered going back further.

The backfitted results were :

Races : 45 ( 2 months of data)
Wins : 30
Places : 45
WIN ROT : 183%
PLACE ROT : 153%

I don't believe the above figures are worth anything except to show the system might have some potential. Hence I only put up the last 10 days worth as these were not part of the backfitted data.

The first "live" selection where I actually picked the winner before the race was the first one I posted here. Regardless of that the system had selected 11 winners in a row.

Therefore new stats are (with those 11 winners and a second) :

Races : 57
Wins : 41
Places : 57

Hope that clears it up.

wesmip1 4th March 2006 11:44 AM

michaelg,

Probably could vary it, I just had a quick look over the data and found it was only one rule that really mattered. I might be able to just use this one rule, but it is the main filter and was the one that really cut out the majority of losers.

Anyway I will have a play aorund and anything I come up with I will post.

BTW there were no selecitons today.

Good Luck.

KennyVictor 4th March 2006 12:59 PM

Thanks Wesmip, that makes it much more valid than my first impression. I look forward to more results.
KV

Duritz 4th March 2006 05:47 PM

Yay Wesmip, our new leader!! Let us follow you, as children into the Piper's caves!! Lead on!!

wesmip1 4th March 2006 07:53 PM

No Selections for Sunday.

Duritz 4th March 2006 10:12 PM

Oh Wesmip, this is torturous!! We want to unload!!

We want to walk up to the bookie and say, "Give me EVERYTHING on the Wesmip moral!!!!!"

KennyVictor 5th March 2006 04:59 PM

And the bookie shall say unto us "Nay, nay heathen rabble, get thee behind me unto the piper's caves from whence ye came. I shall bet against no such certainties."
And the horses shall say "Neigh, neigh.........

No, I've changed my mind. I refuse to be part of this Tomfoolerey.

dingoboy 5th March 2006 06:09 PM

Are there any women here ?
No ...No....SHe is, she is,...no,...he is ,....he is.

Its all good fun.

Duritz 5th March 2006 06:43 PM

And Wesmip shall calleth from the mountain to us, delivering unto us his ten Commandments for punting glory, and we shall be glad.


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