OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Long Shots + Loss Chasing Method = Nightmare!!!

OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/index.php)

- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Long Shots + Loss Chasing Method = Nightmare!!! (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25862)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barny

You're not going to have a market to bet into and,

All the prices I use are obtainable and available at the time of recording. For example if I am laying to a liability of $1000 and the odds are $300 I only need to lay $3.33. My program uses the odds at the highes amount I need to do the lay. Although usually this amount is easily possible on betfair. Even laying $10 for odds at $100 for a liability of $1000 is very easy to do. Look at any market on betfair and you will see this liquity available. An example of how my program works is this:

there are bet odds of $100 and lay odds of $120. It will lay at the $120. Lets say I need to lay to liability of $1000. It will check the amount available at $120 and if this is only $4 then we can only lay to $480. It then checks the next higher price for laying. this might be $200 and have $2 available. If this is the case it will record that I could have layed at odds of $200 for $6 for a total liability of $1200. This covers the amount needed and will recored the lay at odds of $200 for a liability of $1000. I assume I will get the worst odds that way in real life betting I can only be laying more and making a larger profit margin.

Quote:

If you're betting for the win and you have that horrible run of outs, then the size of your bet will ensure you get way under the odds.

Its fixed price on betfair so this has no bearing on it at all. Maybe it will push my prices higher but its easy to lay up to $10,000 liability on betfair. Just take a look at most of the races and you will see the amounts might not be much but if there is $6 available at odds of $500 that is $3000 liability covered. This is frequently more then enough (rarely laying for an amount of more then $10 return).

Betfair fixed odds makes this possible. Mind you without betfair this would not work because of the reasons you have noted so in a way we are both right !!!

Are you punting this UselessBettor ??, 'coz if you are then it will certainly change what I say. I don't believe you can chase losses but I certainly wouldn't want to make that point while a fellow member was putting his money where his mouth was. :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barny

Im just testing it at the moment. I am not putting any bets on although the way I have my test environment setup it gives me a very close approximation to what would happen in real life. I have ran the test environment against real bets and it has a deviation of approx 1 missed bet/lay per 880 recorded.

Jan 11: Lay to $100 : Profit $41.97 : Bank $10327.34 <-- HIGH
Jan 12: Lay to $100 : Loss of $135.74 : Bank $10191.60
Jan 13: Lay to $150 : Loss of $86.34 : Bank $10105.26
Jan 14: Lay to $225 : Loss of $183.03 : Bank $9922.23
Jan 15: Lay to $338 : Profit of $44.33 : Bank $9966.56
Jan 16: Lay to $338 : Profit of $107.99 : Bank $10074.55
Jan 17 : Lay to $338 : Profit of $62.60 : Bank $10137.15
Jan 18 : Lay to $338 : Lost of $228.14 : Bank $9919.01
Jan 19 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $79.35 : Bank $9998.36
Jan 20 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $76.26 : Bank $10074.62
Jan 21 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $11.06 : Bank $10085.68
Jan 22 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $18.81 : Bank $10104.49
Jan 23 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $61.10 : Bank $10165.59
Jan 24 : Lay to $507 : Profit of $12.12 : Bank $10177.71

Slowly recovering it back to our high.