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-   -   My Selections for today. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=9501)

Sportz 17th August 2005 02:47 PM

Well Desi, I hope you backed those ones I posted last night :D and not the ones I added today. :o

Desi 17th August 2005 02:58 PM

lol..Sportz, fortunately I wrote them down from last night...as I had to get up early for hospital tests...all OK (big smile!) Cheers!!!

Sportz 17th August 2005 03:26 PM

First impressions are often the best. If I had simply stuck to the ones I liked last night, I would have been way ahead:
SR1 Manton
SR2 Sun Song & Flighty
SR6 Snowden
SR7 On Potential
MR3 Jennings & Long Walk
BR7 Countess Bathory & Umaprince

But of course, today I've gone and added a few other bets in races I really should have left alone and that's eaten away at my profits.

Stix 17th August 2005 03:51 PM

........ I hear ya loud and clear .....
 
Sportz....

Sounds familiar (re: other thread I posted !!).... lol

Still excellent work fella

Stix

maverick1993 17th August 2005 04:18 PM

Just have the few tomorrow...been real lazy after such a good day today..
Rocky
Sea Counsel,Don Sequalo
Gosford
Dusty Daniel

good luck all..already looking forward to Saturday and reviewing the tapes..

I see Blue Ribbons got up today...always stuffed me why it was always so short..must be an excellent worker or something..
or it could of been just needing the better track,,

well done today guys...winners all round the place ..

Mr ed 17th August 2005 04:49 PM

Sorry i couldn't get Napa up for you Mav, you deserved one. Everything panned out as i expected but she just wasn't good enough, they probably just went a little to hard early. Still loked the winner for a fleeting moment, at least you had it e/w and didn't lose on it, i had a big go win only, but thats the way the cookie crumbles. Have had three really big goes the last couple of weeks on, Civil, Mazunda, and Napa but all the barstards keep running second.

Sportz 17th August 2005 05:25 PM

I agree with those ones you mentioned, Mav. But it's Townsville tomorrow, not Rocky. :)

Looks a hard day tomorrow. Nothing much really stands out. Here's a few I'm looking at:

Geelong R2-12 Colonel Mustard - A very good first run back in the autumn, then failed 2nd start and spelled. Has trialled very well leading up to this and has a great chance first up here for Freedman and Ryan. Price may be a bit short though. Others to look at might be 9, 10 & 13.

Geelong R3-9 Montoux - Not sure about this one. Looked very good at her first start in the autumn, but has done little since. Worked home quite well for 5th last start though and she's just starting to get to a distance that should suit. Each way chance. Others to consider are 8, 11 & 16.

Geelong R6-5 Tommifrancs Another impressive one from the Freedman camp. Two top wins at Sale and Geelong and certainly not disgraced when 3rd in town as favourite. Lightly raced and shows plenty of promise. This should suit. Main danger is number 1 Ilbach, especially if the track is wet.

Will look at them a bit more and work out what to do with these races tomorrow.

kiwi 17th August 2005 06:28 PM

Had Napa Sky win only as well Ed and we got a good run for our money, follow you most days you tip and I'm still well ahead.You Sportz and Mav continuosly give out the good oil and support it with decent comments.Keep up the good work.:)

saratoga samchaz 18th August 2005 03:29 AM

Hey mates! This is my first post on this site. I'm a Yank who loves horse racing and is always looking for an edge. Well, I think I've found it here. If I wasn't so lazy last night I would have gone to my local Turf Club and played Sportz selections. I planned on it but I didn't. Instead I stayed in and handicapped Weds. (here in the States) card for Saratoga. The fact that the pools here in America concerning Oz racing are very wild and different from yours, I think I should find some great overlays. The Australian simulcast here starts at 10 pm and is usually being played by action punters. The form is available but how many guys do you really think would come on a site like this to do some research? I've been on some other sites and picked up the universal race stats that I can't handicap without. With solid info from race fans like all of you, I definitely feel very confident on having the edge on my fellow Yankee bettors. This forum is excellent and you guys are astute players. Keep up the good work. I, too, had the early selections from Sportz and would have cleaned house. MY fault but thanks Sportz. Now I need Gosford and Geelong winners. PS My brother is moving to Western Australia inn a couple of weeks to work with a mining company in the bush near Perth.

saratoga samchaz 18th August 2005 03:41 AM

Just for reference:

Manton $8.50 $5.40 2.80
$2 ex 4-1 $34.90
Sun Song $5.70 3.20 3.40
ex 2-4 $21
Snowden $3.30 2.20 2.20

Moonee
Jennings $10.50 4.80 2.70
1-6 ex $26.50
1-6-4 tri $201.20
Napa Sky (Mr. Ed Kudos!!)
$14.50 to place $7.80 to show

I will confer with all of you later today before post time. If you have any access to Saratoga wagering, I have hooked up with some WHITE HOT trainers that are sometimes being overlooked. THe beauty of Saratoga is the underlay on the famous big time connections while the smaller outfits with better horses that day usually get overlooked. Steve Asmussen is connecting at over 50% for wins at the meet and paid $30 with his latest starter. HUH????? 9 wins for 17 starts pays $30. Makes sense to me.

Sportz 18th August 2005 06:31 AM

Hi,

Welcome to the forum. We already have one American punter on here called The Avenger.

Wow. A couple of good divs there, especially Manton and Napa Sky!!! From some of the divs that The Avenger has shown us, you sometimes get big overs on some of the winners here.

Don't expect winners like that all the time from me. I was very confident of those ones! But if I do have some that I like, I'll post them nice and early.

For those Aussies who don't know, US divs are based on a $2 unit and win, place & show refers to 1st, 2nd & 3rd.

Mr ed 18th August 2005 10:18 AM

Hey Samchez, good to see some yanks betting on ozzie racing, i think it's a great product.

Just a question, when you bet to place does your horse have to run second or can it win also? Likewise when betting to show does it pay only on third or any position you fill in the trifecta.

saratoga samchaz 18th August 2005 10:23 AM

Hey Sportz! I wouldn't hold any one to the day you had yesterday(pre late adds). Hell, even with the adds. I have to check the Aussie prices on those overs (Napa and Manton). Are your prices posted as the odds and not the pay off? I guess that's how it is done in Ireland as well as I recall when I went over and found my self at the most comfortable place on earth, the racetrack! Two things that re the same world-wide: horse racing and Irish Pubs. At every foreign track or Irish pub somewhere far from home, I see the same type characters as home. It takes about two minutes to get accustommed to the different lingo and I fell like I've been going there my whole life. Punchestown in Naas, Kildare was VERY NICE!!! I've found that turf breeding is turf breeding no matter where. It's great to see so many US sires in Aus. A Dynaformer upset the field in Saratoga today on the front end. I caught Satinspin (SPinning World-BC mile) at 1 1/16 Sunday(Aus) as well as chalky Jaffa Jonnie(DAnzig Connection-Turf Pedigree). The More Than Ready's seem to be taking to the turf and EL Prado continues to show why he is regarded as the top turf sire in North America, alongside Dynaformer. Here is one that you may not have heard of UNUSUAL HEAT, standing in California, his progeny are smoking the grass courses in Cali. and he is ranked 6th in money earned in NA above Storm CAt With Approval Royal Academy, Sadler's Wells, and AP INDY. He is definitely worth a look see if his runners make it to Van Diemen's Land> Sorry to ramble but I love this stuff!!!

W

saratoga samchaz 18th August 2005 10:31 AM

Thanks for the welcome, ED. THe runner can finish anywhere above what you place it and still get paid. If it wins and you bet show (Or place for that matter) you still do get paid, but show bets are notoriously small here(remember our fields are not as large as yours. I almost always bet my horse Win and Place, besides gimmicks. If your horse runs second, you might break even or even come out ahead a little rather than being mad about how close you came(while losing your proposition all together. In Aus, (as in Ireland) is place = 2,3,4th in most fields? And do you get paid for all three positions if your horse comes in 2nd? I can't remember how it works. I do know each way is Win and Place right?What does Avenger think of the idea of having a major advantage if you do your homework compared to the average player here in the US?

TheAvenger 18th August 2005 10:32 AM

Hi Samchez:

You are right about this forum being a bettor's edge in Oz. There are some excellent handicappers here. I've been playing the Aussie races for a couple of years now, and have learned a lot just by reading posts and asking questions. In fact, it was Sportz that turned me on to a couple of other sites (not forums) that have greatly helped my play, along with the fantastic tips here. Since we only get two tracks a night, and only the full card on weekends, it's tough to have great betting info and not be able to use it because our TAB doesn't take that track, that night. If you have any hot pix at Saratoga, do let me know. Best of luck

Regards,

Glenn

Gleter@cox.net

saratoga samchaz 18th August 2005 11:03 AM

I should have started on the Aussie racing a while back also. I can't go to the track at night and bet junk like Charlestown and Mountaineer. It's throwing money away. Anywhere horse racing is regarded as sport and not just as a degenerate gamble like the 50% take on the daily number, will make the game a million times better. Just look at Saratoga as compared to Aqueduct, but I'm sorry to say that horse racing in the US looks to be on it's last legs. There was an article in the form today about the attendance and handle being down for the Saratoga meet 1/2 way through and it was not pretty. The younger generation has no interest in the tradition and honor that horse racing was built on. They could care less if Go For Wand broke down as long as they cashed their $2 bet. I guess you are a Remington man. Then you are certainly aware of the Steve Asmussen magic. You can't go wrong there and he still is not getting over bet on the east cost (Usually). He paid $6 today at Monmouth (6 wins for 11 starts this year and 1 for 1 with Chris Decarlo on board) How did he even pay this in such a weak field? He had 7 races with 8 horses today at 4 different tracks and won 2 and placed in the rest, just getting beat on at least two of them. He is sometimes a short price, but the horses look like they should be those odds. He works all his horses in company and it helps to tell how good they are. For instance the 2nd at Saratoga Thursday. CASH FLOW drops from a Mdn Spl Wt to a Mdn Claim for Asmussen and some jockey named Jerry Bailey. His 2 yolds are always away from the gate first and that is huge in baby races. This baby worked with his top older mare Lady Tak and matched her on the slow going OKLAHOMA training track. The main competition may be Delaware Park Shipper (My home track and home of AFleet Alex) Five Star Dream trained by Mike Gorham and ridden by leading rider Edgar Prado. The horse adds blinkers drops into Mdn claim and travels 300 miles to face presumably better horses instead of making it easy on the juvenile filly. She also worked a bullet at Delaware. This type of behavior shows something because the money is not that much better to pick a much harder spot to try to break her maiden. I'll give you some more by tommorrow.

Stix 18th August 2005 12:10 PM

Thought for today... some of interest
 
Geelong Race 4-5 Bella Comand
She doesn't win too many (1 from 14), but was encouraged by last start and has placed here twice. Does like it wet and has B Shinn on board and from Barrier 4 will get a lovely run. Would want close to double figure odds.... but would accept e/way odds.

Geelong Race 6-5 Tommyfrancs
Very Smart Freedman horse again Shinn on board and should account for these, missed out last start but should make ammends.... not flash odds maybe exacta with 1,3,5,9

Geelong Race 7-7 Outcast Babe
Resuming and has won 3 of 7, finished 2nd to Diamond Hailey in a Barrier Trial, who has won in town and the trial was on the heavy so trak no worry. Has a good jock in Mertens....again want over 5's... but don't think I'll get it...

Gosford Race 5-4 Keepa Movin Dan
Consistent horse with nice first up effort. Only win has been over the 1200m and has ran second at track and the good track is a bonus.

Northam Race 1-11 Kim Tina
3yo Filly, a first starter By Theater out of Kim Mover. No trial form that I could find but is a speculative tip from a horsewhisper mate of mine. Just for Fun

Good Luck all....

Desi 18th August 2005 12:16 PM

Nice finish for Sea Counsel Mav...good start for me lol! Good luck for the rest of the day guys..

Sportz 18th August 2005 01:09 PM

Sorry about Montoux. I obviously over-rated her and I might have to sack her now I think. :o

Also apologise for not being able to get on and post earlier than this as I've found a few extra winners in the early races. Sorry about that.

Sportz 18th August 2005 01:14 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stix
Geelong Race 4-5 Bella Comand
She doesn't win too many (1 from 14), but was encouraged by last start and has placed here twice. Does like it wet and has B Shinn on board and from Barrier 4 will get a lovely run. Would want close to double figure odds.... but would accept e/way odds.


Well done. Nowhere near double figures but still okay!

Desi 18th August 2005 01:17 PM

Hey Stix, Great start with Bella Command...good stuff mate!!

Northam...Kim Tina was 2nd (nk) in a reasonable 400m trial 30/7 according to my trial BBook...also have 14 Tip The Angel (should be favourite) won a 900m trial at Lark Hill and was third to Blind Power in small field first up...

No 2 King Risca ran 2nd fastest trial time for the day at Belmont on a dead trk and could be one for a spec bet...should pay reasonable $$$...

Mr ed 18th August 2005 01:28 PM

Well done, Mav and Stix, couple of early winners.

Is $2.60 fixed price enormous overs for the Roller, i think so. He should be able to cross and lead easily from Super Elegant, who you would say can't beat it. The rest are all resuming and looking for further.

TheAvenger 18th August 2005 01:33 PM

Good call. Wish I'd had 2nd. I did have third!

Regards,

Glenn

Mr ed 18th August 2005 01:35 PM

And you Sports, didn't even see that Colonel Mustard well done. I didn't like him because in his trial (Which he won) he really sweated up badly. That may just be the way he races though, was he like that today?

Sportz 18th August 2005 01:42 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by saratoga samchaz
And do you get paid for all three positions if your horse comes in 2nd? I can't remember how it works. I do know each way is Win and Place right?


Yes, when we say each-way we mean Win & Place. But we only have 2 divs, not 3. Our 'place' is the same as your 'show', so if we back a horse to place, it can come 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Hope that helps.

maverick1993 18th August 2005 01:56 PM

Hi guys .. logged on to the account have enough profit to maybe fill the fuel tank up .. still for a lazy day ..i'm happy to be ahead ,,
got the tri 36 times in Townsville ,,you'd think i'd be rich but it paid hardly anything..
missed a couple of your tips guys ..but i might have a go at Country Joy e/w at Geelong in the 7th a bit of late mail i got this morning...i see stix likes outcast babe in the same race so i might save and play with tris..


good luck all ,, and it looks like plenty of winners around the place today as usual ,,well done :)

Stix 18th August 2005 02:15 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stix

Geelong Race 6-5 Tommyfrancs
Very Smart Freedman horse again Shinn on board and should account for these, missed out last start but should make ammends.... not flash odds maybe exacta with 1,3,5,9

Should be..... not flash odds maybe exacta with 1,3,7,9

Sportz 18th August 2005 02:22 PM

Kitchener's entered for the Cox Plate!!!

Sportz 18th August 2005 02:29 PM

Ski For Kings?

Well, I guess you could have had 1 & 5 as roving bankers from the field. I didn't.

Like you Stix, I wasn't too keen on that price for Tommifrancs.

Stix 18th August 2005 02:34 PM

....... tell me about it !!!!!!!!

Not happy Jan!

Mr ed 18th August 2005 02:43 PM

Could've easily backed the winner but didn't, his formlines read very well. He has run courageous seconds to horses like Mock and I forget but some three year old who went on to win at Flemington easily. And a very strong third at Sandown behind the smart Full Fathom. Also a second to Roly Toy who he gave heaps of weight to, and he ran third yesterday at the Valley. It's a hard game this isn't it.

Sportz 18th August 2005 02:48 PM

Yes, his form did seem okay when I looked at it again AFTER THE RACE WAS OVER!!!! A bit too late then.

luv2bet 18th August 2005 03:02 PM

Gday guys, Ive been away for a bit working, glad to see plenty of winners around the place still.
Just looking at townsville Race 7, two to clango. Looks to me a class above these horses here and anything near $4 that its showing now is great value. Can't fault his form at this distance or track and hes drawn to win. Weight shouldnt be a problem and is by far on top for my ratings.
MIght start having a look at 2morows fields.

racingnovice 18th August 2005 03:09 PM

I agree Luv2bet. I have him winning by a good margin :). Lets hope it works out that way.

Stix 18th August 2005 03:09 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stix
Geelong Race 4-5 Bella Comand
She doesn't win too many (1 from 14), but was encouraged by last start and has placed here twice. Does like it wet and has B Shinn on board and from Barrier 4 will get a lovely run. Would want close to double figure odds.... but would accept e/way odds.

Geelong Race 6-5 Tommyfrancs
Very Smart Freedman horse again Shinn on board and should account for these, missed out last start but should make ammends.... not flash odds maybe exacta with 1,3,5,9

Geelong Race 7-7 Outcast Babe
Resuming and has won 3 of 7, finished 2nd to Diamond Hailey in a Barrier Trial, who has won in town and the trial was on the heavy so trak no worry. Has a good jock in Mertens....again want over 5's... but don't think I'll get it...

Gosford Race 5-4 Keepa Movin Dan
Consistent horse with nice first up effort. Only win has been over the 1200m and has ran second at track and the good track is a bonus.

Northam Race 1-11 Kim Tina
3yo Filly, a first starter By Theater out of Kim Mover. No trial form that I could find but is a speculative tip from a horsewhisper mate of mine. Just for Fun

Good Luck all....
Geelong Race 4-5 Bella Comand WON $3.20 $1.50
Geelong Race 6-5 Tommyfrancs 2ND $1.30
Geelong Race 7-7 Outcast Babe 3RD $2.30
Gosford Race 5-4 Keepa Movin Dan UNPL
Northam Race 1-11 Kim Tina UNPL

Another profitable day....... Hope you went OK!

Stix

Sportz 18th August 2005 07:49 PM

Ed,

Our horse is back tomorrow. Mornington Race 7 number 1. :)

Mr ed 18th August 2005 08:48 PM

Yep, he's not without a chance either. Huge weight though, will have a little on him just in case.

maverick1993 18th August 2005 08:57 PM

Ipswich
*SmartnClassy ...doesnt win enough for me to get overly excited but likes this track,,good jockey and can run time..e/w odds ?
*Marnier ..good northern form ,,distance suits..fantastic last run...this is an open race so expecting good odds.. * Agrios ..has some ability been running on nicely of late ..no superstar though .. .if the odds are good i'll be on both..
*Conduit...another open race..great last run..needs luck from the barrier but has a good a chance as any...toppy the danger..
QueanBean
*Campaignor ..another that doesnt win that often..but last start was very good..should be huge odds ..worth an e/w
Taree
Strategic Plan...performing in harder races than this..big show here..
Mornington
Johnny Be Good.....gets the lead here..will be hard to catch ..this is his distance....big show..

Looking for some value tomorrow ..Confident with Strategic plan and Johnny..hoping for some value with the others..
also dont mind Special Langfur at Ipswich..gets the lead and will be hard to run down..not sure on the price though..

been a great week ..nice being ahead regardless of what happens tomorrow..
Saturday looks a big day ..
will drop in tomorrow to see if anyone has any specials..


Good Luck all :)

Sportz 19th August 2005 10:43 AM

A few I'm thinking about today:

MORNINGTON
R4-2 COINCIDE, 1 Amusing Twist (2,1 - 6,5,4,3)
R6-5 JOHNNY BE GOOD, 3 Vic By The Jug (5,3,6,4 - 2,7)
R7-7 DECLAREE, 1 Sonic Royal (7,1 - 5,4,9,3)

Stix 19th August 2005 11:36 AM

.....bit of value....
 
Don't normally tip non-metro meetings (nor interstate for that matter) ..... but what the heck....

Mornington
Race 5 #2 Hoplite
Inconvieneced last start here and was needing the run, might be looking for it a shade longer, but goes OK in Wet

Race 7 #2 Millenium Eagle
Won barrier trial, beating Satinspin and Runs On Ego in wet, has 57.5kg, but 1.5 claim with Austin. Has won at track and distance.... Obviously the (1) Sonic Royal and (7) Declaree will be the ones to beat....

Race 8 #3 Jygah
Won last start here and beaten by smart few last start, so form reads well has the barrier and conditions are OK. DIstance is only query

Ipswich
Race 6 #1 Doctor Hennessy
Very consistent horse who has run well in townand has a nice barrier, loves thr track and distance and should be nice value

Race 7 #11 Little Beautiful
Ran 2nd last start from a spell, another to have run in town and although drawn wide

Race 8 # 2 Marnier
Won last start, even though found a heap of trouble, would have streeted them, which is just as well, as it may bolster his price... here's hoping

Taree
Race 8 #7 Lucky Handout
Has hit form after close second and gutsy win last start, up in class nicely drawn and won this distance - hope we haven't missed the boat

Queanbeyan
Race 7 #4 Go Magpie (Carn the pies!)
Other than the name, this guy won last start after two promising efforts and last start was easy win... hopefully e/way odds

Good Luck....

Yours In Punting

Stix


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