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-   -   2 2 Trial Results. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26445)

darkydog2002 13th May 2013 03:15 PM

Thanks Paul.Can I run this past you
Its my main method - Daily basis.
I wont divulge it on a open forum for obvious reasons.

199 Bet /75 Wins /Win % 37.6/ Av Dividend $2.80/POT 13.4 %

Cheers and Thanks
darky

PaulD01 13th May 2013 06:43 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Thanks Paul.Can I run this past you
Its my main method - Daily basis.
I wont divulge it on a open forum for obvious reasons.

199 Bet /75 Wins /Win % 37.6/ Av Dividend $2.80/POT 13.4 %

Cheers and Thanks
darky


Hi Darky

The results are listed below:

In terms of the 199 bet example and using a strike rate of 37.5%, the realities of mathematics dictate the following conclusions:

1. Your average bet size should not exceed 1.10% of your bank;
2. Using 1 line of deviation (68% of the time), you will likely have a drawdown of between 19-37 winners in terms of average bets;
3. Using 2 lines of deviation (95% of the time), you will likely have a drawdown of between 10-46 winners in terms of average bets;
4. There is still a 5% chance that your results will fall outside both points 2 and 3;
5. Depending on how long it takes to wager the 199 bets, your results in terms of POT% are likely (95% chance) to be between -10.1% and +30.1% POT after the 100 bets have been made and resulted.
6. The longest losing sequence will fall between 4 and 16 (95% of the time).

darkydog2002 14th May 2013 11:12 AM

Thank you Paul.
Your figures are right on the ball.

I will remain on 1 % of the orignal bank ($10000) which I am currently using and when the Bank doubles then 1 % of that.

Cheers
darky

PaulD01 14th May 2013 11:33 AM

Hi Darky

In terms of the 1%, this is an average bet size. I recommend that you bet proportionally to collect say 4% of your bank using the market price as the mechanism in which to determine bet size. This will ensure that your bank risk (drawdown) are less than what level staking will produce. Overall I expect the profit from level staking will be somewhat similar to proportional betting but with much lower risk to your betting capital.

E.g. If you bank is say $10,000 and the market price of your bet is $4 then you would have - $10,000 x 4% = $400 / $4 = $100 bet.

Hope that helps.

darkydog2002 14th May 2013 03:07 PM

Great idea Paul.
Will do.
Thank you.

shifty 14th May 2013 04:24 PM

wow, that sounds great paulD01, where can I get hold of your product?

darkydog2002 14th May 2013 04:33 PM

Hi Paul.
Echo Shiftys request.
I,m at darkydog2002at hotmail

PaulD01 14th May 2013 05:45 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by shifty
wow, that sounds great paulD01, where can I get hold of your product?


Hi Shifty and Darky

We have a number of products so Im not sure exactly what you are after.
See the link below for details:

http://www.propun.com.au/profession...ng_betting.html


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