Mark, in Skibo Castle's race there were several unraced horses. Could this have an adverse effect on your selection process?

No Michael, just bad luck. The only place that horse was in front was right on the line. grrrrr
Photo's in the last couple of weeks have not favoured me. Margins of less than a 1/2 head have cost me dearly lately.

The only thing that keeps me going, is knowing that Maria made nothing over a period of 70 days, and had another run where she lost 4.5 % over 30 days.

Ipswich
R3 4 IMPERIAL GROUCH.......................4.4
R4 4 FRISCO AFFAIR............................no bet
R5 10 MAXIMISS .................................no bet
R7 2 RED ABERNANT ...........................3.1 fav

Canterbury
R4 5 ANEXTRA ....................................no bet
R5 6 FULLY ARMED ..............................no bet
R6 6 SPRINGDINGO ............................7.19
R7 1 FLYING ORDERS ..........................no bet

Sandown
R2 6 HIGH CZAR .................................no bet
R5 4 DISCORSI ...................................no bet
R6 6 FLASHNIKOV ...............................no bet

Coffs
R3 3 TIGRE D'OR .................................3.55
R5 7 GALLIC MISS ...............................off
R6 4 SONOFA STAR .............................off
R7 3 BELLBUCCA .................................off
R8 3 GYMNASIUM ................................off

Kyneton
R2 10 SKIBO CASTLE ...........................6.2....won (nose, again!!)
R3 3 DENSARRAY ................................no bet
R4 5 THINKING ...................................no bet
R5 8 FAYE'S HAT .................................8.0
R7 3 LURE THE LION ............................3.7....won
R8 2 ZWAHILLION ...............................no bet....big priced winner

7 bets, 2 losers, nett loss $27.44
New bank $2005.81, amazingly still in profit.
Bets unchanged.

Yes, its amazing its still in profit after a poor strike rate. I would say your staking method must be very good, and so I would not feel too discouraged.

Once the strike rate picks up, so too should the profit.

I've been thinking about your comments on the TAB 1-3 numbers. I believe it would have had another good day today by limiting the lay price to $10. Tomorrow hopefully I'll give it a go but I'll record seperately the Listed, Group and Set Weights to the Handicaps, Class races, Restricted, etc. We'll see what happens.

I've had that problem all my life :(

Chin up!

Pixie

You are really doing well, Mark. Disappointing that there are so many of your picks that don't win, yet they are outside your prices range. {Actually Maria says a few times that she did have another band that she did bet on --- but she did not want to get people being carried away. Zwahillion was certainly a cautionary tale in that regard.****

Not sure why Fully Armed and Densarray could not have been layed. Their starting prices on the UniTab were O.K.. I wasn't able to be at the computer all yesterday (and missed both the winners!!); so there probably was some reason.

Day 6

Warwick Farm
R6 9 GREY STREAM

Caulfield
R1 1 SNORT
R3 7 MILLIE ROSE
R4 2 FURIO

Doomben
R1 1 WAKIL
R4 3 RAPID REASON
R6 13 SHA'BOURNE REGAL

R6 13 SHA'BOURNE REGAL

I'll have bit of that thanks, what odds?

R4 3 RAPID REASON
I'll have a bit of that too!

ouch
 

ouch!, mark, you had a similar day to myself me thinks, a shocker!

anyones thinks its easy to pick a 'loser', better rethink that illusion (delusion?) right now

I don't think turning a losing win bet system into a lay system always works. But keep going Mark as you know there will always be "accident" days. I'll just coming off a nasty two Saturdays, but yesterday was the best for some time.

Keep going

Pixie

seems to me that it all comes down to "bottle" (should we say tenacity) I've thinking about that a lot while I've been hibernating in the Philippines for 3 months, it IS a skill that I have finally mastered, so it seems to opening many more opportunities.................. keep it coming guys!!

Morning all.
No, I haven't bolted leaving lots of gambling debts in my wake.
Had an unexpected 5 days in hospital from late on the previous Saturday.
My Betfair a/c tells me it was a losing day, not that I can remember much of it.
I will be testing another lay system from tomorrow.

By the way, did anyone else notice a very poor ride by a high profile jockey on a big drifter in the first at Randwick yesterday? Nothing said.......unbelievable.

Thanks to the one person who emailed me, concerned about my sudden disapperance.

Welcome back, Mark. Yes we all thought you had done a bolt :) Things were not that good on the English B/F scene for most of us, though Pixie seems to have lighted on an answer. Good to have you back.

Youngbuck is steaming along well on a very simple system. More power to him --- and you would be well advised to read his and Pixie's threads.

Yes, welcome back, Mark.

Hoping you are in perfect health, and also hoping your new system will be successful.

Michael.

Welcome back
 

Hi Mark

You've been missed. Hope all is well.

Did you manage to wrestle any cash off the nurses?

No such luck Pixie.
I'm ok Michael, not much left of my car though.

One week trial from today.
Using Maria's 'updated' price bands.
0-3.50 = 1%
3.55-4.60 = 0.8%
4.70-6.40 = 0.6%
6.60-10.00 = 0.4%
Bank = $2000

Don't lay 1st starters unless odds on.
Don't lay selections below.
Lay others up to 10.0.

S1 1-6-4
S3 2-6-4
S4 1-6
S5 12-4-6
S6 1-2-6
S7 2-10-6

M2 4-6-5
M3 1-2-4
M4 2-3-4
M5 1-2-10
M6 2-1-3
M7 3-8-1
M8 1-8

B2 5-8-7
B3 13-10-11
B4 5
B5 4-5
B6 4
B7 2

A1 6-3-7
A2 4-10-6
A4 1-4-5
A5 3-2-5
A6 7-9-8
A7 1-2
A8 9-5-2
A9 4-2-1

Pak
P1 9-1-3
P2 10-9-6
P3 6-8-3
P5 8-2-4
P6 1-7-3
P7 2
P8 2-3-1
P9 1-7

Trying to pick winners instead of losers.

Forgot to add.......lay the fav if it's not top pick.

What a horrible day!
A few really good results, but too many races where I think I had a pumpkin on when doing the form.

65 lays
15 accidents........at least 5 too many.
Total bets $820 for a loss of $60.40

Back tomorrow for more torture.

Today's torture.

PM1 1
PM2 1-3
PM3 7-6-1
PM4 1-9-7
PM5 2-1-4
PM6 5-3
PM7 4
PM8 3-5-2

T1 5-7-10
T2 1-3
T3 13-7
T4 1-7-6
T5 1-5-2
T6 11-13-7
T7 6-1
T8 11

For a while there I thought I was going to get a clean sweep. Did not lay a winner until PM6, then laid 3 in a row. All in all a very pleasing day.

40 Lays
3 Accidents

Turnover $456
Profit $244.20

2 days total
105 lays
18 accidents
t/o $1276
profit $183.80
14.4% on t/o or 9.19% increase on bank.
strike rate 82.85%

Day 3 of the trial.
Gold Coast, Newcastle, Ballarat & Cheltenham.

GC1 13-2
GC2 3-1
GC3 6
GC4 7-3
GC5 4-6
GC6 1-10-8
GC7 1-5-8
GC8 6-10

N1 1
N3 6-1-2
N4 2-7-4
N5 10-3-6
N6 3-2
N7 1-9-4
N8 14-1-9

V1 9-3-4-2
V3 1-2-6
V4 1-4-2
V5 1-3-5
V6 1-3-10
V7 6-8-1

C1 6-7
C2 3-4
C3 8-2
C4 5-9-10
C5 14-6-12
C6 3-2
C7 5-8-6
C8 4-1
C9 4-5-1

A repeat of yesterday would be nice.

On the other hand, a terrible day would finish it off.
This is far too volatile for me.

54 bets
16 accidents
t/o $768
loss $214.42

3 day total
159 lays
34 accidents
t/o $2044
loss $30.62

Yes, a few too many 'accidents' there Mark. Couldn't follow them all myself because of various restraints and was able to come out ahead in actual fact --- so thanks for that.

Actually it took me some time to work out exactly what you were doing (I'm pretty slow!); but once I got the hang of it I did O.K..

The idea is good --- the picks for winners were the weak part. According to my additions you only came up with the winner in your picks 10/76 times. Or, more accurately, 10/30 races. If you were able to improve on that wouldn't the return necessarily improve?

Another way of expressing this would be to say that in 20/30 races a horse outside the 'picks' came home. Presumably, most all of these have come from the group "not in the picks but below $10.00" which are what you were relying on. Improvement has to come there. The idea is O.K. the implementation of it is failing, don't you think :confused:

Thanks for all the work done!

Merriguy

A very poor day by anyone's standards.
Will give it another go today.

Mark,

Can I suggest that laying is a different technical propect than backing.
Too many people place too much importance on the horse rather than the price.

For example: If I lay a horse @ $3.00 and I could have had $2.40 about it, then suddenly price plays more of a role.

I know you have a price cut off and don't like leaving bets "in the wind" but you might benefit by setting your own price rather than having to take what's offered.

You may only get matched on half the horses, but your profit might double.

Thursday's throng of thingamy's.

H1 11-1-7
H2 8-4-7
H3 9-8-5
H4 3-1-2
H5 3-4-1
H6 6-2-8
H7 6-1-11
H8 4-6

T1 1-5
T2 6-1-3
T3 2-1
T5 2-7-5
T6 1-6-3
T7 2
T8 4-6

B3 7-2-3
B4 1-5-3
B5 15-8-11
B6 7-1
B7 1
B8 5-2-3

Small profit today, but this is still not ideal.
Out of 20 races I had the winner in 16 of them so the risk reward ratio is out somewhere.

33 lays
5 accidents
t/o $388
profit $57

4 day total
192 lays
39 accidents or 79.6% strike rate.
t/o $2432
profit $26.38 or 1.08%

ps there was no TR8, I accidentally copied HR8.

Fifth day is Five meeting Freaky Friday. I'm not looking at MV tonight.

Q1 2-4-1
Q2 2-1-3
Q3 5-3-1
Q4 6
Q5 2-1-7
Q6 2
Q7 3-5-2
Q8 1-3-7

N1 10-6-7
N2 10-7-4
N3 1-3-6
N4 2-6-3
N5 1-5-3
N6 5-7-8
N7 1-7
N8 5-10-7

V1 11-7-3
V2 8-14
V3 14-3-1
V4 5-3-2
V5 7-2
V6 4-1
V7 7-1-14
V8 3

A1 10-8-1
A2 ---
A3 3-1
A4 4-6
A5 6-4-9
A6 6-1
A7 3-1-6

C1 6
C2 8-5-7
C3 3-1
C4 2-8
C5 1-5-3
C6 10-8-3
C7 2-3
C8 3-1
C9 7-2-3

If you believe in patterns, then today should be a loser.

So much for patterns.
Today was FAT. The type of day that I was hoping this system was capable of.

70 lays
6 accidents or 91.4% strike rate
T/O $824
Profit $419.80

5 day total
262 lays
45 accidents, 82.8% strike rate
T/O $3256
Profit $446.18, or 13.7%

Bank increased by 22.3%

Great job Mark.

Cheers Pixie, I'll be posting again tomorrow then that's it, too much form to do & not enough time.

Yes, well done, Mark.

I could not keep up the pace either --- and I wasn't trying to do the form!! There has to be a way of narrowing things down more.

Still, interesting.