EPL Round 21
 

For the second week in a row, there was a major upset. Man U lost at home to bottom-table Sheffield which would have paid any brave Sheffield followers 16 via decimal odds. If you had placed value bets in spite of congested fixtures, you would have lost 32%. Had you booked all underdogs equally, you would have gained 94%, the typical flag telling you there were congested fixtures. Round 21 also has congested fixtures as will the next few rounds.

Stay well!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 22
 

There are tests to decide if you are positive for COVID. We also have a test to see if fixtures are positive for congestion (besides being close together): what happened if you bet equally on all underdogs? Round 21 tested positive because an equal bet on all underdogs would have returned a 97% profit (the week before, the profit would have been 94%). The cure is a week between fixtures.

It is a good idea to set those congested fixtures aside. Had you placed the five value bets last week, you would have lost 36%, compared to our record of a 92% profit for values bets placed when fixtures were not congested.

Good health!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 23
 

I have to hurry up and get you Round 23 before it's over.

Round 22 "tested positive" for congestion in that betting on all the underdogs would have earned you an 86% profit, since Wolves, Brighton, Everton and West Ham all pulled off upsets.

Although Rounds 24 and 25 have a week before and after, most the of EPL teams play in Europa League, Champions League and FA Cup matches in between.

Enjoy,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 24
 

The next rounds are pretty complicated. The EPL fixtures for Rounds 23, 24 and 25 are each a week apart: no congestion there. However, in between Rounds 23 and 24 and in between Rounds 24 and 25 are FA Cup, European Champions League, Europa League and some EPL makeup matches. I determined that all matches for Round 24 are congested. When we get to Round 25, I'll let you know if any one those are not congested.

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 25
 

The scheduling has been so unfair to players, coaches and fans but there has been no alternative. Juergen Klopp tearfully said he didn’t think Liverpool could repeat. Training and preparing for upcoming matches have become haphazard due to testing and quarantining. Congested fixtures have made EPL matches, FA Cup matches, Champions League matches and UEFA Cup matches become a blur of action. It’s been so destructive to the top teams’ cohesiveness that if you bet equally on the underdog in all 160 congested fixtures, you would have made an 18% profit.

But, to cut COVID deaths, they are all doing the best they can. Godspeed to them.

I am sending you predictions for 13 matches. The first three listed matches, two before and one after the weekend, are make-up matches. Two other postponed matches need to be made up. The bottom 10 listed matches are the normal Round 25 weekend EPL matches.

The only match not involving congested fixtures is Brighton vs. Crystal Palace.

All the best,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 26
 

For Round 26, there are congested fixtures for Chelsea, Man U, Southampton, Leeds, Leicester, Arsenal, Man City and Tottenham. That leaves four matches with normal rest.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Update on congested fixtures for Round 26
 

The EPL has changed the schedule, inserting seven fixtures from Rounds 29 and 33 between Rounds 26 and 27. All matches for upcoming Round 26 are now congested.

EPL Matches from Rounds 29 and 33
 

The EPL is trying to shorten the season by moving later round matches between the already scheduled rounds. Matches from Rounds 29 and 33 will be played starting tomorrow, one day after the weekend round was over. Obviously, all of these fixtures are congested.

I went back over the 182 congested fixtures that I evaluated. Had you placed what normally would have been 66 value bets, you would have lost 21% on turnover. Had you bet equally on all 182 congested fixtures, you would have won 15% on turnover. Of course, bookmakers reduce offerings so they usually make about a 10% profit. That shows how much congested fixtures hurt the better teams. For the 50 matches that were not congested, 16 value bets returned a 93% profit on turnover.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 27 and one match from Round 33
 

The EPL added one match from Round 33 to the Round 27 matches. When I give you a round number, that is from the original EPL schedule. Matches will continue to be moved from the original schedule.

All matches except West Ham-Leeds are congested fixtures.

Best wishes to all,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 28
 

This weekend we will see what was originally scheduled as Round 28. The fixtures are congested for Arsenal, Tottenham, Man City, Chelsea, Man U and Liverpool due to midweek cup matches. That leaves five fixtures that are not congested.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

EPL Rounds 29 and 18
 

The EPL only scheduled four matches this weekend, three from what was originally to be round 29 and one from what was originally to be round 18.
Most of the EPL is playing FA Cup matches this weekend and are not available for scheduling. Arsenal also has a cup match so their EPL fixture is congested.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 30
 

For Round 30, there are congested fixtures for Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City and Man U due to cup matches.

The EPL teams have done remarkable well in their cup matches this season. Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea have reached the quarterfinals of the Champions League. Arsenal and Man U are in the quarterfinals of the Europa League. Man City, Chelsea, Southampton and Leicester are in the semifinals of the FA Cup. Man City will play Tottenham in the League Cup Final.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 31
 

Round 30 was a very successful week. My favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that weren’t drawn. Value bets were cashed by those that bet on Aston Villa and West Ham.

My one loss by a favourite was in a congested fixture when Chelsea lost 2-5 to West Brom that had decimal odds of 15.

I am posting my predictions for what was originally to be Round 31. Be aware that there are congested fixtures for Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal and Man U.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 32
 

Round 31 went well. Those that placed value bets on Newcastle and Wolves cashed. There was a 38% profit on turnover for Round 31, bringing the season’s profit on turnover (while avoiding congested fixtures) to 73%.
The reason there are 7 matches shown for Round 32 is that the other three matches would conflict with FA Cup weekend semifinal matches for four EPL teams.

The Round 32 matches go through Tuesday. There are congested fixtures for Arsenal, Liverpool, Man U and Chelsea. That leaves un-congested fixtures for Everton-Tottenham, Newcastle- West Ham and Wolves-Sheffield.

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 33
 

After these eight games from what originally was to be Round 33, the EPL will be caught up to the original schedule except for two postponed matches that have to be made up.

Of these eight matches, the only un-congested fixtures are for Liverpool-Newastle, Sheffield-Brighton and Wolves-Burnley.

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 34
 

The EPL schedule has now caught up as of what was originally to be Round 34, except for two matches that were postponed from earlier rounds.

For Round 34, there are congested matches for Chelsea, Man City, Man U, Arsenal and Tottenham.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 35
 

There will be Champions and Europa League matches at midweek before Round 35 and several midweek matches after the round. The only matches without congested fixtures are Fulham-Burnley, Leeds-Tottenham and Wolves-Brighton.

Be well,

Ray Stefani

EPL Rounds 19,32,34 and 36
 

The 5 congested fixtures at midweek will be followed by 8 weekend matches. If the games are actually played, then all teams will have completed was was originally to be the first 36 rounds. There will then be two rounds left (maybe).

The round just ended was typical when there are 7 congested fixtures. If you bet equally on all congested fixture underdogs, you would have made a 110% profit on turnover.

Be well,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 36 (8 games)
 

Here are my predictions for the remaining matches of what originally was to be round 36. This is actually the 40th round played. All the remaining 28 matches have congested fixtures.

Man U was victimized by having to play 2 matches in 3 days, losing both. As per usual, an equal bet on all 5 underdogs in the congested fixtures would have earned a 58% profit, bringing the season profit to 21%, betting on all 241 underdogs in congested fixtures.

Home advantage? In 352 matches, the home teams have won 130, drawn 81 and lost 141, the legacy of lacking home fans.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Value Bet Results So Far
 

I should have brought you up to date on value bets. There have been 352 matches so far. After the first 28 matches where we were waiting to see if ratings settled out, there have been 83 matches without congested fixtures. If you followed my betting rules, you would have made 33 value bets, of which 18 would have cashed for a profit on turnover of 61%.

Among the 241 congested fixtures were what would have seemed to be 78 value bets. Of those, only 21 would have cashed for a loss on turnover of 23%.

The team managers have to be careful not to exhaust players during congested fixtures so the teams are not necessarily at the same strength as when the ratings were calculated.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 37
 

All teams have now played 36 matches, leaving what was originally to be rounds 37 and 38 which will be played at midweek and next weekend to end the season with congested fixtures.

Stay well everyone,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 38
 

Here is the last round for the season. All fixtures are congested.

Good luck and good health to all of you,

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray. Hoping your great models are well rested and ready for a new season 👍 Looking forward to your weekly predictions

The new season is here
 

Hi Fatcat. Good to hear from you again.

I have deadlines to meet for some sports research. It will take a few weeks to catch up and get my predictions started. Usually, the first few weeks are pretty iffy anyway, as new teams get started and rating settle a bit from where we left off last year.

All the best to everyone!

.

EPL Round 4
 

Hi soccer friends.

I had some sports research deadlines that made me late getting started. I was really happy about my Tokyo Olympics analysis. Not only did the swimming and athletics gold medal winners do better than the Rio winners, they improved more than the Rio and London winners, in spite of COVID. They did their best and they succeeded. There is a lesson about not letting the difficult beat you.

The EPL is doing its best too. There is normal scheduling. There won't be any congested fixtures until late November through the New Year, but that is always the case.

Newly promoted Brandtford and Watford are mid-table, talk about perseverance!

I ran the first three rounds and my higher rated teams won 77% of the games not drawn. We are off to a good start.

There is a week off before Round 4.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 5
 

At the start of each season, I advise being cautious with betting and watch ratings adjust for the first four rounds. On one hand, after four rounds, my favourites have won 74% of the matches not drawn. That quite high for this early. On the other hand, I am concerned that newly-promoted Brentford and Watford may be overrated after early upset wins. They both lost during round 4. We should wait a few more rounds before thinking about betting on them to see how they do. Arsenal has done very poorly and is close to relegation, so their rating dropped a lot. We better wait a few rounds to see if they are going to rebound.

As for round 5: Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Liverpool and Leicester all play Champions League or Europa League matches this midweek. That means they have congested fixtures for upcoming round 5. Worse than that, the entire EPL plays mid-week League Cup matches between round 5 and round 6 so rounds 5 and 6 have congested fixtures for all teams.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 6
 

Do you feel really busy right now? Think about Man City, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea, Leicester and West Ham. At the end of Round 7, they will have played 7 matches in 21 days for Champions League, Europa League, League Cup and EPL competitions.

In mid week before Round 6, all the EPL teams will play League Cup matches so Round 6 has congested fixtures for all teams.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray,
10/1 Man Utd to win the League, worth a punt now that they've recruited Ronaldo ?

Man U to win EPL
 

Hi Paddy,

On one hand. Man U lost their last EPL match, last Champions League match and last League Cup match. On the other hand, Ronaldo has been scoring and he might light a fire under them for losing to Aston Villa. If you have that feeling, what he heck, take a flyer and enjoy the challenge.

Good luck,

Ray

EPL Round 7
 

If you didn’t already know that all the fixtures were congested for Round 6, the four draws and the fact that betting on all the underdogs would have created a profit certainly tells you that the fixtures were congested.

For Round 7, fixtures are congested for Man U, Chelsea, Leicester, West Ham, Liverpool and Man City due to mid-week Champions League and Europa League matches.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

The mystery of Arsenal 2021
 

The New Arsenal is at or below mid table for the EPL and for my rating system. This week’s EPL opponent, Brighton, is above them in both tables and playing at home. Of course, my system has Brighton as favourite. The bookmakers have Old Arsenal as favourite, which is understandable as they have had some recent success and money will follow them. Which Arsenal will take to the pitch for the match? I think we need to watch Arsenal for a few more weeks to see which Arsenal is playing this season.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 8
 

Round 8 will be played 16-18 October. In mid-week after Round 8, Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Liverpool, Leicester and West Ham will play cup matches. Their Round 8 matches are congested fixtures.

Good Luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 9
 

Because there are Champions League and Europa League matches in mid-week just before Round 9 and then there are English League Cup matches in mid-week just after Round 9, there are only two matches in Round 9 without a congested fixture: Crystal Place vs Newcastle and Everton vs Watford.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 10
 

Similar to last round, becasue of Champions League, Europa League and League Cup matches, only one match (Wolves vs Everton) is not congested. The many congested fixtures, huge upsets and upcoming holiday congested fixtures make for inarticulate ratings. I will post again after the holidays when I feel we are seeing some consistency.

All the best,

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray. Any comments, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer situation.

Ole Gunnar Solskjær
 

Over the years, I have spent a lot of time in Norway. It’s a country where they show immense respect for each other and work together in mutual cooperation. It is not a country where, when something goes wrong, someone is likely to take over and be critical of the source of the problem and fix it now. Instead, the problem would be cured over time, showing respect to all involved. They work as equals. Olle Gunnar Solskjær had his greatest success coaching in beautiful Molde where the players and he found solidarity.

He ought to sit down with Ronaldo and the two of them jump in there, tell everyone where the problems are and crack the whip until defence and everything else has improved. That is just not in his character as a Norwegian. He delegates. Man U probably needs a new leader who uses Ronaldo as an ally to light a fire under the team until they play like one.

EPL Round 11
 

I decided to post my predictions for Round 11, since only four matches have congested fixtures, speaking of which, if you bet on all underdogs in Round 10 with all but one fixture being congested, you would have had an outrageous profit of 187%.

For Round 11, due to Champions League and Europa League action, Chelsea, Leicester, Man U, Man City, West Ham and Liverpool are involved in congested fixtures.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 12 (sort of)
 

I thought I’d share one more set of (perilous) predictions, considering how chaotic this season has been. It made sense last season that, without fans, there would be no home advantage. so home and away teams had the same win-loss record. This season it makes no sense that home teams have a record of 40 wins, 40 losses and 30 draws. The early season rising superstar Brentford was mid-table last week with a goal difference of zero. They lost at home to bottom table Norwich, then having a goal difference of -22. That was odd for any rating system.

There will be five congested fixtures in round 12: Leicester-Chelsea, Liverpool-Arsenal, Man City-Everton, Watford-Man U and Wolves-West Ham. Because of the usual holiday EPL schedule, all matches for rounds 13-21 are congested. I will start sending predictions with round 22.

Happy holidays!

Ray Stefani

EPL round 16, all matches are congested fixtures
 

Even though all fixtures in round 16 are congested, I thought I'd let you know what the computer has to say.

Home advantage has jumped up since my last post. For rounds 11-15, the home teams have won 74% of the matches not drawn.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 17
 

I am still trying hard to believe that in round 16 which had all of congested fixtures, my favourites won all 8 of the matches not drawn. The home teams continue to surge with 7 wins in 8 games not drawn.

Round 17 has all congested fixtures with the usual warning. I'd enjoy another surprisingly good set of predictions, but we'll see what actually happens at mid-week. I am not holding my breath.

Ray Stefani