Sent you an email UB,

Will definitely keep you posted Speedy, I find the Neurals interesting as well. I've tried the whole do your own ratings thing but since I don't have a database I think its just pointless as i'm just basically guessing what factors to weight higher and by the time I do trial and error and see what works it could take me a decade. At least with the Neurals they are already done for you and all you have to do is simply adjust them to suit your needs or to what you believe yields the best result.

I wish I had a database because i'm a real numbers guy and love trial and error with facts and figures. Considering I work in financial planning thats no real surprise but I almost enjoy the thrill of the chase of finding a holy grail (something I can consistently bet to make me some bonus money on the side) rather then actually achieving it.

Anyhow it will be about another 2-3 weeks before I can give any kind of indication as to how my process is going but will certainly keep you all posted.

neural's
 

hi all,
i am a newby on this site,i love neurals.
i have a system.
this are my selections for racing on saturday 30th march
oakbank race 2----number 2=apres
oakbank race 7----number 2=avoid lightning
rosehill--race 6----number 2=it's a dundeel

good luck.

can you tell me if bhagwan is still about ,no posts lately
cheers .
bartle.

evajb001,

I tried replying several times to the email but internode keeps rejecting it. Here is my response to your system:

=============


Are you laying these or backing them ?

I tested it over 4 random months from 2012. Of those months only 1 month
showed a small profit of $2. The other months all lost considerably using
tatts figures but I didn't test betfair prices. Over the 4 months tested there was a return of $780.90 from 1111 selections. I didn't go test other months as it was losing and I assumed you were betting the selections.

==============

Hi UB,

Not sure why thats the case, maybe my inbox is too full? Anyway just thought i'd let you know its a lay system not a back system, can you re-test for me please?

Thanks

I have tested 4 months again (same 4 months) using betfair prices for laying.

Unfortunately it showed a loss just over 10% after commission. The increased prices on betfair always make it hard. For instance there was 1 winner at $810 on betfair which was under $100 on tatts.

I tested this using both methods of laying (straight $1 or to lose $100). Both laying staking methods showed a similar loss.

As a guide if your using tote odds for testing then you need to be under 50% returned if your method uses odds any higher then $20. I also tested your system under $20 but it showed an even larger loss but the odds range over $20 also showed a loss by itself.

I couldn't find a way to make it profitable.

Thanks UB for that reply, ill track myself as well shortly just for interest sake.

I decided to back my top adjusted neurals rater today using half kelly staking with the winning probability set to an average of my assigned winning % based on neurals and the winning % of the neurals top rater from all previous recorded events in races with the same or similar details. The following are the stats:

30 bets today 9 (30%) winners 17 (56%) placings
Average Winning Odds = $4.70
Average Place Odds = $1.84

Winners - Flat Stakes
Outlay $300
Profit $123
POT 41.00%

Winners - Half Kelly
Outlay $280.14
Profit $90.10
POT 32.16%

Placing - Flat Stakes
Outlay $300
Profit $30.50
POT 10.17%

Placing - Half Kelly
Outlay $280.14
Profit $1.20
POT 2.41%

Anyway just thought i'd post the results, guess flat stakes worked the best, wonder what the result would've been if I did some kind of chasing.

http://www.************************....au/form-guide/

Try the neurals here,,right hand side of page

oh dear it's not allowed..

There are other neurals beside r/s

I'm sure another neural site would be allowed to be shown here. Its not like pro-punter is in competition with neural sites. Just write out the name of the acual site without the www and dot com dot au parts and we can find it for ourselves.

punters paradise,,click on form guides,,select a race,,scroll down right side of page..

Okay I think they MAY BE in direct competition. :oops: