Yeah, and when a team has a game like that, more often than not it's away from home. I guarantee that if those same two teams were up against each other in Sydney next week, the Waratahs would probably win just as easily as the Chiefs did today. I'm not sure exactly why home ground advantage should be so hugely important, but it definitely is! In fact, these days I hardly ever back a team away from home unless I think they are EXTREMELY good value.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-27 19:12 ]

Well I think it's obvious why home advantage is important in S12s :wink:

I think motivation, home support and being familiar with surroundings, maybe more relaxed etc all have something to do with it.

I'm gonna try to adapt my model to NRL and Super League.

Got cheated again. Had highlanders +12, score was 29-36 with 5 mins to go. A 50m penalty goal takes it to 29-39 with 1 min to go. Siren goes, highlanders have the ball. A minute later crusaders cross the line and beat my spread, I feel raped :wink:

It's funny how often there's a score off the last play or few in Super 12s.

Mr J,

Yeah, it's funny how that sort of thing happens. Anyway, bad luck with your bet, but personally I wouldn't have backed against the Crusaders at home today.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-27 21:54 ]

Me neither :wink:

It was a good game. Both sides playing very well. Crusaders really coming into form. They weren't 17 points better though. Well you win some, lose some.

System has gone well so far, 4-2 this weekend, although I didn't bet one of those wins (chiefs covered, but you wouldn't take +3.5 or +4 at 1.90 if you thought the spread should be 3).

Picked the right spread 11/13 times, and you would've bet 9 of those to go 7-2.

Picked the right total 8/13 times, and would've bet 10 of those to go 6-4.

Also have Stormers +4.5 and the over 46.5.
Brumbies -8 and the over 50.

I really need to find out what each point is worth in terms of price.

Notice MrJ that the Highlanders are showing a failure to concentrate in the last 10 minutes of there last 3 games .Can be horrible if your betting the line and taking the Highlanders,intiallaly I thought this was a one off event but its proving to be an inherant problem.

[ This Message was edited by: kiwi@nz on 2004-03-28 08:47 ]

Whats everyones general thoughts on the Brumbies v Reds game,does anyone know what the weather will be doing ?

how many points do you think thr reds will score? 15, 18 or more