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-   -   Ms B Joesph....First Up (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12196)

BJ 29th December 2005 02:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale
Hi JFC,

Could you explain that in plain english please.

I dont get - "inverse proportion to (non-fractional) SP - i.e. 1/SP"

and what are you doing that aims to avoid the supposed trouble of fluke longshots.


Yeah i said supposed,it seems silly to me to have a system that tries to latch on to longshots and then when they arrive treat them as flukes,we are dealing with first up horses,of course there is going to be some very big priced winners.


I think what is meant here is betting to return a figure rather than betting a certain stake.

Some people will put a unit on their decided horse no matter the odds. Therefore as much will be bet on a $2 horse as a $100 horse.

JFC works out his stats by betting to return a figure. Let us say $1000.
If the horse is showing $2, you would put $500 on it, hence returning you $1000.
Of course if that horse is showing $100, then you will only need to put $10 on to return your $1000.

Dale 29th December 2005 03:06 PM

Thanks BJ, i kind of figured that was what he meant.

JFC,

I'm not wasting my time checking that link,now that i am up with what you are doing i intend to further disregard your figures.

You seem well read when it comes to punting but surprisingly you have missed THE most important factor that all pro punters have confessed,that being that almost all of their profit comes from the few times a year that they go in for the kill with a horse they rate a very good thing that turns out to be a longer priced horse.

Many a pro having relised the above have reversed their staking to bet more on their longer priced selctions and thus increase their pot.

I'm from that school.

La Mer 29th December 2005 03:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale
You seem well read when it comes to punting but surprisingly you have missed THE most important factor that all pro punters have confessed,that being that almost all of their profit comes from the few times a year that they go in for the kill with a horse they rate a very good thing that turns out to be a longer priced horse. Many a pro having relised the above have reversed their staking to bet more on their longer priced selctions and thus increase their pot.I'm from that school.


Knowing a great deal of 'pro punters' I don't know anyone that bets exactly in that manner. Some may use a Kelly approach whereby they bet to their advantage but that does NOT mean having more on a longer priced horse, but more a case of having ore on the horses with the greatest (mathematical) advantage, e.g. getting 6/4 about a horse they rate as an even-money chance as against getting 20/1 about a horse they rate at 10/1.

There are many 'pros' that simply number crunch, they wouldn't know a form guide from a tv guide - some of the biggest in terms of turnover fall into this category.

You may be successful in the way you go about doing what you do Dale, but your successful way is certainly not the only way and would certainly be a minority way.

Dale 29th December 2005 09:45 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by La Mer

You may be successful in the way you go about doing what you do Dale, but your successful way is certainly not the only way and would certainly be a minority way.



That's fair enough but i'm very very happy to be in the minority!

Racer 30th December 2005 03:22 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by NANOOK
Racer

What appears to be the problem at Rosehill?

nanook

Nanook,

My humble apologies, it's as though it's taking me 2 quid's worth for one penny to drop, I was looking at that line but not seeing it correctly, maybe there's such a thing as temporary Dyslexia - if there is, I have it.

I am staring at 'LLWS' and 'RSR' but I just can't recall what either is, hopefully it will eventually return.

Thanks again,

Kind Regards.

NANOOK 30th December 2005 10:10 PM

Racer

No worries mate....

WPOT = WIN PROFIT ON TURNOVER
LLWS = LONGEST LOSING WIN SEQUENCE
RSR = RACE STRIKE RATE

nanook

NANOOK 8th January 2006 02:00 PM

Hello

To anyone who might be interested in following on from my original post Ms B Joesph has one first up starter today.
Sapphire Coast Race 7 No 7 Tacsai

The Rules I've entered in my database are:
include if spell count = 0
include if Trainer = Ms B Joesph
exclude if career starts = 0

** Past performances are no reflection of future performances so please bet according to your means.**

nanook

syllabus23 8th January 2006 03:58 PM

Quote..that all pro punters have confessed,that being that almost all of their profit comes from the few times a year that they go in for the kill with a horse
"All" pro punters,,,,where did they confess ????? and how did anyone get "all" af them to confess??????

These ridiculous sweeping statements are just so darned ludicrous.

NANOOK 8th January 2006 04:13 PM

RESULTS

1.) Sapphire Coast Race 7 No 7 Tacsai Lost

nanook

Racer 9th January 2006 06:56 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by NANOOK
RESULTS

1.) Sapphire Coast Race 7 No 7 Tacsai Lost

nanook

Note the first upper of a month ago 'Mind The Step 50\1' won again Nanook,
at 9\1 or 10\1 Rand. Sat.
A beaut. 60\1 in a month, neat when you are a good trainer and know your horse.
Thanks for relaying the first upper, maybe the next will do the job.

Kind Regards.


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