Wasn't thinking of backing them. I was simply asking if that was the circumstances that you measured in your test.

A thousand pardons Sportz I read your post too quickly and misunderstood the gist of your question. Yes, that's exactly what I would do in the context of the test.

As regards track differences - I've run the figures on NSW races using the SP to find the favorite or longest priced horse and the returns based on the NSW TAB payout.

Longest priced horses return.

• about 56% of your cash with a strike rate of 2.33% on heavy tracks.
• about 53% of your cash with a strike rate of 1.51% on slow tracks.
• about 41% of your cash with a strike rate of 1.08% on dead tracks.
  
• about 42% of your cash with a strike rate of 1.13% on good tracks.
  
  

Favorites return.

• 88.02% of your cash with a strike rate of 31.18% on heavy tracks
  
• 89.77% of your cash with a strike rate of 31.89% on slow tracks
  
• 89.37% of your cash with a strike rate of 32.76% on dead tracks
  
• 90.23% of your cash with a strike rate of 33.83% on good tracks
  

Not a great difference with favorites but the longshots seem to do better on worse tracks.

KV

Yeah, that was pretty much what I thought.

Longshots seldom come alone
 

Hi KV!
Flemingtom today!
Two over tens, and kabooom, a $68 longshot. That will do me.
Although, why Roman Arch was at those odds beats me? I had it as a third selection, but that's beside the point!!!
Cheers

Good on ya Marcus. I mean to test this multiple longshot thing when I get time. Can't say I agreed on Roman Arch, I had him gasping for breath 6 and a half lengths behind the winner so I certainly wouldn't have picked him on ratings alone. But still, I didn't lose any quinellas at Flemington because I never got a first one to come up - didn't even come close, which might explain my failure on RA.
KV

[QUOTE= I mean to test this multiple longshot thing when I get time.[/QUOTE]

Hi KV!
Know what you mean! I will do it myself soon, lucky I only bet on a limited number of meetings, I don't think it would work, betting on every meeting, every race. Not having done the research I just don't know.
As to Roman Arch, we all have a different approach to rating.
Sometimes I am right, other times you are.
Wish we all would be right a bit more often though??
Cheers